Synopsis : India is one of the fastest growing automobile markets in the world with a total fleet of
around 326 million vehicles in 2019/2020 ( two /three wheelers – 75 % , passenger vehicles – 13 % ,
Goods vehicles/ buses – 5.5 % ) .World Conference of Transport Research (WCTR) projects that India’s
two wheeler fleet is likely to multiply by two between 2020 and 2050 and the passenger car fleet by
four during the same period. The total fleet in 2022 consists predominantly of IC engine vehicles (CV).
Electric vehicles ( EV ) have made an entry into the market recently for two/ three wheelers ,
passenger cars and buses. Heavy duty Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles ( FCEVs) are already in the market
and heavy duty hydrogen operated ICE Vehicles ( H2 ICEVs ) will be entering the market shortly.
India’s future strategy will be greatly influenced by life cycle cost and supply chain management
( specifically constraints ) in all the segments . However , major influencing factors for choice in
different segments will be different : noise pollution and particle pollution for two/three wheelers in
general as well as for passenger cars/ delivery vans in urban areas in particular , autonomy for long
haul trucks, robustness for the requirements in rural agricultural areas .There is an indication of a
shift from the blind focus on reduction of CO 2 emission from human activities to a technology -based
pragmatic approach for managing CO2 -concentration in the atmosphere through recycling of CO 2
into useful products including hydrocarbon. In such a scenario, carbon footprint may not anymore be
a major criterion in a decade. I expect the global debate on energy to be centred around three major
issues : responsible consumption , conservation of resources through optimum designs and processes
and circular economy . It is in this background India has to formulate its strategy for future in the
automobile sector with a value based approach in the overall national interests . EVs ( BEVs and
FCEVs ) and H2 ICEVs are being promoted in the automobile sector with huge subsidies for
manufacture of batteries, electrolysers and hydrogen with the sole objective of reduction of CO 2
emissions . In my view , the automobile market in future will stabilize on the basis of competitive
prices without subsidies in an ambience of fair competition ( life cycle cost ) among CVs, EVs ( BEVs as
well as FCEVs) and H2 ICEVs with due consideration for the relative importance of noise-pollution
particle pollution and surface level ozone in the geographical areas where these vehicles operate . In
my view , Electric vehicles( EVs) and H2 ICE vehicles( H2 ICEVs) and IC engine vehicles ( CVs ) are likely
co-exist in the automobile market in India with different relative importance in the markets in urban
areas , highways and rural areas . EVs ( cars and two/three wheelers ) could have an advantage in
urban areas because of lower noise-pollution and absence of surface level ozone . H2 ICEVs, CVs and
FCEVs are likely to coexist in highways . EVs could be the preferred choice for two/three wheelers in
urban areas as well as rural areas. CVs, EVs and H2ICEVs may co-exist for other vehicles in rural
areas. Life cycle cost is likely to be the dominant factor for the choice .
1.Introduction
Any analysis on the future scenario of automobiles in India will have to take into account the
following important points :
• Context for moving away from IC engines ( CV )
• Evolution of technology with emphasis on life cycle cost : IC engine vehicles , Electric
vehicles ( battery and fuel cell ) , H2 ICE vehicles
• Autonomy in supply chain : Oil , Electricity , Strategic materials, Critical materials ,
Circularity
• Environmental impacts : carbon footprint , particle pollution , noise pollution ,
surface level ozone .
Further, the requirement in urban areas (cities and suburbs) , highways and rural areas will
have to be assessed separately for determining the dominant factors . The overall approach
should be the result of a judicious assessment of the different factors for having a pragmatic
solution
2. Context
The context in which several nations have decided to stop production of CVs is the overemphasis on reduction of GHG emissions in the automobile sector . United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC) had taken a collective decision under
Kyoto protocol and the Paris agreement 2015 to bring down the CO 2 emissions from
human activities to the level in 1990 . The concerted actions during the last three decades
did not result in any positive outcome . On the contrary , the annual CO 2 emissions have
gone up from around 22 billion tonnes in 1990 to 36.6 billion tonnes in 2022 putting in
evidence the ineffectiveness of this approach. The CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere
has gone up from 354 ppm in 1990 to 416 ppm in 2022. High profile COP meetings mostly
ended with unfulfilled commitments and review-meetings were more for shifting goalposts
with unrealistic slogans like “ fossil-fuel-free 2050 “ and “ net zero 2050 “. India is one of the
few countries which made ambitious commitments during 2015 Paris-meet and achieved it
by 2022. India is also on the right track for meeting the objectives set for 2030. While
UNFCCC and its members have been talking about fossil-fuel-free -2050, there has been
substantial increase in the global consumption of both oil and gas between 1990 and 2022
( 44% increase for oil from 36777 TWh in 1990 to 52970 TWh in 2022 and 102 % increase for
natural gas from 19481 TWh in 1990 to 39413 TWh in 2022 ( source: ourworldindata) .
Almost all the serious projections for 2050 show continued use of both oil and gas in 2050.
The writing on the wall is clear that the world will have to move forward with a new
approach for managing CO 2- concentration in the atmosphere through recycling of CO 2
adopting Direct Air Capture ( DAC ) and/or Direct Ocean Capture ( DOC ) and convert CO 2
into valuable products including carbohydrate and hydrocarbon . This , in turn, will change
the status of CO 2 from an undesirable waste to a valuable raw- material. Continued use of
fossil fuel for power generation will make the assumption of “ zero emission” from electric
vehicles unrealistic because of the carbon footprint of the electricity-grid. I would ,
therefore , consider that CVs will continue to be in the fleet for some more time if it can
compete with other technologies in life cycle cost , supply chain advantage and overall
environmental acceptability .
3. Technology
The available technologies are CVs , EVs ( battery operated and fuel cell operated ) .
Hydrogen operated IC engine vehicles ( H2 ICEV ) are under field-trial .
3.1. IC engine vehicles :
During the last several decades ,IC engines have achieved substantial progress in
optimization of design , improvement in efficiency and management of tail-pipe emissions .
The decision taken by several countries to stop production of IC engine vehicles before 2040
has put an end to further research and we have to consider that the technical capabilities of
IC engine vehicles have reached the peak .
3.2 . Electric Vehicles ( EVs) :
UNFCCC and IEA have been promoting adoption of electric vehicles on the assumption that
EVs will help to decarbonize transport sector .
IEA ‘s latest assessment made in 2023 states “ Ramping up electrification and biofuels plays
a major role to decarbonise road transport to 2030. Thereafter, electrification is the
prominent lever, with electricity representing three-quarters of energy consumption in road
transport in 2050 “
The reality could be different for the automobile sector . EU and several nations have
announced decisions for switching over to EVs abandoning IC engine vehicles completely
within a specified period ( EU -2035, Britain -2030, Norway -2025, Canada -2035, China –
2035, India -2040 ) . Several leading automobile manufacturers have also announced their
decision to stop manufacture of IC engine vehicles ( Jaguar- 2025, Volvo-2030, GM-2035,
Volkswagen-2035, Audi-2035, Honda-2040, Toyota-2040, Mitsubishi-2050, Nissan-2050,
Mazda-2050). In my view , most of these countries will be compelled to review their
decisions for stopping production of IC engine vehicles . Irrespective of the over-emphasis on
decarbonization , it is necessary to evaluate the role of EVs in future market of automobiles
through a holistic analysis of several other parameters : life cycle cost , particle pollution ,
noise pollution etc . Research is progressing at a rapid pace for electric vehicles ( battery
operated and fuel cell operated ) and we have to consider that the technology will continue
to make progress.
3.3. H2 ICE vehicles
Although the technology for use of hydrogen in IC engines was known since 1947 , it did not
make much progress till recently . Hydrogen operated IC engine Vehicles ( H2 ICEVs ) are
under trials now and we can expect the entry of H2 ICEVs in the Indian market soon . First
stage could be conversion of diesel truck to H2 ICE trucks . Standard kits for conversion of
diesel trucks are already available in the market . Reliance has already initiated actions for
converting 5000 trucks used in its Jamnagar plant to H2 ICE trucks by July 2024. If conversion
of diesel trucks to H2 ICE trucks can provide a technically acceptable and economically
attractive solution , this could mark the beginning of a new approach for modernizing the
existing fleet of diesel trucks . Reliance is working with Ashok Leyland for producing new
H2 ICE truck model 4125 HN . Same is the case truck model Prima H55S of tata motors . As I
understand, both Ashok Leyland and Tata motors will be using H2 ICE made by Cummins .
Several reputed manufacturers of diesel engines have come out with H2 IC engines for
conducting field-trials.
While EVs and H2 ICEVs are being promoted in the automobile sector with huge subsidies
for manufacture of batteries, electrolysers , hydrogen etc with the sole objective of
reduction of CO 2 emissions , the automobile market in future will stabilize on the basis of
competitive prices without subsidies in an ambience of fair competition ( life cycle cost )
among CVs, EVs ( BEVs as well as FCEVs) and H2 ICEVs with due consideration for the
relative importance of noise-pollution , particle pollution and surface level ozone in the
geographical areas where these vehicles operate .
The available processes for manufacturing hydrogen are through Steam Methane Reforming
( SMR ) and through electrolysis of water . With a clear indication of a probable shift of
strategy from “ reduction of CO 2 emission “ to “ management of CO 2 -concentration in
the atmosphere through recycling of CO 2 “ , life cycle carbon footprint may not be an
important factor for comparison of technologies . On the contrary , optimization of designs
for conservation of resources and adoption of circular economy could be factors of great
importance .
Recent discoveries of huge deposits of natural hydrogen ( mostly regenerative ) have raised
hopes for large- scale mining of hydrogen . Cost of hydrogen could be an important factor in
the adoption of H2 ICE engines in automobiles in a big way . H2ICEVs will have to compete
with hydrogen based FCEVs . Cost-competitive solid oxide fuel cells ( SOFC ) being developed
by several reputed automobile manufacturers may provide a competitive advantage on the
basis of life cycle cost because of its increased efficiency in comparison to H2 ICEs.
In short , I would say that IC engine vehicles , Electric vehicles and H2 ICE vehicles are likely
to co-exist in the automobile market with different relative importance in the markets in
urban areas , highways and rural areas .
4. Autonomy of supply chain
Supply of automobile -components is a highly globalized business -activity dominated by
China followed by South Korea , Germany and Japan . While the last three decades saw the
impact of unbridled globalization in supply chain management , I find clear indications that
nations are likely to move towards a new philosophy for having autonomy in supply chain
with importance to proximity-sourcing . China’s monopoly on supply of several strategic
materials and most of the critical materials is causing concern in the developed world
foreseeing even the possibility of “ weaponization of supply chain “ . Developed nations are
moving forward with a new approach for sourcing of strategic materials / critical materials
locally or from friendly nations. Such actions are likely to have an impact on cost of
products . EU had made an analysis on the matter and has come to the conclusion that 34
strategic materials ( out of which 17 critical materials including nickel , graphite, lithium, rare
earth minerals , microchips ) would need multiple sources reliable suppliers preferably
within Europe to the extent possible ( https://rmis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/analysis-of-supplychain-challenges-49b749 )
Indian automobile industry is also depending on imports of several components. As per
ACME analysis , China accounted for 29 % of total import of automobile components by
India in 2021 followed by South Korea ( 14 % ) , Germany ( 11% ) and Japan ( 9 % ) . India will
have to initiate steps for local production of components of EVs and H2 ICEVs right from the
beginning . India has to be autonomous for the full range of electronic components needed
for automobiles .
5.Environmental impacts
The environmental impacts will have to analysed mainly on four issues : carbon footprint ,
NOx emission , particle pollution , noise pollution
5.1. Carbon footprint
Although carbon footprint itself is likely to lose its relevance in a decade , it will be good to
compare the carbon footprint of CVs and EVs for putting in evidence the error of logic in
promoting electric vehicles purely based on carbon footprint . Life cycle carbon footprint
per km can be considered as the right yardstick for such a comparison . In order to make
this analysis, we have to assume the total distance run during the lifetime of the vehicle .
While it may vary considerably from country to country ( some countries have laws to scrap
a vehicle after a certain number of years irrespective of the distance run ) we can consider
a total distance as 200000 km during the lifetime of a passenger cars and 120000 km for a
two wheeler for the purpose of this analysis .
The carbon footprint of a vehicle covers three stages : production , operation and
management of the end of life. All the available information in public domain shows that the
carbon footprint during production stage is higher for an EV in comparison to a CV . A study
conducted in China (refer ELSEVIER Energy Procedia 105 – 2017 -3584 – 3595), the carbon
footprint during production of an EV is 73 gm/ km against 46 gm/km for a CV . These figures
can be taken for an analysis
5.1.1. Carbon footprint of a CV during operation : Carbon footprint of petrol/diesel at the
pump will vary from the source of crude , total distance of transport , energy used for
processing etc . The CO2 emission from tailpipe of an IC engine passenger car will vary from
design to design and the capacity of the engines .
5.1.2. Carbon footprint of CV ( passenger cars ) : The average figures of CO2 emission
( 2022 ) from the tailpipe claimed by some of the leading manufacturers of IC engine
passenger cars are : BMW – 114. 7 gm/ km , Ford – 118 gm/ km Mercedes – 114.1gm/km ,
Stellantis – 110.74 gm/km . Average figure published by EU for vehicles manufactured in
EU is 122. I will take a figure of 120 gm/ km for the purpose of this analysis .
5.1.3. Carbon footprint of an EV ( passenger cars ) : While it is true that there is no tailpipe
emission for EVs, life cycle carbon footprint of EVs is not negligible and it will depend on the
carbon footprint of the grid from which the electricity is drawn . Contribution of fossil fuel
in power generation in 2022 is over 61 % globally . Even in EU which has made considerable
efforts to move towards renewable energy , fossil fuel represents around 39 % of the power
generation ( nuclear 22 %) .The electricity consumption of an EV per km varies from vehicle
to vehicle ( size and brand ) and I will take an average of 150 Wh/ km for the purpose of this
analysis ( BMWe iX2-170 Wh/km , Renault Megane EV – 158 Wh/km , Peugeot e 308 -169
Wh/km, Tesla 3 – 142 Wh/km, Citroen e C4- 160 Wh/km ) . I will take 150 Wh/km for this
analysis . I give below the carbon footprint of the electricity-grid in selected countries (
figures in CO2 gm / kWh for electricity and gm/km for carbon footprint considering 150
Wh/km).
Country Carbon
footprint 2015
Carbon
footprint 2022
Change in 7
years
2022 carbon
footprint gm/km
EU 321 261 ( 60) 40
Germany 448 364 (84) 55
France 64 67 3 10
Sweden 45 46 1 7
Norway 35 28 ( 7 ) 4
USA 448 371 ( 77 ) 56
Canada 149 126 ( 23) 19
China 597 545 ( 52 ) 82
India 662 633 ( 29 ) 95
Source https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/carbon-intensity-electricity?tab=chart&country=AUT~FRA~EU27~SWE~POL~NLD~OWID_WRL~CHN~ZAF~CAN~OWID_EU27~DEU~USA~NOR~IND~JPN
Based on the assumptions made for this analysis, the carbon footprint of a CV will be 166
gm/ km ( 46+120 ) and an EV will be equal to that of a CV when the carbon footprint of the
grid is 622 gm/ kWh . With Indian grid’s carbon footprint at 633 gm/kWh in 2022 one can
say that carbon footprint of an EV and CV is almost the same now . With India’s ambitious
programme for having an installed capacity of 500000 MW in 2030 from renewable sources ,
the carbon footprint of Indian grid could be around 525 gm/kWh and the carbon footprint of
an EV could be around 90 % of that of a CV . This is certainly not a reason for adopting EV.
There could be other reasons in favour of an EV .
5.1.4. Two wheelers ( CVs and EVs ) : An analysis by International Council for Clean
Transportation ( ICCT ) on the carbon footprint of two wheelers in India gives the following
figures ( CO 2 gm/ km ) :
Motor cycles Scooters
CV 97.2cc EV 3.5 kWh CV 109.5cc EV 2.9 kWh
Well to tank 11 28.7 12.8 31.7
Tank to wheel 38.3 0 43.4 0
Vehicle production 4.9 5 4.7 4.2
Battery 0 2 0 1.7
Total 54.2 35.7 60.9 37.5
Source : https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/fuel-consumption-2w-india-aug2021.pdf
Basic assumptions :
Life of the vehicle : 120000 km . Fuel consumption for CV Litre/100 km : 1.86 for motor cycle , 2.2 L for scooter. Electricity
consumption for EV kWh / 100 / km : 4.1 for motor cycle and 3.7 for scooter . carbon footprint of grid : 767 gm CO2 /kWh.
The carbon footprint of grid has been coming down year after year due to increased penetration of renewable energy and it
was 633 gmCO2 / kWh in 2022. It is likely to come down to 525 gmCO2/kWh by 2030. It is obvious from this analysis that
the carbon footprint of a CV is higher than that of an EV .
5.2.NOx emission
Both CVs and H2 ICEVs produce NOx emission and this will have to be managed with the
incorporation of suitable catalytic convertors . While the reaction of NOx with volatile
compounds present in the tailpipe emission of CVs produce surface level ozone , this is not
the case with H2ICEVs because of the absence of volatile compounds . Catalytic convertors
used in H2 ICEVs split NOx into harmless nitrogen and oxygen.
5.3. Particle- pollution
Particle- pollution from an automobile consists of :
• exhaust emission from the tailpipe
• non-exhaust emissions from brake-wear, tyre-wear and road wear
• non-exhaust emission of resuspended particles of road dust caused by the
movement of the vehicle .
The exhaust emission of particles from an IC engine vehicle depends on the design and
engine-capacity of the vehicle as well as the incorporation of particle-filters . EVs do not have
any emission from the tailpipe . However , the electricity used for charging battery of EVs
does have a footprint of emission of particulate matter . H2ICEVs do not cause particle
pollution from tail pipe .
While CVs and H2 ICEVs use friction-braking , EVs use a combination of regenerative braking
and friction braking and consequently the brake wear emissions will be lower for EVs. So also
the emission of metallic particles from brake-dust . Tyre wear will be more for EVs in
comparison to CVs / H2ICEVs because EVs are heavier than CVs of comparable performance .
Tyre wear dust may contain microplastic particles and metallic particles . Quantity of
resuspended particles vary considerably from country to country , season to season and
between urban and rural areas. In short , it will be correct to say that adoption of EVs do not
reduce the non-exhaust particle emissions in a significant manner . Several studies have
been conducted for ascertaining the relative importance of non-exhaust emissions in the
total particle emissions and it is found that 70 to 90 % of the total particle emissions could
be contributed by the non-exhaust emissions . A study conducted in India , China and Japan
on non-exhaust particle emissions showed that 45 % was contributed by resuspended
particles, 37 % by brake-wear and 18 % by tyre-wear and road-wear .
5.4 Noise pollution
The sources of noise-pollution from a vehicle are power train , aerodynamic influence and
tyre-road contact . The noise levels are greatly influenced by the speed at which the vehicle
runs . EVs , CVs and H2 ICEVs are likely to have comparable noise -levels on account of tyre
contact and aerodynamics while running at higher speeds . The noise-level from power train
of a CV will be higher than that of an EV at lower speeds. A study conducted by Lykke M.
Iversen of Danish Road Directorate gives the following conclusions
• At constant speed EVs are 4-5 dB less noisy than similar CVs at low speed.
• At about 30 km/h or more the difference in noise is not significant because the tireroad contact noise and aerodynamic-noise could be the same for CVs and EVs
• During deceleration by engine braking EVs are 2-4 dB less noisy than CVs at low
speed.
• Overall conclusion is that EVs will have lower noise -levels on streets where vehicles
travel with speeds under 30 km/h
6.Conclusion
India will have to develop its own strategy for the automobile sector based on its
evaluation of the market requirement in urban area, highways and rural area and a
judicious assessment of competitiveness ( life cycle cost ) , carbon footprint , particle
pollution , noise pollution and surface level ozone. While Govt intervention may be
needed for promoting new technologies , it should be mostly in the form of Production
Linked Incentives ( PLI ) during a predetermined period and the products should be able
to compete in the open market with comparable products using other technologies.
While the rules for environmental protections should be fully complied with , life cycle
cost could be a dominant factor for the choice by the customers .
6.1 Carbon footprint :
Based on the positions taken by UNFCCC and IEA and some of the developed nations ,
India has been trying to promote EVs with the objective of replacing CVs on the
assumption that such a step will bring down the total CO 2 emissions from the
automobile sector considerably . This may not be true because EVs do have a carbon
footprint during production , operation depending on the carbon footprint of the grid
and the management of the end of life .
6.2.Passenger cars :
India’s electricity-grid had a carbon footprint of 633 gmCO2/ kWh in 2022 and at this
level the carbon footprint of an EV passenger car could be the same as that of a CV
passenger car. Even with a massive addition of installed capacity from renewable
sources for reaching 500000 MW in 2030, the carbon footprint of the electricity -grid
could be around 525 gm CO 2/ kWh. At this level , the carbon footprint of an electric car
could be around 90 % of that of a CV. In essence , carbon footprint can not be a major
reason for adopting Electric cars in India if electricity from the grid is used for charging
the battery . On the contrary , if the owners of the vehicles use electricity generated
form rooftop solar power plants for charging batteries , the carbon footprint for
electricity will be very low . Carbon footprint of a H2 ICE car will depend on the carbon
footprint of the hydrogen ( Steam Methane Reforming or electrolysis )
6.2.1 Particle emission
Tailpipe emission of particles contribute only around 20 % of the total particle pollution
in urban areas in India . While there is no tailpipe emission for EVs, there is a particle
pollution during the production of electricity with fossil fuel and hence this will have to
be accounted for EVs. On the whole , particle pollution from EVs could be slightly lower
than that of a CV . This can not be a reason for replacing CVs with EVs in urban areas. H2
ICE cars have an NOx emission and this has to be managed through the incorporation of
catalytic convertors.
6.2.2. Noise-level
EVs have substantially lower noise level at speeds less than 30 km . EVs do not produce
surface level ozone . Both these points give a compelling reason for adopting EVs in
urban areas. Although there is no surface level ozone for H2 ICE vehicles , noise pollution
gives a clear advantage for EVs.
6.3. Two wheelers/ Three wheelers .
The noise pollution and surface level ozone are important points which give an EV a
clear advantage over CV .
6.4. Long haul trucks:
The main criterion will be autonomy for covering long distances and life cycle cost . A
comparative analysis among CV, FCEV and H2ICEV will have to be worked out . In my
view CVs , FCEVs and H2 ICEVs are likely to co-exist. Development of competitive Solid
oxide Fuel cells ( SOFCs) could make FCEVs acceptable from cost point of view.
6.5. Vehicles in rural areas :
EVs have a clear advantage for two/three wheelers over CVs. Comparative analysis
among EV, CV and H2 ICEV for cars, trucks and farm-equipment will have to be worked
out . In my view , CVs and H2 ICEVs are likely to co-exist .
In conclusion , I would say that CVs , EVs and H2 ICEVs are likely co-exist in the
automobile market in India with different relative importance in the markets in urban
areas , highways and rural areas and the major criteria for choice could be the life cycle
cost , noise pollution and particle pollution . EVs could be the preferred choice for
two/three wheelers in urban areas as well as in rural areas. EVs could have an advantage
in urban areas for passengers cars because of lower noise-pollution and absence of
surface level ozone . H2 ICEVs, CVs and FCEVs are likely to coexist in highways .. CVs, EVs
and H2ICEVs may co-exist in rural areas.
