“With an impending larger Chinese presence in the Maldives after the Muizzu era defence agreement with China, a counter-strategy needs to be put in place rather soon.”
The commissioning of the Indian Naval Ship/Establishment Jatayu by the Chief of Naval Staff on March 6, 2024, will go down in the maritime history of India as a landmark event. It has taken more than 75 years for independent India to accept the strategic importance of Minicoy Island, around which one of the most important sea lanes, the nine-degree channel, is located.
Nine degrees is the latitude that passes between Minicoy and Kalpeni/Suheli Par islands. The channel is approximately 200 km wide with an approximate depth of 2600 metres. This witnesses nearly all merchant shipping between Europe, West Asia, and East Asia with South East Asia and the Far East. This is not the singular significance at this vantage location but the unfolding dynamics of the geopolitical canvas, which is bound to upset the power equilibrium.
The Maldives and China have entered into a defence agreement wherein China will provide defence at no cost. This is significant since PRC does not do this kind of charity unless it has a larger self-interest, which adds to its own reach. Nothing could be more important than its naval presence in the Maldives, in close proximity to India.
With an impending larger Chinese presence in the Maldives after the Muizzu era defence agreement with China, it is near certain that the PLA Navy will soon begin patrolling between Minicoy and Haa Dhalu Atoll, which is located on Hanimadhoo Island.
This is one of the larger islands in the northernmost group of the Maldives and is only 169 km from Minicoy. It has an airport and is a tourist destination. There has been a flurry of Chinese tourists here.
As far as Exclusive Economic Zone demarcation is concerned, the equidistance EEZ principle applies, i.e., both India and the Maldives have EEZ rights up to halfway, approx. 85 kilometers. So far, under a joint patrol agreement, Indian Dornier with observers from both countries’ onboard patrols this zone. It has kept piracy at bay over the years. In all probability, it will stop, and Chinese aircraft could soon be patrolling up to the halfway mark. This could give them access to monitor Indian territory and airspace as well. These aspects are necessary to understand the strategic relevance of Minicoy.
Our epic Ramayan has it that Jatayu, a demigod bird in the huge form of an eagle or vulture, despite having been severely injured and lying on a hilltop, gave very important information to Lord Ram regarding the movement of Ravan, who was escaping to Lanka with Janki Devi Seeta, Lord Ram’s wife. This information ultimately led to a battle between the armies of Lord Ram and Ravan, the King of Lanka. Ultimately, Ravan was killed, and victorious Lord Ram returned to Ayodhya with his wife, Janki Seeta.
The name of the newly commissioned Naval establishment, “Jatayu” carries with it that symbolic relevance as an important information provider to the Navy. The strategic location of Minicoy Island has been well perceived by the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
PM Modi’s overall attention to improving India’s maritime security is evident in the capacity building of the Navy, which is underway. An airfield on the island is also on the cards.
Facilities to logistically support ships operating in the area, a jetty for berthing ships, and storage facilities are in the making. The monitoring of vessels through a nine-degree channel and uploading into the Maritime Domain Awareness network will add to the surveillance information in the larger Indo-Pacific by the QUAD.
The Maldivian President’s latest defence agreement with China is a matter of serious concern. The PLA would capitalise on this agreement and could soon have long-range surveillance radars positioned on these islands (possibly on Hanimaadhoo, which already has an airfield). The ranges of these radars will possibly be long enough to monitor all aerial activities on India’s southern peninsula. This could have strategic implications for India.
A counter-strategy needs to be put in place rather soon. Also, given the close relationship between China and Pakistan, this quiet area could become their new playground, rather close to comfort.
INS Jatayu, therefore, is of great strategic significance as the first maritime surveillance outpost at the gateway of the Arabian Sea. Lakshadweep Island has a naval station on Agatti Island as well.
The recent developments have deeper ramifications for the power balance, especially for the Quad, not only in the Arabian Sea but in the larger Indo-Pacific as well. India must be well prepared for the same.
The author is Member, Trustee Board, India Foundation, Former Chief of Integrated Defence Staff &Commander in Chief, Western Naval Command. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect IIRF views. Article was first published in Firstpost. This is a reprint.
