Topics Covered
1. China’s Super Dam on the Brahmaputra: A Threat to India
2. Pakistan’s Airstrikes in Afghanistan: A Case of Irony and Escalation
3. The Economist’s Recognition of Bangladesh as ‘Country of the Year 2024’: A Dangerous Move.
4. Water Security-Interlinking Rivers: A Pragmatic Approach Needed
5. 2024: A Year of Diplomatic Triumphs and Challenges for India.
6. World At War-Guarding Indian Interests In West Asia With Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal
China’s Super Dam on the Brahmaputra: A Threat to India
A Himalayan Power Play: China’s construction of a massive dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (the Brahmaputra in India) raises serious concerns for downstream nations like India and Bangladesh. This project, part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, has the potential to disrupt water flow, exacerbate flood risks, and serve as a strategic tool for Beijing during times of conflict. The dam’s scale, exceeding even the Three Gorges Dam, makes its implications particularly significant.
The Yarlung Tsangpo: A River of Extremes: Originating in the glaciers of western Tibet at an altitude of 5,000 meters, the Yarlung Tsangpo is the world’s highest river. Its dramatic course through the Himalayas includes the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, a gorge more than twice the depth of the Grand Canyon in the United States. This unique geography makes it an attractive site for hydroelectric power generation.
A Dam of Unprecedented Scale: The proposed dam’s construction cost is estimated at $137 billion, surpassing the $34.83 billion spent on the Three Gorges Dam. With a projected annual electricity generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, it will dwarf the Three Gorges Dam’s 88.2 billion kWh output. This massive project aligns with China’s goals for carbon neutrality by 2060 and aims to boost related industries and employment in Tibet.
China’s History of Dam Construction and its Environmental Impact: China has a long history of large-scale dam construction, with over 22,000 dams exceeding 15 meters in height built since 1950. While projects like the Three Gorges Dam offer benefits like clean energy, flood control, and improved navigation, they also raise serious ecological and social concerns. These include biodiversity loss, displacement of millions of people, increased risk of landslides and sedimentation, and destruction of downstream habitats.
The Super Dam Project: Engineering and Environmental Challenges: The new dam project, under development for over a decade, faces significant engineering challenges due to its location on a seismically active tectonic plate boundary. While Chinese authorities assert the project’s safety, concerns remain about the potential for earthquakes, landslides, and ecological damage. The scale of potential displacement, though unknown, draws parallels with the Three Gorges Dam, which displaced 1.3 million people.
India’s Concerns: Water Security and Strategic Implications: The Yarlung Tsangpo is crucial for the water security of millions in India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. India’s primary concerns regarding the dam are:
Water Flow Reduction: The dam could significantly reduce downstream water flow, especially during the dry season, potentially impacting agriculture and livelihoods.
Weaponization of Water: The dam gives China the ability to control water flow, potentially using it as a strategic weapon by releasing large volumes of water during times of conflict or during India’s monsoon season, exacerbating floods.
Ecological and Environmental Risks: The dam’s location in an earthquake-prone zone poses risks of dam failure, flash floods, and other ecological disasters.
Hydropeaking Impacts: Fluctuations in water release for peak electricity demand (hydropeaking) can negatively impact downstream river ecosystems.
The Lack of a Water Treaty and China’s Stance: The absence of a bilateral water treaty between India and China exacerbates these concerns. China’s reluctance to engage in meaningful discussions and its disregard for international conventions on equitable water use further complicate the situation. There are also concerns about China’s plans to divert water to its parched northeast.
Past Warnings and China’s Defense: In 2016, an Assamese NGO warned of China’s plans for numerous dams and water diversion projects, predicting significant reductions in water flow to India. While China defends the project, stating it will not negatively affect downstream nations and that safety concerns have been addressed, skepticism remains.
The Need for Action: Transparency and International Cooperation: India and China have an agreement for data sharing on the Yarlung Tsangpo, but China has withheld this data in the past during periods of tension. India needs to take proactive steps to protect its interests, including pursuing bilateral negotiations and seeking international cooperation to ensure transparency and accountability in China’s dam projects. The lack of transparency in China’s planning and operation of dams is a major concern. The Brahmaputra’s massive hydroelectric potential is a powerful incentive for energy-hungry China.
Pakistan’s Airstrikes in Afghanistan: A Case of Irony and Escalation
Cross-Border Terrorism Comes Full Circle: Pakistan, long accused of sponsoring cross-border terrorism, now finds itself grappling with its own terror-related challenges. This ironic turn of events was underscored by recent airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan that killed around 50 people, including women and children. These strikes came just days after Pakistani security forces eliminated 11 suspected terrorists in the volatile Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
Relations between Islamabad and Kabul have deteriorated sharply, driven by the rise in operations by the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against Pakistani military and police forces. Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban of providing safe havens to TTP militants. However, the Afghan government remains in denial, exacerbating tensions between the two neighbors.
Diplomatic Duplicity and Regional Risks: The airstrikes highlight Pakistan’s duplicity. They occurred mere hours after Islamabad’s special representative for Afghanistan visited Kabul to discuss improving bilateral ties. This contradictory approach suggests Pakistan is only paying lip service to diplomacy while resorting to aggressive military actions. Such tactics could have dangerous consequences for the region, especially with the Afghan government warning that it will not leave this “cowardly act unanswered.”
Domestic Politics and Strategic Motivations: The Shehbaz Sharif-led government appears unwilling to show weakness, particularly amid ongoing talks with jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. The recent crackdown on PTI supporters has further alienated the public from the ruling coalition. The airstrikes, reminiscent of India’s Balakot operation, may be a calculated move by Pakistan’s establishment to rebuild its tarnished image.
Adding to the tension is Pakistan’s discontent over the growing rapport between the Taliban and India. This development has irked Islamabad, which sees it as a strategic loss in its backyard. However, Pakistan’s actions may provoke a fierce retaliation not only from the Afghan Taliban but also from the TTP, further destabilizing the region.
Implications for India: For India, a long-standing victim of terrorism, these developments demand close monitoring. Pakistan’s internal strife and its increasingly strained relations with Afghanistan could have spillover effects, impacting regional security dynamics. Vigilance and preparedness remain crucial as the situation evolves.
Pakistan’s airstrikes in Afghanistan are a stark reminder of the perils of its double-edged policies. As it faces backlash from both domestic and external fronts, Islamabad must tread carefully to avoid plunging the region into further chaos
The Economist’s Recognition of Bangladesh as ‘Country of the Year 2024’: A Dangerous Move
The recent designation of Bangladesh as the ‘Country of the Year 2024’ by The Economist is a highly questionable decision. Given Bangladesh’s crumbling economy, fractured social fabric, and deeply unstable political landscape, this recognition seems less about celebrating genuine progress and more about endorsing a narrative that aligns with Western geopolitical interests.
Misguided Recognition with Hidden Agendas: The UK-based magazine’s accolade, ostensibly meant to highlight development and inspire optimism, instead perpetuates a dangerously misleading narrative. The Economist justified its choice by citing a regime change and the emergence of a “more liberal government.” However, this explanation ignores the troubling realities on the ground. The ousting of Sheikh Hasina’s democratically elected government, replaced by Muhammad Yunus’s leadership, has plunged the nation into chaos. This superficial celebration of change overlooks the risks posed by a flawed and destabilizing political transition.
Economic Turmoil and Social Instability: Far from representing liberal development, Bangladesh’s current state paints a grim picture of economic collapse and social unrest. Forex reserves have dwindled, exports have plummeted, and inflation has surged. Alarmingly, over a quarter of the population now faces extreme hunger. These indicators point to a deteriorating economy that contradicts the rosy narrative promoted by The Economist.
Escalating Violence Against Minorities: One of the most disturbing outcomes of the regime change has been the spike in violence against minorities, particularly Hindus. Temples have been attacked, incidents of forced conversions have increased, and the persecution of minorities has reached alarming levels. Despite international condemnation, including from Western blocs, these atrocities are downplayed in The Economist’s assessment, revealing a troubling double standard in the magazine’s narrative.
A Pattern of Misjudged Recognitions: This is not the first time The Economist has made a controversial selection. In 2015, Myanmar was honored for its transition to democracy, only for the world to later witness the Rohingya genocide. Similarly, Ukraine was awarded in 2022 amid its conflict with Russia, raising questions about the magazine’s selective focus. By naming Bangladesh Country of the Year 2024, The Economist appears to prioritize geopolitical narratives over authentic progress, reinforcing concerns about the magazine’s credibility.
Implications for India: As Bangladesh’s closest neighbor, India bears the brunt of its instability. A vulnerable Bangladesh could become a breeding ground for extremism, cross-border terrorism, and illegal immigration, directly threatening India’s security. Additionally, the rising persecution of Bangladeshi Hindus exacerbates communal tensions within India, challenging its internal harmony.
India’s proactive support during Bangladesh’s crises, such as food security initiatives, underscores the interdependence of the two nations. However, these efforts are often undermined by forces that thrive on destabilization. The Economist’s recognition risks emboldening such elements, jeopardizing regional stability.
Western Media’s Double Standards: The hypocrisy of Western media outlets is evident in their selective outrage. Issues such as sectarian violence, human rights violations, and economic mismanagement in Bangladesh are downplayed, whereas similar occurrences in Western countries would dominate headlines. For instance, the plight of Bangladeshi Hindus is dismissed as an internal matter, while similar issues elsewhere are treated as international crises. This bias devalues the suffering of those affected and exposes ulterior motives behind such narratives.
Lessons for South Asia: The unfolding events in Bangladesh serve as a cautionary tale for the entire South Asian region. The West’s track record in destabilizing nations—from Afghanistan to Iraq to Myanmar—should be a stark warning. For India, the message is clear: a stable neighborhood is essential for its security and development. India must continue supporting Bangladesh’s people, advocating for inclusive development and the protection of minorities.
A Dangerous Precedent: By celebrating a regime change that has led to instability, The Economist’s recognition diverts attention from Bangladesh’s real challenges and legitimizes external interference. This sets a dangerous precedent for other nations in the region, threatening their sovereignty and stability.
Conclusion: Prioritizing Narratives Over Realities: The timing of this recognition is particularly suspect, given Bangladesh’s dire economic, social, and political conditions. Far from celebrating genuine progress, this accolade appears to endorse a West-suited narrative that undermines Bangladesh’s sovereignty and threatens regional stability.
The Economist’s decision to name Bangladesh the ‘Country of the Year’ is not just misguided; it is a reckless move that risks exacerbating tensions in South Asia. The grim lessons from Bangladesh’s current predicament must serve as a stark warning against prioritizing narratives over realities.
Water Security-Interlinking Rivers: A Pragmatic Approach Needed
The Genesis of River-Linking Projects: Mega river-interlinking projects were first envisioned in the 1980s as a solution to growing water stress across India. However, it has taken four decades for the first such initiative — the Ken-Betwa link — to move from concept to execution. This delay underscores the complexities and challenges associated with such ambitious and expensive undertakings. The Prime Minister’s remarks during the foundation stone-laying ceremony emphasized the critical importance of water security in the 21st century, highlighting the government’s determination to pursue river-linking as a strategy.
The intent behind these projects is clear: to transfer water from surplus river basins to deficit ones via reservoirs and canals, transforming water-scarce regions into productive areas. While proponents assert that environmental risks have been adequately assessed, significant concerns persist about the long-term impacts of altering natural water systems on such a massive scale.
Scope and Justification of the Projects: The National Water Development Agency has proposed 30 river-linking projects, spanning both Himalayan and peninsular regions, with an estimated budget of $168 billion. The expected benefits include greater equity in water distribution, enhanced flood control, drought mitigation, and increased hydropower generation capacity. These compelling objectives provide a strong rationale for the projects.
However, caution is warranted. Research suggests that such hydro-engineering projects could disrupt monsoon cycles and destabilize delicate hydro-meteorological systems. Moreover, the ecological destruction associated with these initiatives is a serious concern.
The Need for a Pragmatic Approach: To navigate these challenges, a pragmatic approach is essential. Those involved in executing these projects must remain open to revisiting and refining their plans based on informed feedback. The Ken-Betwa project serves as a test case for leveraging science to balance the benefits and risks, offering solutions to complex environmental patterns while minimizing harm.
Addressing the Missing Link in Water Conservation: A collective effort to conserve water remains an overlooked aspect of public policy. Alongside prioritizing large-scale river-linking projects, the government must invest in research to develop affordable and efficient technologies. These should include advancements in irrigation practices, wastewater recycling, and the sanitation of polluted water sources.
By combining innovative water conservation methods with a cautious, science-driven approach to river interlinking, India can move closer to addressing its water security challenges while safeguarding its ecological balance.
2024: A Year of Diplomatic Triumphs and Challenges for India: In a year marked by global turmoil and uncertainty, India has pursued a confident and assertive foreign policy, reaching out to all corners of the world. While engaging the United States, managing a complex relationship with China, cultivating Europe, and reassuring Russia, India has continued to safeguard and promote its security and economic interests.
Global Context: A Tumultuous Year: The year 2024 was fraught with unexpected developments. Prolonged wars, global elections across 60 nations with surprising outcomes, and heightened anti-incumbency waves underscored the era’s unpredictability. This uncertainty has left the global economic, strategic, and security architecture in flux, making India’s diplomatic achievements even more noteworthy.
Key Milestones in Indian Diplomacy
Continuity in Leadership: The re-election of the NDA government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi provided much-needed continuity. The reappointment of S. Jaishankar as External Affairs Minister reassured global partners of India’s commitment to multi-alignment, “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam,” and “Vishvabandhu” policies.
Strengthening US and Quad Relations: Prime Minister Modi’s bilateral visit to Washington, D.C., in September was a highlight, including the fourth in-person Quad summit in Wilmington, Delaware. While India postponed its turn to host the Quad Summit to 2025 due to President Biden’s election commitments, the flexibility demonstrated the Quad’s enduring commitment to a free and secure Indo-Pacific.
India also welcomed Donald Trump’s decisive re-election as U.S. President. Modi was quick to congratulate Trump, highlighting the strong rapport between the two leaders. This transition signals a positive trajectory for India-US relations, despite potential challenges in trade and tariffs.
Deepening Ties with Russia: Prime Minister Modi’s stand-alone visit to Russia in July and participation in the BRICS Summit in Kazan in October underscored India’s strategic autonomy. India’s significant purchase of discounted Russian oil and its role as a potential messenger in the Russia-Ukraine conflict highlighted its balanced approach. At the BRICS Summit, India reinforced its preference for trading in national currencies over a common BRICS currency.
Engaging China: Progress Amid Distrust: In a notable development, India and China agreed to revert to pre-2020 patrolling arrangements in Depsang and Demchok. Modi and Xi Jinping held a structured meeting at the BRICS Summit, marking a step toward normalizing relations. However, deep mistrust over China’s intentions persists.
Championing the Global South: India’s third Voice of the Global South (VOGS) Summit in August reinforced its leadership role. With participation from over 123 countries, including 21 heads of state, the summit advanced the theme “An Empowered Global South for a Sustainable Future,” emphasizing India’s commitment to inclusivity and shared prosperity.
Regional Diplomacy: Neighbourhood First
Strengthening Ties with Sri Lanka and Bhutan: Sri Lankan President Anura Kumar Dissanayake’s visit in December reaffirmed the island nation’s commitment to India’s security. India also deepened ties with Bhutan through high-level visits.
Recalibrating Relations with the Maldives: Despite initial tensions with Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu, strategic patience and diplomacy restored stability. Muizzu acknowledged India as a valued partner, highlighting India’s crucial role in Maldives’ economic recovery.
Engagement with Distant Shores: Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Guyana, Austria, Poland, and the Caribbean, along with the Republic Day visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, strengthened India’s ties with Europe and beyond. These engagements reflected India’s growing global footprint.
Diplomatic Hiccups
Canada’s Allegations: Relations with Canada hit an all-time low after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unsubstantiated allegations about India’s involvement in the killing of Hardeep Nijjar. India’s strong response underscored its unwillingness to tolerate support for extremism and separatism under the guise of vote-bank politics.
Crisis in Bangladesh: The coup in Bangladesh and subsequent violence against minorities posed a significant challenge. India raised concerns over the safety of Hindus and other minorities while maintaining a calibrated approach to stabilize ties.
India’s Assertive Diplomacy: Despite global uncertainties stemming from conflicts, climate change, and governance failures, India’s foreign policy in 2024 demonstrated resilience and strategic clarity. Through multi-alignment and proactive engagement, India solidified its role as a global leader and a trusted partner to nations across the world.
India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and its role as Vishvabandhu reaffirmed its commitment to building a more inclusive and sustainable global order.
World At War-Guarding Indian Interests In West Asia
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal
Diplomatic Relief and Strategic Opportunities: India welcomes the historic Israel-Hamas ceasefire that offers a chance to move forward with the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). After months of delay ,this development opens doors for enhanced global cooperation.
The Ceasefire Agreement: Key Details: The ceasefire, mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the US, is a six-week process focused on releasing hostages and increasing humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. The truce marks the end of 15 months of catastrophic warfare, which claimed over 50,000 lives and brought Gaza to ruins. Many feared the conflict might escalate into a full-fledged Middle Eastern war, potentially igniting a global crisis.
The agreement, implemented in three phases, began on Sunday following Hamas’ approval on January 15. Although initial resistance emerged from some of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right allies, the deal’s outlook remains promising. Central to the truce was Qatar’s Prime Minister, Mohammad bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani, who mediated between Israel and Hamas.
Terms of the Truce: In the first phase, Hamas agreed to release 33 hostages, including minors, female soldiers, and individuals above 50 years of age. In exchange, Israel committed to releasing 50 Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli female soldier and 30 for other hostages. This exchange underscores the differing value systems between the parties, with Israel’s prioritization of its citizens contrasting with Hamas’ stance.
Challenges to Sustained Peace: Achieving lasting peace in Gaza hinges on the resurgence of a reconstructed Palestinian Authority (PA). However, several obstacles stand in the way, including the PA’s declining domestic popularity, financial crises, and rising authoritarianism. Additionally, Hamas’ cooperation is essential for any governance or security measures in post-conflict Gaza.
Given the mistrust among all parties, international monitoring will be crucial to implementing the truce. Arab states have shown willingness to support the agreement, provided Israel halts its occupation ambitions. Europe’s role is equally vital, necessitating recognition of a sovereign Palestinian state based on 1967 borders and a ban on Israeli settlement trade.
The Role of Saudi Arabia and the Arab Vision: Saudi Arabia’s involvement will be pivotal in fostering peace. Europe must establish a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia to influence American and Israeli policies. The “Arab Vision,” presented to international bodies in early 2024, offers a blueprint for Israel’s regional integration in exchange for a two-state solution and a rebuilt Palestinian Authority in Gaza.
Implications for India: India welcomes the ceasefire with optimism, anticipating a reduction in regional instability and resumption of key projects like the IMEC. Signed by India, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and European nations in September 2023, the IMEC is a landmark initiative aimed at boosting global cooperation. The corridor’s economic and geopolitical advantages position it as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing connectivity through shipping and rail networks.
According to the Hudson Institute, India’s diplomatic role in the Abraham Accords underscores its growing influence in West Asia. With the ceasefire, India looks forward to leveraging its strategic partnerships to promote peace and prosperity in the region.
A Hopeful Conclusion: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire represents a beacon of hope amidst prolonged turmoil. For India, it signifies an opportunity to advance strategic initiatives and contribute to regional stability. As the world watches, the focus remains on reuniting hostages with their families and rebuilding lives in Gaza. This milestone offers a glimmer of optimism for a region long overshadowed by conflict.
Turning Point in the Gaza Conflict: The ceasefire, announced in Doha, Qatar, is seen as a critical juncture in the 15-month war. Beyond hostage releases, it aims to facilitate humanitarian aid for Palestinian civilians in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the agreement’s phased framework, while U.S. President Joe Biden emphasized its potential to reunite families and ease Gaza’s humanitarian crisis.
The Road Ahead: While 33 hostages are set for release in the first phase, over 90 individuals remain captive, with at least 34 confirmed deceased. The agreement spans six weeks, with subsequent phases expected to bring more names to light. Notably, three American-Israeli hostages, including Sagui Dekel-Chen, Keith Siegel, and Edan Alexander, are slated for release across different phases.
This deal offers a glimmer of hope for the families of hostages and signals a step toward easing tensions in a deeply divided region.
Source:
https://www.newsbharati.com/Encyc/2025/1/21/Security-Scan-102.html
