Abstract : “Outbreak of rapidly transmittable disease among the wider population of a nation or state causing mass illness or death is called epidemic provided it is confined within the national boundaries or specific regions. However, the same epidemic is termed pandemic when it is found to be potent enough to spill and spread beyond national boundaries to other parts of the world with the same ferocity with which it had started in the country of its origin.”
Phenomena of epidemic and pandemics are no novelty for humanity. Our relation with them are as old as the civilization itself. World history is replete with stories of epidemics and pandemics destroying generations, empires and even civilizations. They have often been the cause of big changes in the course of human history. They are known to act as catalysts and triggers ushering world into new eras of socio-economic and political revolutions and even technological developments.
in the north western China dating back to 3000 BC. The archaeological and anthropological studies indicated mass deaths having taken place in this region too quickly to afford proper burials. Discovery of no habitation thereafter in this region was also confirmed. Subsequent analysis of the facts thus collected suggested that an epidemic might have ravaged the entire region.
From here after, sporadic episodes of emergence of epidemics have been recorded with regularity in history in many parts of the world with an interval of less than 200 to 500 years .
Outbreak of rapidly transmittable disease among the wider population of a nation or state causing mass illness or death is called epidemic provided it is confined within the national boundaries or specific regions. However, the same epidemic is termed pandemic when it is found to be potent enough to spill and spread beyond national boundaries to other parts of the world with the same ferocity with which it had started in the country of its origin.
In the current case of Covid-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) had changed its status from epidemic to pandemic on 11 March,2010 after cases of afflicted persons world wide crossed over 118,000 in over 110 countries around the world and the sustained risk of further global spread was confirmed.
Despite constraints of mobility and limited means of communication, epidemics like the Athens Plague, Rome’s Antonine Plague, Cyprian Plague, Justinian plague etc spread to vast regions of Europe causing extensive deaths and destruction to human activities during 430 BC, 65 to180 AD,250 to 271 AD and 541 to 542 AD respectively.
Subsequent accounts of devastations caused by the Black Death of (1346-1353 AD) in Europe, Cocoliztli epidemic (1545-1548 AD) in South America, American Plaguein 16th century, Plagues of London, Marseille, Russia of 1665,1720, 1770 respectively, have all been depicted vividly in history books.
In recent times fear, anxiety and harm caused by Philadelphia yellow fever epidemic of 1793, Flu pandemic of 1889-90, American polio of 1916, Spanish Flu of 1918-20, Asian Flu of 1957 and H1N1 Swine Flu of 2009 are still fresh in our living memories. Not to forget about the AIDS, Ebola & Zika epidemics of our own centuries.
Even though each one of the above epidemic caused large scale destructions and disruptions to human life in their own time, two cases stand out for their uniqueness and wider influence on the course of human history.
One is the Cocoliztli epidemic of 1545. Spanish explorers had un-intentionally carried with them from Europe to south America the common cold and few other virus on their expedition to South America and introduced them inadvertently among the native Aztec and Incas population with whom their armies were engaged in an armed struggle to overpower them for their wealth and gold and to enslave and colonize them for the imperial cause.
For Spanish soldiers, these viruses were like variants of common cold with which they had lived for centuries and developed full immunity in their bodies. But for the Aztec and Incas, it was an absolutely alien disease for which their bodies had no immunity at all . For them, it was a highly contagious transmittable disease that was fatal for them.
As per estimates made by historians, theviral haemorrhagic fever (calledCocoliztli meaning pest in Mexican language) killed 15 million inhabitants of Mexico and Central America that wiped out their entire civilisation to be taken over by the Spanish army with ease and without much resistance due to the sudden breakdown of their entire administrative, economic and social infrastructure affected by the pandemic. This is perhaps one historical event when the destruction of not just one generation but the entire civilisationofthousandof years of antiquity, can be directly linked and attributed to one miserly virus and a deadly pandemic.
Story of the second case of “Black Death of Europe” (1346-1353 AD) is even more intriguing as it is credited to have influenced the course of not only the European history in all its economic and political dimensions but influenced the course of human history itself of which we are also a product.
The Black Death also known as plague, continued to cause havoc in the European continent between 1347 to 1352 CE.
It killed an estimated 25-30 million people in those days when birth rate was low, child mortality high and average life span short.
Black Death disease was caused by a bacillus bacteria that was carried by fleas living on the skin of the rodents. It is an interesting fact that this disease, is believed to had its origin around the same regions of china from where our current Covid 19 has originated. Black Death bacteria travelled on the silk road from china to Europe and went up to the black sea area of Crimea along with Mongol warriors and traders. The plague had entered Europe via Italy.
Records of history suggest that this disease was carried by rats on Genoese trading ships sailing from the Black Sea. Plague was christened in Europe as the “Black Death” because it turned the skin and sores to black colour while other symptoms included fever and joint pains.
The mortality rate of this diseases was very high. Up to two-thirds of afflictedused to die from this disease. It is estimated that between 30% and 50% of the population of places affected by it, died from the Black Death. The death toll was so high that it broke down the entire medieval society of Europe as a whole. It caused severe shortage of farmers and labour force in Europe. The suffering experienced by peasants led them to demand end of serfdom. This Pandemic had turned the docile and passive countryside peasantry into an aggressive population asking questions, challenging authorities and ready to rebel.
Manytowns and villages lost their entire population. Administrative hierarchies abandoned their posts.There were no organised production of any kind of consumables and no collections of taxes during the five long years when this pandemic tormentedthe European populace with death and destruction. By one estimate it took nearly 200 years for the population of Europe to get back to the economic levels they used to be prior to the Black Death. Acute shortage of labour helped development of new technologies, mechanisation, automation and ultimately to the industrial revolutionthat transformed the modern world.
Many historians and social scientists find the seeds of renaissance inherent in this period. The spirit of questioning authority, established norms and beliefs, unjust social and political systems and the courage to resist them seems to have had its origins here. It was the same spirit that found its manifestation in the French and Russian revolutions at a later date. It seems that the human spirit was kindled through this extraordinary event.
It is also speculated that this Black Death had significantly contributed to the sudden withdrawal of Mongols from Central Asia roughly the same time. This also had a tremendous impact on the political history of this region giving rise to the Turkish movement who ultimately defeated the Byzantines of Constantinople and established the Ottoman empire in Istanbul i.e. modern day Turkey.
Covid -19 is still with us and likely to remain with us for some more time to come. Our much advanced scientific knowledge, technological sophistication, robust administrative infrastructures and control over social behavior is helping the humanity to tide over this crisis not just in a shorter period of time but also may minimize its damage to the extent possible. But prolonged global lockdown will have its own effect on economy, society, political fortunes and technology as happened in the past narrated above.
Domestic political fortunes of powerful leaders will be directly linked to how they conducted themselves and managed this crisis in their own countries. Quality of leadership will be put to close scrutiny and test. Existing geopolitical trends of big power rivalry, re-alignment of international forces on ideological lines will get sharpened and accentuated. Charm of mindless globalization is likely to suffer as world will try to turn inwards and avoid global supply chains that are vulnerable, fragile and un-naturally created solely for commercial consideration . Economies will seek stability over growth, work towards domestic employment over profit and self sufficiency over global dependencies.
Cyber technology, e-commerce and contactless interaction will get a boost during this crisis and prove their utility, value and dependence beyond what we had known till date. The rate of digitization of world will now be accelerated to a different level. Redundancy of the classical concepts of privacy in the new digitized world will become more acceptable and electronic surveillance will get further legitimacy in all the societies. They will now be aggressively promoted by strong governments. Better performance of authoritarian governments over their liberal counterparts will create many ideological dilemma in the minds of people and many voting patterns will change to bring forward strong leader-ships with less democratic credentials and regards.
We can expect to see great changes in social behaviour and social norms as well. People all over the world will now understand the importance of physical distancing and personal hygiene at all levels. We can see changes in the office working norms as well. Common man will intuitively start distancing itself from crowded places affecting the popular mall culture. People shopping habits and shopping patterns will be greatly affected by this crisis.
Overall , the future societies coming out of this experience will be more sophisticated, digital, individualistic, less socially saavy, isolationist and gravitate towards more authoritative leadership than soft democracies.
