This article is a summary of important events that have taken place in last one week affecting, India’s national security.
Countering external & Internal Security Challenges
Bomb Hoax Crisis: 50 Flights Receive Bomb Threats; Airlines Face Rs 600 Crore Loss in 9 Days
Within just 24 hours, approximately 80 flights faced bomb threats, severely disrupting airline operations and causing major delays for passengers. Although these threats were ultimately determined to be false, the resulting disruption has led to an estimated Rs 600 crore loss for airlines, as reported by former airline officials.
Rising Costs of Threat-Induced Disruptions
Over a nine-day period, more than 170 flights received bomb threats, with several international flights even being diverted. On average, a domestic flight disruption costs around Rs 1.5 crore, while the expense rises to Rs 5-5.5 crore for international flights, according to a former airline finance official. Based on this estimate, the overall loss due to these 170 flight disruptions totals around Rs 600 crore. Costs vary based on aircraft size and route duration, with wide-body planes incurring higher operational costs.
Strengthening Security Measures and Legal Actions
Authorities have enhanced the Bomb Threat Assessment Committee (BTAC) protocols to counter the wave of internet-based threats effectively. The government is also proposing legislative amendments to The Suppression of Unlawful Acts against Safety of Civil Aviation Act (SUASCA), 1982. These changes would allow authorities to arrest and investigate perpetrators of bomb threats without a court order, even when the aircraft is grounded. Additionally, stringent punishments, including placing offenders on the no-fly list, are under consideration.
Future Steps to Combat Hoaxes
As bomb hoax calls continue to destabilize the airline industry, these planned reforms signal the government’s commitment to ensuring the safety and smooth operation of air travel in India. With stricter laws and potential penalties on the horizon, authorities aim to create a deterrent against such disruptive activities, protecting both passengers and the airline industry from further financial and operational harm.
Addressing Delhi’s Pollution Crisis: Nudging Farmers Towards Sustainable Solutions
Delhi’s pollution crisis, characterized by grey, sooty clouds and the frothing Yamuna River, is a recurring nightmare. While vehicular pollution and industrial emissions play significant roles, the underlying issue stems from our failure to adopt ecological thinking. As citizens continue to bear the brunt of poor air quality, it becomes clear that unsound policy decisions, combined with our disconnection from nature, are at the core of the problem.
The Deteriorating Air Quality in Delhi
Delhi’s air quality, already poor for most of the year, worsens drastically as winter approaches. While year-long contributors such as vehicular pollution, unchecked industrial emissions, and construction dust are responsible, stubble burning remains an episodic but significant factor. Despite being well-documented for over a decade, little progress has been made in addressing the causes of this toxic air.
The Role of Farmers in Stubble Burning
Although some responsibility lies with farmers for burning stubble, the larger issue is rooted in flawed government policies. Paddy cultivation was introduced to Punjab not as a traditional crop but as a measure to fill the nation’s food reserves. With the introduction of the minimum support price, rice farming expanded. Farmers were further encouraged to adopt high-yielding seeds and machinery through the “Green Revolution.”
However, in a bid to conserve water, the government shifted the paddy sowing season from April to June, shortening the gap between harvest and the Rabi sowing season. This left farmers with insufficient time to clear their fields, making stubble burning a quicker solution.
The Failure of Technology and Policy
To address this, the government introduced subsidies for super seeders and other machinery, but the solution proved ineffective. The machines were incompatible with the low horsepower tractors used by most farmers, making them impractical for widespread use. Despite years of investment, these technological solutions have not alleviated the problem.
Long-Term Solutions: Promoting Organic Farming
In addition to immediate financial incentives, a long-term strategy must focus on promoting organic farming. Aggressive policies aimed at transitioning to organic agriculture can help restore soil health, benefit the rural economy, and reduce the dependency on chemical-intensive farming methods. Organic farming will not only mitigate environmental damage but also provide farmers with sustainable livelihood options, paving the way for a healthier ecological future.
DRDO’s Breakthrough in Hypersonic Missile Technology: Boosting India’s Strategic Deterrence
A Milestone Achievement in 2024
The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) achieved a major breakthrough in hypersonic missile technology on November 16, 2024, with the successful flight test of a long-range hypersonic missile from APJ Abdul Kalam Island, Odisha. This accomplishment positions India among an elite group of nations, including the United States, Russia, and China, capable of developing and deploying advanced hypersonic weaponry. The missile, capable of reaching speeds of Mach 6 and ranges exceeding 1,500 km, enhances India’s strategic deterrence for all three armed forces.
Understanding Hypersonic Weapons
Hypersonic weapons fall into two primary categories:
- Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs): Launched via rockets, these glide toward their targets.
- Hypersonic Cruise Missiles: Powered by scramjet engines, they sustain high speeds during flight.
Traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound), these weapons can penetrate advanced missile defense systems such as THAAD or S-400. Hypersonic speeds are categorized further:
- Mach 5 to Mach 10: Hypersonic speeds.
- Mach 10 to Mach 25: High hypersonic speeds.
Historical Context of Hypersonic Technology
Though often dubbed the “technology of the 21st century,” hypersonic research dates back to the 1930s. The V-2 missile of World War II, launched in 1942, was the first human-made object to reach space, traveling to an altitude of 176 km. Modern developments have expanded these technologies for advanced military applications.
Global Use and Development
Hypersonic weapons gained significant attention during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, where Russia became the first country to use these weapons in combat, notably deploying the Kh-47 Kinzhal missile at speeds exceeding Mach 10. However, the limitations of hypersonic systems were also exposed, with Ukraine successfully intercepting a Kinzhal missile using the Patriot Air Defense System.
Globally, the focus has shifted to developing HGVs and missile defense systems capable of countering hypersonic threats. However, the development of these technologies remains a long-term endeavor.
India’s Hypersonic Advancements
India’s hypersonic research, led by DRDO and private sector players like BrahMos Aerospace, has been underway for over 15 years. Key milestones include:
- September 7, 2020: Successful test of the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV), achieving speeds of Mach 6.
- November 16, 2024: Validation of critical subsystems and demonstration of advanced terminal maneuverability.
India’s hypersonic missiles boast low-altitude flight capabilities, rendering adversaries’ missile defense systems ineffective while bolstering India’s deterrence.
Future Projects: BrahMos-II and HGV-202F
India is developing the BrahMos-II, a hypersonic scramjet-propelled missile with a range of 1,500 km. Testing is expected to begin in 2025, with operational deployment by 2028. Additionally, HTNP Industries, an Indian startup, is developing the HGV-202F, a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of achieving speeds of Mach 15 or more, potentially deployable on platforms like the Agni-V ballistic missile.
Strengthening India’s Deterrence Architecture
2024 has been a landmark year for DRDO, marked by significant achievements:
- Agni-V MIRV Test (March 2024): Demonstrating multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle capabilities.
- Phase-2 Ballistic Missile Defense System Test (July 2024): Advancing India’s missile defense capabilities.
- Hypersonic Missile Test (November 2024): Cementing India’s position in cutting-edge military technology.
These milestones significantly reinforce India’s nuclear deterrence architecture and demonstrate its technological prowess in defense innovation.
Improving India-Taliban Relations: A Pragmatic Approach
Taliban’s Diplomatic Push
The Taliban regime, seeking international recognition, has taken a significant step by appointing an acting consul at the Afghan mission in Mumbai. This move underscores their intent to strengthen diplomatic ties with India, a country with which Afghanistan shares historical connections.
India’s Engagement with the Taliban
While New Delhi has not officially recognized the Taliban regime, known for its human rights abuses, it has been progressively building bridges with the de facto rulers of Afghanistan. A recent high-level delegation from India’s Ministry of External Affairs met with the Taliban’s acting Defence Minister to discuss expanding bilateral relations, including humanitarian assistance and potential use of the Chabahar port.
Strategic Considerations
The growing proximity between India and the Taliban can be attributed to several factors:
- Deteriorating Indo-Pak Relations: The escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, marked by cross-border attacks, have pushed the Taliban towards India as a potential ally. India, itself a victim of cross-border terrorism, sees an opportunity to leverage this situation.
- China’s Influence: China’s proactive engagement with the Taliban, including the appointment of an ambassador, has prompted India to strengthen its presence in Afghanistan. India recognizes the Taliban’s enduring power and seeks to safeguard its strategic interests.
By adopting a pragmatic approach, India aims to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape and secure its position in the region
Pakistan’s Proxy Play in Jammu & Kashmir: A Deepening Threat
- Escalating Terrorism in J&K: A Recent Surge
In the last 15-20 days, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a concerning escalation in terrorist activities, with nine attacks targeting non-local laborers, marketplaces, security forces, and civilian infrastructure. This upsurge includes several high-profile attacks in the Jammu region over the past two to three years, even claiming the lives of highly trained Indian special forces. This pattern raises a critical question: What is Pakistan’s endgame?
- Conventional Theories Fall Short
Most analysts, veterans, and journalists tend to offer conventional explanations, attributing Pakistan’s actions to its desire to keep the Kashmir issue alive post the abrogation of Article 370, internationalize the conflict, or balance its internal power dynamics. However, these perspectives may overlook deeper, more complex motivations that drive Pakistan’s proxy war in the region.
- Ground Reality: Infiltration and Foreign Militants
During a recent visit to various parts of Kashmir and the Jammu region, I observed significant infiltration by foreign terrorists. While exact numbers are hard to ascertain, estimates suggest there are at least 120 foreign terrorists operating in these areas. These individuals are highly trained, some with combat experience alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan, including Pakistani Army regulars and special forces operatives. Armed with M4 assault rifles equipped with advanced night vision and telescopic sights, they pose a significant challenge to Indian forces, who are still reliant on outdated AK47 and INSAS rifles with limited night combat capabilities.
- Declining HUMINT and Shifting Tactics
The Indian special forces are facing substantial challenges due to a decline in human intelligence (HUMINT). Since 2016, there has been an over-reliance on technological intelligence (TECHINT), resulting in a degraded HUMINT footprint. Additionally, flawed policing practices and poor leadership have further eroded the quality and quantity of intelligence. Meanwhile, Pakistan has revamped its approach, recruiting new overground workers (OGWs) who operate on a need-to-know basis, reducing their exposure and risk of capture.
- TECHINT and Local Support: An Alarming Combination
Foreign terrorist groups have adapted their communication strategies, either going radio silent or using sophisticated Ultra sets that remain undeciphered. Contrary to popular belief, local support for these terrorists persists. The narrative that Pakistan has lost its ground support in Kashmir is misleading and contributes to a false sense of security in Delhi. Reports suggest that bureaucratic channels are promoting a narrative that the Article 370 abrogation has ended militancy, creating complacency within the Indian establishment.
- Emerging Threats from Transnational Terrorist Groups
Alongside Pakistan-backed groups, there is growing support for transnational terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, ISIS-K, and the Muslim Brotherhood. The younger generation in Kashmir, with a worldview shaped by religious extremism, is more susceptible to radicalization. Communities traditionally seen as pro-India, like the Gujjars, Bakarwals, and Paharis, are also showing signs of disenchantment, potentially strengthening the terror ecosystem.
- Pakistan’s Strategic Diversion
Despite its economic woes and internal challenges from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch rebels, Pakistan is increasing its proxy activities in Kashmir. This could be a tactic to prevent India from exploiting Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities or as a retaliation for alleged Indian support to anti-Pakistan groups in Balochistan. Additionally, recent communication intercepts suggest a shift in targets, with instructions to focus on Hindu civilians, pilgrims, and tourists—indicating an attempt to stoke communal tensions in India.
- Interoperability Among Terrorist Groups
There is evidence of increased cooperation among various terrorist factions. For instance, M4 rifles typically used by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) cadres have been recovered in Kashmir’s Bandipora, a region usually dominated by The Resistance Front (TRF). This interoperability complicates counter-terrorism efforts and challenges existing theories about infiltration routes and operational areas.
- Assessing Pakistan’s Motivations: Multiple Scenarios
The renewed militancy could be driven by multiple strategic objectives:
- Sustaining Militancy: To retain influence in Kashmir post-370 abrogation.
- Internal Distraction: Diverting Indian focus away from Pakistan’s internal strife.
- Retaliation: Responding to perceived Indian interference in Pakistan’s internal conflicts, especially in Balochistan.
- Coordinated Large-Scale Attacks: There are indicators that Pakistan may be planning a significant coordinated attack, possibly leveraging foreign terrorists to incite civil unrest in J&K and beyond.
- The Role of External Actors
The involvement of external actors cannot be ruled out, especially considering recent disengagements between India and China. There are growing signs of anti-India elements being nurtured in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and even in Western countries, suggesting a deeper conspiracy to destabilize India. This raises concerns about a larger, externally-supported offensive against Indian interests.
- Strategic Silence in Kashmir: A Warning Sign
Interviews with locals in Kashmir reveal a worrying “strategic silence.” Young Kashmiri students hinted at an ominous undercurrent, stating that when Kashmiris are silent, it often precedes major upheaval. This sentiment underscores the need for Indian agencies to broaden their perspective beyond traditional counter-terrorism operations and consider the larger geopolitical dynamics at play.
- Conclusion: A Need for a Comprehensive Strategy
The recent spike in terrorist activities in J&K is a clear indication of Pakistan’s evolving strategy. Indian agencies must adopt a holistic approach, integrating HUMINT with TECHINT, and be vigilant of the broader geopolitical shifts. The complacency driven by perceived gains after Article 370 abrogation could lead to severe strategic setbacks. The need of the hour is a proactive and comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy that addresses both immediate threats and long-term security challenges.
The Perils of Outsourcing Military Data to a Private Company
A Risky Partnership The Indian Air Force’s recent MoU with Uber, while seemingly aimed at improving convenience for its personnel, raises significant security concerns. By sharing sensitive personal and location data with a private, foreign company, the IAF could be inadvertently compromising the security of its personnel and operations.
The Data Dilemma: A Double-Edged Sword Personal data, often overlooked as a mere convenience, has profound implications for national security. Every digital footprint, from social media posts to online purchases, contributes to a detailed profile that can be exploited by malicious actors.
The Threat Landscape Adversaries can leverage this data to launch targeted attacks, including:
- Psychological Operations: Harassing military personnel and their families to undermine morale.
- Disinformation Campaigns: Spreading false information to sow discord and confusion.
- Intelligence Gathering: Monitoring travel patterns and identifying vulnerabilities.
The Risks of Outsourcing Data Security
- Data Breaches: A history of data breaches at Uber highlights the risks associated with entrusting sensitive information to a private company.
- Legal Compulsions: Foreign companies may be compelled to share data with their respective governments, potentially compromising national security.
- Data Brokerage: The practice of selling personal data to third parties further exacerbates the risks.
A Call for Caution The military must prioritize data security and adopt stringent measures to protect sensitive information. Collaborations with private companies should be carefully scrutinized, and robust safeguards must be implemented to mitigate risks. By neglecting data security, the military could inadvertently weaken its defenses and jeopardize national security.
#COUNTERING CHINESE MULTI DOMAIN , GREY ZONE, HYBRID WARFARE
Here are five notable books that delve into the concept of unrestricted warfare in the context of Chinese military strategy:
1.”Unrestricted Warfare: China’s New Military Strategy” by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui
This foundational text outlines the theory of unrestricted warfare, advocating for a comprehensive approach that goes beyond traditional military tactics to include economic, cyber, and psychological warfare.
2.”The Art of War” by Sun Tzu
While not specifically about unrestricted warfare, this classic text on strategy and tactics has influenced Chinese military thought, including the principles behind unrestricted warfare.
3.”Chinese Unconventional Warfare: A Study of the Contemporary Chinese Military” by David M. Finkelstein
This book explores China’s unconventional warfare strategies and how they align with the principles of unrestricted warfare in modern conflicts.
4.”The Chinese Way of War” by David A. Graff and Robin Higham
This work examines historical and contemporary Chinese military strategies, including the concept of unrestricted warfare and its implications for international relations.
5.”Cyber Warfare: A New Domain of Conflict” by Jason Healey
Although broader in scope, this book discusses the role of cyber warfare as a component of unrestricted warfare, particularly in the context of Chinese military strategy.
These books provide a comprehensive view of unrestricted warfare, its theoretical underpinnings, and its practical implications in the context of Chinese military operations.
Trump Back in the White House: Implications for India,
Emotional Reactions to Trump’s Re-election
The emphatic re-election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States has sparked intense emotional responses across various sectors. For mainstream media, it signals a return to an alarmist narrative. For the Democratic Party, it represents a moment of reflection, as their identity politics have failed to resonate. Meanwhile, right-wing Indian social media has reacted with enthusiasm, suggesting a sense of kinship as an Indian appears to be heading to the White House. However, understanding the broader implications of Trump’s return requires moving beyond emotional reactions.
The American Deep State and Political Realignment
The re-election of Trump may accelerate the consolidation of the American deep state—a term encompassing the permanent executive, political allies, and corporate supporters aimed at preserving U.S. global dominance post-Cold War. This consolidation is likely to view Trump as a greater obstacle to their agenda than external threats like China or multilateralism. Consequently, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza may either reach resolution through multilateral efforts or be sidelined to facilitate a return to business as usual.
This political landscape will trigger a realignment, blurring the ideological lines between Democrats and Republicans. The recent campaign showcased this trend, with figures like Tulsi Gabbard challenging Democratic norms and Liz Cheney, a Republican, endorsing Democratic candidates. As political ideologies become less distinct, confusion may ensue among party members and voters alike—reflecting a situation reminiscent of India’s political landscape in the early 2000s, which required significant leadership to redefine its path.
Trade Dynamics and Economic Implications
For Trump, a focus on balancing trade and reducing deficits will be paramount. Drawing from his first term, we can anticipate a surge in American oil and gas exports to major markets like China, India, and Europe. This strategy, which contributed to economic growth and job creation during his previous administration, might face complications for India, potentially leading to job losses and visa disputes as Trump prioritizes domestic interests.
Foreign Affairs: A New Diplomatic Landscape
Trump’s emphasis on American crude oil exports will necessitate diplomatic negotiations with China and India, allowing them space to solidify their global positions with minimal American interference. Although some tensions may persist as Trump caters to domestic audiences, significant changes could arise. For instance, if India resumes oil imports from Iran—halted during Trump’s first term—it would suggest a shift towards a multipolar global reality. Additionally, the status of American jet engine supplies for India’s Tejas fighter planes will serve as a crucial indicator of the health of bilateral relations.
Potential Changes in Ongoing Conflicts
A Trump administration is likely to introduce a new approach to the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza. These conflicts may either conclude through multilateral agreements or be downplayed to restore normalcy. Following the pandemic, the U.S. has faced proxy wars and economic challenges; thus, a return to stability will be essential for both the U.S. and the global community.
Strategic Benefits and Commercial Challenges for India
In conclusion, while Trump’s victory presents strategic advantages for India, it may pose significant commercial challenges. This duality is a critical consideration for India’s foreign office as it navigates a new chapter in Indo-American relations, attempting to reconcile these conflicting dynamics
