I reflect upon India’s security concerns and strategic interests with regards to Tibet, with whom we share a common border. Situated on the lofty Tibetan Plateau on the northern side of the Himalayas, it is nicknamed the ‘Roof of the World’ for its towering peaks. An autonomous region of China, located in a highly geographically sensitive area, it was formally known as the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). It plays a significant role as a buffer zone between India and China, contextual in view of the episodes at Doklam, Galwan and Tawang and India’s longstanding border dispute with China.
A vast mountainous region, Tibet was poorly developed for a long time, though recent improvements are moving forward at a breathtaking pace. The Galwan clash spurred China to react with alacrity, forcing the country to make drastic improvements in the road, rail and air infrastructure in the TAR. This in turn forced India to reciprocate, manage intelligence and monitor Chinese activity so that we are not surprised by any precipitate Chinese action. China’s infrastructure development, especially transportation infrastructure with commensurate improvement in military facilities has a bearing on India’s security concerns and strategic interests. For instance, infrastructure will improve Chinese trade and connectivity with Nepal and Bhutan opening up new trade routes and economic possibilities detriment to India’s interests in the region. Not just security, use of water resources is a major area of concern. Several rivers that flow into India – the Indus, the Sutlej, the Brahmaputra, (called the Yarlung Tsampo in Tibet) – originate from the Tibetan plateau. Construction of hydroelectric projects or dams would impede water flow and impact India’s water security downstream.
China has several reasons to focus on the TAR. Firstly, China considers Tibet as its integral part and wants to exert strict political control. Improving the infrastructure is a means of strengthening its administrative presence and influence. Secondly, by building roads, bridges, railways and airports, China intends to promote economic growth and regional integration to facilitate the movement of goods, people and resources by improving connectivity with other parts of China. This gels with their geopolitical ambition revolving around the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which requires Tibet to be connected with neighbouring countries through infrastructure projects. Thirdly, China has introduced several migration and settlement programmes to integrate Tibetans into mainstream Chinese society, going to the extent of changing the demographic composition of the region. This would only strengthen their sovereignty claims with a strong physical presence a counter to any international challenge to its authority. Fourthly Tibet is rich with mineral resources and extraction and transportation contributes to China’s industrial and economic development.
So what does infrastructure on the China side look like? TAR is divided into seven prefecture level divisions with an area of 12,28,400,000 sq. km and a population of 30 lakh with Lhasa city, the capital having a population of 5.6 lakh. Most infrastructure facilities have dual roles involving the armed forces and civilians so innovative financing and other progressive methods are used even though a prefecture finds it challenging to repay the loans taken for construction. While the infrastructure development ecosystem covers the entire TAR, the southwest and southern portion adjacent to the Indian border ranging from the Kumaon region across Nepal, Bhutan right up to Arunachal Pradesh is of special concern to India. If China were to launch an aggression it would probably be from these prefectures.
Several national highways such as the highway G318 from China’s major economic and financial hub, Shanghai, end up in the TAR traversing through really picturesque routes in China, going past a massive hydropower project, currently under construction on the river Brahmaputra. Three times the size of the ‘three gorges dam’, this 67,500 megawatt hydropower project, is being built to draw water by damming the Brahmaputra with a series of dams, taking water through a tunnel using a series of turbines with the water flowing back into the Brahmaputra river just before it enters India. The area is highly seismically sensitive and landslide-prone and would have severe repercussions for India. This was where an Arunachali youth had crossed over in April 2020 perhaps because his curiosity got the better of him, only to be arrested by the Chinese and later released!
In a prefecture level sub-sector, typically four airports are 300 km apart from each other. Typically the southern prefecture has the ‘Nyingchi Mainling airport’, a greenfield airport with a 3,000-m-long concrete runway and only 213 km from India’s Dibrugarh airport. The second, Lhasa Gonggar airport has two 4,000-m-long runway, located 62 km south of Lhasa, connected by an excellent expressway with prominent missile sites and UAV hangars close by. The third, Kangding airport has one 4,000-m-long runway, the fourth Shannan Lhunze airport has one 4500-m-long runway. In comparison to these four airport runways, India has one 2800-m runway at the Dibrugarh airport.
Rail infrastructure in this southern prefecture is the 1629 km Sichuan-Tibet railway line operating since 2018. Several more lines are under construction, close to potentially significant hubs for future military operations. The road infrastructure in this prefecture includes eight different highways, expressways, and provincial highways. The G318 highway is typical of the sector and terminates at Zhangmu, a border town with Nepal. Another expressway, the G 4218, a portion of which runs parallel to the G318 highway has a 13-km-long tunnel with 93% of the expressway running through tunnels and bridges! Another national highway, the G 219 runs from Aksai Chin with access to all Indian forward defence posts right all along Aksai Chin to Arunachal Pradesh. A greenfield national highway is only 40 km from Gelling, an Indian border town in Arunachal Pradesh, while another, the G560 national highway connects to the Indian border at Sela.
Evidently considerable heavy Chinese investment in infrastructure in airports, rail and roads, became visible after the Galwan clash. China uses innovative engineering skills and techniques to overcome difficult high altitude terrains which no doubt result in unprecedented tourist booms, expanding Tibet’s mining resources and simultaneously serving China’s strategic and military objectives vis-a-vis India. The road infrastructure network in Tibet will increase China’s tactical and logistics capability opposite India’s forward areas. Their 67,500 MW hydroelectric project has major strategic implications only India now needs to have a series of dams to control release of water because a dam failure could result in sudden flooding requiring countermeasures to overcome any Chinese misadventure.
India must constantly monitor Chinese activity, the environment impact caused by large infrastructure projects, concerns about human right violations and cultural suppression are sensitive issues both on the domestic and international fronts. Significantly, Tibet has epoch-making cultural and religious value for people in India particularly the Tibetan Buddhist community with many Tibetan refugees having sought refuge in India. Any major development in infrastructure will impact the flow of pilgrims and interactions between the Tibetan diaspora and cause a spillover leading to a refugee influx and security challenges.
Reading Colonel (retired) Parappil Madhavan’s report on ‘An Overview of Tibet Infrastructure’ prepared for the Indus International Research Forum (IIRF) makes one realise that India too must gear up to face any aggressive posture resulting from the infrastructure build up by China. Fortunately, India is already equipped with strategically located airports at Hashimara, Tejpur, Chabua and Jorhat, with the strategic Trans Arunachal Frontier highway meant to improve connectivity, accessibility and socio-economic development. A railway infrastructure link exists right up to Naharlagun and a Rajdhani Express terminates close to Itanagar. India is most decidedly poised to meet the Chinese challenge!
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