“Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment” is a comprehensive and thought-provoking report authored by P. Charon and J.-B. Jeangène Vilmer, published by the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM) under the Ministry for the Armed Forces in France.
This report delves into the intricate realm of Chinese influence operations, drawing parallels to Machiavellian tactics, and provides a meticulous analysis of China’s strategic efforts to wield influence on the global stage.
Brief History Evolution of Chinese Influence Operations
Historically, China sought to be admired and respected rather than feared. Unlike Russia, which has often used coercive methods, China initially focused on projecting a positive global image and promoting its cultural and political attractiveness. Beijing’s approach emphasized seduction, aiming to shape international norms while preserving its reputation. For the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), maintaining “face” and national prestige was of utmost importance.
However, in recent years, China’s influence operations have undergone a significant shift. While Beijing continues to promote itself on the global stage, it has increasingly adopted methods of infiltration and coercion, moving away from purely soft-power tactics. This transformation is reflected in a more assertive and sometimes aggressive approach to foreign influence, drawing comparisons to Russian strategies. The CCP’s stance now seems to align more closely with Machiavelli’s principle from The Prince: “It is much safer to be feared than loved.”
Tougher Influence Methods
This shift represents a clear departure from China’s earlier tactics. The CCP’s influence operations now range from benign public diplomacy to clandestine and more malign interference activities. The increasing use of coercion and infiltration by China marks a “Machiavellian turn” in its foreign policy, indicating a willingness to exert control through fear when necessary.
Key Areas of Chinese Influence Operations
This report examines the full spectrum of China’s influence operations. It begins by outlining key concepts and the actors involved, such as Base 311 of the People’s Liberation Army, which plays a central role in propaganda and psychological warfare. It then explores China’s influence across various sectors, including its actions toward:
• Diasporas: Efforts to control and influence overseas Chinese communities.
• Media and Diplomacy: Manipulation of narratives and leveraging diplomatic ties.
• Economy and Politics: Use of economic leverage to gain political influence.
• Education and Think Tanks: Infiltration of educational institutions and intellectual circles.
• Information Manipulation: Disinformation campaigns, particularly on social media.
The report also delves into specific cases such as Taiwan, Singapore, Sweden, Canada, and the operations targeting Hong Kong protesters in 2019. One notable example was the CCP’s attempt to label COVID-19 as an American creation in 2020.
The Authors
Dr. Paul CHARON is Director for “Intelligence, Strategic Foresight, and Hybrid Threats” at the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM). He holds a PhD in Political Studies and Chinese Studies from the School of Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS, Centre d’études sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine) and an MBA (HEC).
Dr. Jean-Baptiste JEANGÈNE VILMER is the Director of the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM). Trained in three disciplines – Philosophy (Bachelor, Master, Ph.D.), Law (Bachelor, LL.M., postdoctorate) and Political Science (Ph.D.) – in France and abroad, he was previously a policy officer on Security and Global Affairs at the Policy Planning Staff of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Understanding Influence Operations
The book offers a comprehensive exploration of influence operations, particularly focusing on China’s strategies. It differentiates between traditional forms of power and the more subtle tactics employed by China. The “Machiavellian Moment” is introduced as a conceptual framework to understand these operations.
Historical Roots of Influence Operations
The report traces the historical evolution of Chinese influence operations, from the Mao era to the present. It highlights the ideological and tactical shifts that have shaped China’s approach. Additionally, it draws parallels between historical Machiavellian tactics and contemporary Chinese strategies.
Understanding Influence Operations
The authors provide a clear definition of influence operations and their significance in the modern geopolitical landscape. They differentiate between “sharp power” and traditional forms of power, laying the foundation for understanding China’s unique approach.
China’s Influence Operations on the Global Stage
The report delves into the intricate landscape of Chinese influence operations worldwide. It aims to decipher the motivations, strategies, and implications of these operations. The analysis offers insights into the evolving dynamics of China’s diplomatic and strategic efforts.
China’s Strategic Objectives:
In this section, the report delves into the motives driving China’s influence operations. The authors dissect China’s ambition to reshape global narratives, project soft power, and secure favorable geopolitical outcomes. They show how China’s influence efforts extend beyond traditional diplomacy, encompassing a wide array of tools such as economic investments, cultural initiatives, and digital propaganda.
China’s Strategic Influence Campaigns
This segment forms the crux of the report, exploring China’s multifaceted influence campaigns across diplomatic, economic, information, and military domains. The authors scrutinize China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), technological expansion, Confucius Institutes, and cyber activities, providing analyses of their implications for global power dynamics.
Tactics and Techniques:
Part III is the heart of the report, where the authors delve into the tactical intricacies of Chinese influence operations. They examine the techniques employed in shaping public opinion, infiltrating media landscapes, and steering international discourse. The analysis of China’s utilization of technology, social media platforms, and information warfare provides readers with a detailed understanding of the methods used to advance the country’s interests.
Unveiling the Machiavellian Elements
Building on the Machiavellian analogy, Part II dissects the historical context and core components of Machiavellian tactics and how they intersect with China’s influence operations. The authors draw parallels between China’s statecraft and Machiavellian principles, highlighting the pragmatism, manipulation, and realpolitik that underpin both approaches.
The ethical implications of employing Machiavellian tactics in contemporary diplomacy are examined in this section. The authors bring out the moral dilemmas surrounding influence operations, questioning the boundaries between legitimate statecraft and subversive manipulation.
Tools and Techniques
One of the highlights of the report, this section delves deep into the array of tools and techniques China employs for influence operations. From state-controlled media to the Belt and Road Initiative, the authors analyse each mechanism, outlining their mechanisms, objectives, and real-world impact.
Motivations and Goals
Here, the authors explore the underlying motivations driving China’s influence operations. Beyond the conventional realm of geopolitical power, the report reveals the intricate interplay between China’s domestic interests and its global ambitions. Economic growth, regime stability, and the quest for global leadership converge in a complex web of motivations that shape China’s actions.
Case Studies and Impacts
The report backs its analysis with case studies, demonstrating China’s influence operations in action. The South China Sea dispute, the United Nations engagement, and economic coercion tactics are examined in detail. The authors assess the successes and failures of these campaigns, shedding light on their broader impact on international relations.
The section brings out a series of case studies. The authors dissect China’s influence operations in various countries, highlighting both successes and failures. These case studies serve as concrete examples of the strategies discussed earlier, offering readers a practical view of how these operations unfold in real-world scenarios.
China has effectively utilized its strategies to sway public perception, policy decisions, and international relations. These case studies range from economic partnerships and investment projects to media manipulation and cultural diplomacy, offering readers a clear picture of the breadth and depth of China’s influence.
Chinese Influence Operations-Some Tactical Successes but a Strategic Failure
Machiavelli’s Influence on China’s Tactics
Machiavelli once stated, “It is much safer to be feared than loved.” He also added, after studying Cicero, that “a prince must make himself feared in such a way that he avoids hatred, even if he does not acquire love.” This subtle balance between fear and respect is what Beijing has failed to achieve in its influence operations. While China has experienced some tactical successes, it has not managed to avoid generating widespread resentment.
Tactical Successes: Coercion of Corporations
China has demonstrated its ability to exert pressure on private companies, compelling them to comply with its demands. For instance, international airlines and hotel chains have been forced to label destinations like “Taipei, China” rather than acknowledging Taiwan’s sovereignty. Even major corporations like the NBA have issued public apologies after officials criticized China. In 2012, when The New York Times published an article disfavored by the Chinese government, China responded by blocking the newspaper’s website, causing the company’s stock market value to drop by 20% in just 24 hours. Additionally, many businesses avoid placing ads in media outlets critical of China, fearing economic retribution, further weakening the independence of the press.
Strategic Failures: Global Backlash
Despite these tactical wins, China’s broader influence strategy has been a strategic failure. Its aggressive posture has triggered widespread and growing resistance. This backlash is not new—China has long been its own worst enemy when it comes to building influence. In Africa, for instance, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has faced numerous setbacks in recent years. Complaints have surfaced about China’s exploitative behavior, with local businesses and workers feeling neglected, as if they were treated like colonial subjects.
Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and the Erosion of China’s Image
Beijing’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy—a more combative and assertive foreign policy—has further damaged its international standing. Its use of disinformation, coercion, and brute force has tarnished its once positive image. Xi Jinping himself acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to the strongest wave of anti-China sentiment since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. He also warned that this growing resentment could undermine BRI projects and prompt the United States to increase military and financial support for its Asian allies, raising the risk of confrontation.
High-Profile Scandals and Reputational Damage
Several high-profile incidents have further harmed China’s global reputation since Xi came to power. The espionage case involving the African Union headquarters, China’s “hostage diplomacy” tactics used to pressure Canada and other countries, revelations about Uyghur concentration camps (such as the “China Cables”), and the heavy-handed response to protests in Hong Kong have all contributed to the deterioration of Beijing’s image, particularly in the West.
Polarized Perceptions: West vs. Developing Nations
However, China’s reputation has not suffered uniformly across the globe. Its image has deteriorated significantly in developed countries, particularly in Europe, North America, Japan, and South Korea. In contrast, China’s standing in developing countries remains relatively positive and, in some cases, has even improved. This reflects Beijing’s dual approach: confrontation with the West and seduction of the Global South.
Implications and Responses
The report doesn’t merely analyze the mechanics of Chinese influence; it also delves into the broader implications and responses from the international community. From concerns over information warfare to diplomatic countermeasures, the authors provide a balanced examination of how other nations are grappling with China’s Machiavellian approach.
The authors explore the responses and countermeasures that nations can employ to mitigate the impact of Chinese influence operations. They highlight the importance of bolstering media literacy, enhancing transparency, and fostering international cooperation to safeguard democratic values and national sovereignty.
The focus js to the responses of Western democracies to China’s influence operations. The report evaluates the efficacy of different countermeasures, ranging from increased transparency to targeted policy adjustments. By highlighting both the strengths and weaknesses of these responses, the authors provide valuable insights for policymakers and strategists.
Analysis and Critique:
“Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment” is an exceptional piece of scholarship that combines historical analysis, meticulous research, and strategic insight. The authors’ comprehensive approach, from tracing the historical trajectory to dissecting contemporary case studies, offers readers a holistic understanding of China’s influence operations. The report’s rigorous research and well-structured presentation make it an indispensable resource for policymakers, scholars, and anyone interested in understanding the intricacies of modern geopolitics.
Concluding Comments
China’s Influence Strategy: A Mixed Outcome
While China has achieved some tactical successes through coercion, its overall influence strategy has failed to gain lasting international support. Instead, its aggressive methods have triggered a growing backlash, especially in developed nations. The future of China’s global influence will likely depend on whether it can strike a more balanced approach between fear and respect, as Machiavelli advised centuries ago.
Analyzing Chinese Influence Through a Machiavellian Lens
“Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment” is a meticulously researched and well-structured report that provides an in-depth analysis of China’s influence operations in the modern world. By examining these strategies through the lens of Machiavellian principles, the report offers a unique and thought-provoking perspective that enriches the reader’s understanding. Case studies and assessments of countermeasures further enhance the report’s practical relevance, making it a vital resource for policymakers, researchers, and anyone interested in the shifting dynamics of global politics.
A Comprehensive Contribution to Global Political Discourse
The authors maintain a balanced approach, offering critical analysis alongside comprehensive coverage of the subject. Their expertise in international relations and security studies is evident throughout the report, ensuring its value as a significant contribution to the understanding of China’s global influence strategies. The report’s meticulous structure and detailed content provide policymakers with practical tools, while offering a clear and insightful perspective for researchers and analysts.
The “Machiavellian Moment” and Strategic Implications
The report concludes by reiterating the significance of the “Machiavellian Moment” and emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to counter Chinese influence operations. The authors acknowledge the complexity and persistence of this challenge, offering practical solutions that are both strategic and forward-looking.
A Seminal Work on China’s Influence Strategy
“Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment” stands as a seminal contribution to the understanding of China’s influence tactics on the global stage. The report deftly combines historical context, strategic analysis, and real-world examples, painting a holistic picture of China’s multifaceted efforts. It is a must-read for anyone seeking to grasp the evolving landscape of global influence.
Essential Reading for Policymakers and Analysts
The report’s thorough analysis, supported by historical context and insightful conclusions, makes it an invaluable resource for policymakers, researchers, and analysts alike. Its exploration of tactics, motives, and potential countermeasures equips readers with the knowledge necessary to navigate the complex realm of international relations in the face of China’s growing influence. Given the importance of these insights, the report is essential reading for all Indians looking to understand and respond to China’s strategic ambitions.
A Definitive Resource on Contemporary Influence Operations
In a world where influence operations play a critical role in global affairs, “Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment” provides an authoritative exploration of China’s strategies, motivations, and global implications. P. Charon and J.-B. Jeangène Vilmer have crafted a report that not only clarifies China’s methods but also equips readers with the knowledge to better understand and respond to the evolving dynamics of international influence operations. This report is a definitive resource for those interested in the strategic landscape of modern geopolitics.
