- Introduction The fall of USSR has resulted in a unipolar world with USA as the only superpower . While Russia continues to remain a major military power challenging USA , its economic clout came down drastically . In a span of three decades , China became a formidable economic power with huge trade surplus . While it is true that foreign investment with “state of the art” technology mostly from USA , EU and Japan helped China make a quantum jump in industrial production , it is equally true that China assimilated the foreign -technology and developed its own “ state of the art “ technology in several fields challenging USA , EU and Japan . While India made significant improvement in economic development with its mixed-economy system , it remains a small player in the global economy .
- Future balance of power Will the present unipolar world move towards to a multipolar world ? . In every likelihood YES. However much will depend on the evolution of balance of power in the changing world . The simplest definition of “power” in political science is the ability of a nation to exercise influence over other nations within the international system. This influence can be through cooperation , competition , coercion or confrontation . Statecraft is about managing relations with other nations to protect national interests with application of economic power , military power and diplomatic power . US which helped China to achieve phenomenal economic success is now concerned about China’s attempt to become a superpower challenging it . While President Obama tried to accommodate China in its rise as a super power , President Trump opted the path of confrontation and President Biden is following it . India will also have to pass through a similar path in its ambition to become a superpower and the best strategy for India will be to get accommodated by USA.
2.1. Economic Power
2.1.1. In 2021 , US represented around 24 % of the world GDP followed by China at around 19 % , EU at around 15 % . India represented only around 3.3 % and Russia around 2 % . It is true that most of the well known Management Consultants have made projections of real GDP in 2050 based on certain assumptions on base year , exchange rate , growth and global trade and have concluded that China , US and India could be the biggest economies in 2050 in that order . I give below the forecast of real GDP ( constant 2021 US$) by Goldman Sachs in 2030/2050/2050 ( figures in Trillion US$ .)
| Country | 2030 | 2050 | 2075 | Ratio GDP/ World GDP in 2030/ 2050 / 2075 | GDP increase in 20 years /45 years |
| World | 121.4 | 227.9 | 402.5 | 88 % / 323 % | |
| USA | 27 | 37.2 | 51.5 | 22.2% / 16.3 % / 12.7 % | 38 % / 91 % |
| EU | 15.8 | 22.9 | 30.3 | 10.5% /10 % / 7.5% | 45 % / 92 % |
| China | 24.5 | 41.9 | 57 | 20.1%/18.4 %/14.2 % | 171 % / 233 % |
| India | 6.6 | 22.2 | 52.5 | 5.4%/9.7 % / 13 % | 336 % / 795 % |
| Rest of world | 26.1 | 103.7 | 211.2 | 21.5%/45.5%/ 52.4% | 397% / 808% |
Source : https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/the-path-to-2075-slower-global-growth-but-convergence-remains-intact/report.pdf Notes : a)The figures for 2030/2050/2075 are real GDP with 2021 as base year and does not include inflation . The nominal GDP including inflation will be quite different and will depend on the inflation in each country . Comparison of GDP of different nations is always done on the basis of nominal GDP b)World GDP ( nominal ) was 86.6 Trillion $ in 2020 . The real GDP is estimated to grow to 121.4 Trillion $ in 2030, ie , a growth of 40.1 % in 10 years c)The volatile situation in Europe consequent to Russian attack on Ukraine and new geopolitical uncertainties in the far -east including a probable flare-up could have negative impacts on this projection particularly for USA, China and EU
2.1.2. It is extremely difficult to project the geopolitical and economic evolution of the world in 2050 and new developments will have direct consequence on the projected GDP . Several probable uncertainties can be identified :
- There is already the signs of deglobalization . Increased protectionist policies adopted by USA and EU could put the last nails on the coffin of unfettered globalization giving way to bilateral trade agreements between nations and group of nations . Direct consequence in USA will be an increase in inflation . EU’s attempts to bring manufacturing to EU will be mostly centred around low cost EU countries and hence EU may be able to manage the situation reasonably well . However , very high cost for energy-transition could increase inflation in EU . I will not be surprised if EU takes a new pragmatic approach on energy -transition centred around recycling of CO 2 . Economic integration of some of the countries which joined EU recently is appearing difficult and the defiant attitudes of a few EU members on many issues may result in change in the perimeter of EU without much impact on the overall dominance of EU in the world . Russia may also enter EU economic zone
- The push for local production by EU and USA is bound to have its impacts in China . Closure of factories with massive retrenchment of employees is already taking place in China and the situation is bound to deteriorate . Serious socio-economic issues and mounting bad debts of Chinese banks could lead to an economic downturn and consequent lower growth . A probable flareup in South China Sea / East China Sea could make the situation worse for China . An unfavourable demographic change with an ageing population could also have a negative impact on the economy .
- The transition from the Fourth Industrial revolution to the Fifth Industrial Revolution will bring in substantial transformation in economic development, particularly in the use of materials and manpower . European Union defines the Fifth Industrial Revolution as “a vision of industry that aims beyond efficiency and productivity as the sole goals, and reinforces the role and the contribution of industry to society” . Modern technology will drive cooperative working between men and machines . AI, IoT, big data etc will enable robots to change the workplace- processes to deliver a more human-centric, resilient , environment-friendly and sustainable future anchored in the principles of circular economy . The notion of balance between work and leisure will change with less number of working hours , part-time working and flexible working-time with considerable reduction in physical displacement . The impact of this change on GDP could be phenomenal which may not be visible in the projections of Goldman Sachs .
- Expected increase in world population in 2050 mostly centred around the developing world and substantial increase in per capita consumption in the developing world will put considerable constraints on the availability of natural resources . At present , the developed world and the top two quintile of the population in several developing nations are over-consuming natural resources and they will be compelled to reduce their consumption . With an increasing population with a favourable median age and with an increased pace of development , the overall consumption in Africa , India and Indonesia is bound to go up substantially resulting in a global shortage of materials . The world will be obliged to move fast towards a circular economy through recycling and re-use . This change in economic pattern could have a negative impact on the overall growth of GDP in USA and EU .
Based on these observations , I would say that real GDP of USA and EU could be lower than the projections and the real GDP of India could be higher . No doubt , the nominal GDP in 2050 will depend on the cumulative inflation in each country . I expect the nominal GDP in 2050 to be the highest in India followed by USA and China .
2.2. Military Power US is the only hegemonic power with enormous economic and military clout . Russia which inherited the nuclear arsenal of the former USSR is an effective competitor to USA. China has built enormous military capabilities in the last two decades and is challenging both US and Russia as a military power .
The table below gives a comparison ( 2021/2022)
| USA | Russia | China | |
| Active Military Personnel | 1395350 | 900000 | 2035000 |
| Active Navy Personnel | 349600 | 150000 | 260000 |
| Active Airforce personnel | 329400 | 165000 | 395000 |
| ICBM | 400 | 339 | 116 |
| Aircraft carriers | 11 | 1 | 2 |
| Combat Aircrafts | 1574 | 2475 | 1172 |
Source : Page 42 of link https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220427_Ranking_Major_Powers.pdf?FVCpij.NHeBefpwCDCt9WDdzWNGlV19E
While USA , Russia and China hold the top three positions in Global Fire Power Index ( GFP ) , India is a distant fourth and will have to bridge the gap for becoming a super power . It is equally important to examine the nature of a future war which could be quite different from the conventional war. Use of Artificial Intelligence will transform warfare in several core activities : strategic decision making , combat simulation , target recognition , threat monitoring , drone swarms , cyber security , casualty care and evacuation etc . India will have to examine whether India will be able to become a top player in future warfare without bridging fully the Fire Power in the traditional sense.
2.3. Medium term objectives
Let me try to make an analysis on the medium term objectives ( two decades ) of USA, China ,Russia , India and EU and the expected moves of each one to achieve these objectives and an analyst’s projection of a probable scenario in two decades .
USA : It is obvious to me that US will make every move to continue to be the undisputed leader in a unipolar world . In a situation where the US economy is under the burden of mounting debt with the possibility of US dollar losing its unique status as a reserve currency , some economists project that US is on a downward trend and may lose its influence in the global economic order . However , the reality could be different . With its immense capacity for innovation and capability to convert innovation to market potential in a quick manner during the transition from the Fourth industrial revolution to the Fifth Industrial revolution , I feel that US will maintain its dominant position in the global economic order . Its capacity to adopt AI in a big way in military preparedness could give it a substantial lead in future However , the geopolitical influence of US is bound to come down . US will also do everything possible to prevent others challenging the supremacy of US.
China : As a rising global super power challenging US hegemony , China would like to create a bipolar world dominated by China and USA for paving the way for an eventual unipolar world dominated by it . China became an industrial powerhouse with the active support and massive investment of the developed world particularly USA and EU . While it is true that USA and EU succeeded to control inflation through cheap imports from China , they suffered considerable social deficit ( perhaps even technical deficit and economic deficit) on account of indiscriminate globalization through transfer of manufacturing activities to China . US has already started reversing this policy and China is already facing socio-economic difficulties on account of massive closure of factories . Chinese banks are facing serious liquidity- issues because of large amounts of bad debts . In my view , China is likely to face difficulties in maintaining its economic momentum . China is held together by the iron grip of the communist party and if and when it gets loosened due to politico-socio-economic reasons , I do not exclude the possibility of 10 or 12 prosperous eastern provinces seeking autonomy for creating a new confederation causing an implosion of China . This new confederation may play a much bigger role in the global economic order than the role played by China today.
Russia : Russia recognizes that it can not any more be a superpower . With its enormous natural resources , Russia’s objectives could be to become a major player in the supply chain of metals /minerals ( particularly rare earth minerals ) and hydrocarbons for influencing global economy with preferred relations with EU, China and India . Russia’s geopolitical influence is bound to decrease . However , it will leverage its dominant position for supply of natural resources including rare earth minerals as well as export of food grains. I expect Russia to strike a deal with EU for mutual benefit .
EU : Resource-poor EU will continue to maintain its technology-leadership with a deft balancing act with competing global powers . EU’s interest will be to play a dominant role by keeping good relations with all the major suppliers of natural resources as well as with the super powers . Relations with Russia will be crucial .
India : India ‘s objective could be to become a superpower in a multipolar world along with USA and China . India missed the bus for the third industrial revolution and entered the fourth industrial revolution rather late . India’s chances for becoming a global super power will depend largely on its capacity to drive the fifth industrial revolution right from the beginning in an effective manner using its enormous intellectual capabilities for a human-centric approach for creation and distribution of wealth with priority for rural India.
3. India’s strategic relations with other major powers
3.1. USA and Russia will continue to be two hostile nuclear powers and India will have to navigate through a delicate terrain with cordial relations with both for protecting its national interests : technology for fifth industrial revolution from USA and natural resources from Russia . While US interests could be to balance or contain or even destroy China, Russian interests could be to be a major supplier of oil and gas and rare earth minerals to India . I do not find any major contradiction in the matter for India to manage its relations with both USA and Russia without getting into the direct hostility between them . History shows without any ambiguity that Russia has no permanent love for China . I do not expect China to be a factor for India for maintaining its relations with both USA and Russia so as to protect its national interests
3.2 .It is well known theory in “ power transition “ that a dominant hegemonic power will have only two options for dealing with an aspiring global power : accommodation or confrontation . President Obama tried to accommodate China in its rise to become a global power and could not succeed . President Trump reversed the policy and decided to take an approach for confrontation . President Biden is continuing the same policy . In my view, the volatile situation in the South China sea / East China sea between China and its neighbours ( US partners/allies ) , a worsening China-Taiwan relation and an economic warfare between USA and China could result in a limited confrontation in the region between China and its neighbours with indirect or direct participation of USA. India will have no role in the matter and hence should keep away . USA which is notorious for destabilizing other countries may have already started actions to destabilize China and it may accelerate the implosion of China . An implosion of China may result in the liberation of Tibet and India may solve once and for all the border issue with China
3.4. India – EU relations
EU being a technology -leader in several areas , India has to maintain cordial trade-relations with EU irrespective of EU’s relations with USA, Russia and China . In my view , Russia’s attack on Ukraine was a strategic failure of EU’s foreign policy precipitated by US giving undue support to Ukraine . I consider it as a deliberate act by US for destabilizing both Russia and EU . In my view , EU and Russia will have to reconcile to the reality that they have no choice but to have a good working relation for mutual benefit . This is bound to happen .
3.5. India-Russia relations
India-Russia relations will have to have a new direction centred around supply of oil and gas as well as rare earth minerals . Contrary to the positions taken by UNFCCC on climate change for eliminating use of fossil fuel , I am of the view that fossil fuel will continue to be used for several decades to come ( perhaps even beyond 2100) and Russia , Iran and Azerbaijan could be major suppliers to India . The multimode International North-South Transport corridor ( INSTC ) under execution could facilitate the transport of goods among these countries .
3.6. India -US relations
President Biden gave a red carpet welcome to Prime Minister Modi during his State Visit to US in June 2023 and concluded several agreements for close cooperation between the countries for mutual benefit . Person to person discussion between the two leaders has certainly created an ambience of trust between the two countries for achieving their medium term and long term objectives where each nation has a strategy to position for promoting its interests in a changing world . While it is true that both India and USA are two of the greatest democracies , their approach for economic prosperity is not the same . While US believes in unbridled free market economy , India believes in mixed economy with social justice . In such a situation , success of business to business relations will depend very much on the capacity of both sides to understand each other for making the right compromises for furthering common interests and consequent economic prosperity . This will be one of the biggest challenges for creating a win-win situation both for the businesses and for the nations . The different agreements signed during PM Modi’s visit will have to be put in operation with speed and transparency . While Indian diaspora can play an important role , India has to recognize the fact that most of the successful Indian American businessmen and technology -leaders in US are basically American in their approach and India has to be agile to navigate through the system for getting quick results beneficial to both . There is already good “people to people relations , business to business relations and military to military relations “ between India and USA. Prime Minister Modi’s discussions with President Biden will accelerate the pace of such relations on condition that India adopts a transparent mode of operation . Bureaucratic delays and tax disputes are two key issues to be sorted out for building mutually beneficial business relations . US will also have to realize that its unbridled free-market approach will have to be moderated to comply with India’s social obligations . India’s priority to develop rural India as centres of economic activities will have to go hand in hand with US interests for maximizing profitability . While IoT and AI could help businesses to connect the rural India to the market-centres in India and even abroad , India will need considerable efforts to persuade US businesses to exploit fully the market-potentials with the participation of rural India . One of the major issues will be the manner in which India and US will come to an agreement on intellectual property rights . Corruption in India could be another issue.
While US would like to treat India as a natural ally for reinforcing its influence in the Asia-pacific , India has to take a calibrated approach without getting involved in any military conflicts . US military always had a soft-corner for Pakistan because of the strategic importance of Gilgit for containing USSR. US may now have an interest to use Gilgit for containing China and the best strategy for India will be to get US support for taking possession of Gilgit-Baltistan in line with the unanimous Parliament resolution passed on 22/2/1994. India will have a tough task in handling two difficult issues related to the tendency of US Govt officials and law makers to interfere in India’s internal matters with their perception which may not in line with the realities in India : freedom of speech and minority rights.
4. Freedom of Speech
4.1. While “Freedom of speech” is inbuilt into the constitution of all the democracies , the scope , applicable restrictions and interpretations by the respective Supreme Courts are not necessarily the same . While US Constitution specifically mentions about freedom of press, it does not mention about any restrictions . The US has a complex “First Amendment jurisprudence” which has been interpreted by the US Supreme Court on several occasions.
In the Indian Constitution , the right for freedom of speech and expression is mentioned in Article 19(1) (a) which falls in the category of fundamental right and it is subject to eight restrictions permissible under Article 19(2). These restrictions pertain to “ the sovereignty of the state , friendly relations with foreign States , public order , decency and morality , contempt of court , defamation , incitement to offence and sovereignty and integrity of India . India’s Supreme Court has given several interpretations on the matter while dealing with petitions submitted in the court .
It is also interesting to note that Article 19 in the ICCPR ( International Convention on Civil and political Rights ) specifically mentions about the special duties and responsibilities and consequent restrictions for freedom of speech relating to “ respect of the rights or reputation of others , protection of national security , public order , idea of the offense principle” .
4.2. One debatable point in India is whether successive Govts have used the provisions under 19 ( 2 ) for suppressing dissent . Pandit Nehru who had a very high sense of democratic values was extremely careful to avoid the use of restriction clauses under 19( 2) . As Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi did set a questionable practice of suppressing dissent using article 19 ( 2 ) . Successive Govts have used this provision for supressing dissent in one form or other within the provisions of laws or otherwise . Any application of these restrictions should be strictly within article 19 ( 2 ) and the citizens have the right to take up the matter with the Supreme Court . In several cases , the Supreme Court has upheld the right of citizens for freedom of speech and expression . The Govts in power should be conscious about the need to be in conformity with the provisions of the laws in line with the interpretations already given by the Supreme Court . However , it is certainly not for a US Govt official , law maker , journalist or an NGO to give lessons to India based on their understanding and interpretation of the US Constitution
4.3. Minority rights
Article 29 of the Indian Constitution defines the protection of interests of minorities as defined in Article 19 . This definition is religion-neutral .
Article 29 : Protection of interests of minorities
- Any section of the citizens residing in the territory of India or any part thereof having a distinct language, script or culture of its own shall have the right to conserve the same
- No citizen shall be denied admission into any educational institution maintained by the State or receiving aid out of State funds on grounds only of religion, race, caste, language or any of them
Para 1 defines the right of the minority . Religion is not mentioned in this para . In fact , the Indian Constitution has no explicit definition of ‘religion’ or ‘matters of religion’. Under the directive of article 32 of the Constitution which provides the right to constitutional remedies, it is left to the Supreme Court to decide on the judicial meaning of such terms. . Para 2 defines the rights of all the citizens making it clear that the minorities should have the same right as every citizen irrespective of religion, caste, language or any of them . As far as I understood , Indian Constitution does not give a clear definition of the word “ minority “ . Even the Supreme Court has not tried to give an interpretation . I feel that the Parliament should enact a law defining “ minority “ or the Supreme Court should give a definition interpreting the existing laws which could be uniformly applied in the context of Indian Constitution . The Constitution defines the protection of rights of minorities and the Govt is obliged to follow it under the watchful eyes of the Supreme Court if necessary .
5. India a secular democracy
5.1. With the 42nd Amendment of the Constitution of India (1976), the Preamble to the Constitution asserted that India is a “secular” nation. The meaning of a secular state is that it does not prioritize any one religion for the country and its people. This should automatically mean that the entire electoral process should be secular where religion and caste should not be used for winning votes . The Supreme Court of India gave a split- verdict ( 4-3 ) in January 2017 prohibiting use of religion or caste for winning votes and ordered that an election should be made void if a politician makes an appeal for votes on the basis of religion/caste . Majority verdict said that:
“Mixing religion with State power is not permissible while freedom to practice profess and propagate religion of one’s choice is guaranteed. The State being secular in character will not identify itself with any one of the religions or religious denominations.”
In spite of this verdict , religion /caste is being used by political parties for winning votes and the electoral process should undergo substantial changes so that such misuse will not be possible . It will be good to establish a new electoral system which will ensure the following :
- Eliminate vote bank politics based on religion/caste
- Eliminate the influence of money power and muscle power of the candidate
- Ensure an absolute majority for the winning party during the entire term
- Eliminate defection and switchover
- Ensure that vacancies of seats can be filled without bye election
One way will be to have a two round proportional system for election where citizens vote for a list of candidates both in the first round and in the second round . Lists which get a cutoff percentage ( say 5 % ) in the State should be eligible for contesting in the second round . The list which gets the highest number of votes in the state should be given 25 % of the total seats and the remaining seats should be allotted to all the lists including the winning list . This will ensure majority for the winning list . Switching parties by the elected member should be prohibited . Any vacancy caused by death / resignation should be filled from the contesting list without re-election . It will also be possible to have gender-parity if alternate names are of female- candidates . Evidently , the system should respect the importance of the States during parliament election for electing the allotted number of members form the States . This reform is fundamental for going forward with reforms in all other areas .
5.2.Govt records should not contain any reference to religion/caste . This has to start from the schools and should be implemented in the entire administrative system .However , the Govt has no powers to stop individuals who add caste in their names . Over a period of time , this is bound to disappear
5.3.Reservation system based on caste and religion should be abolished in educational institutions and Govt offices . Dr Ambedkar had highlighted the possibility of misuse of the reservation-system and had cautioned that it should be available only for a short duration of 10 years . Successive Govts have extended the period as part of the “ vote bank politics”. Socially backward classes should be given special financial aid as well as special coaching to improve skills so that they can compete with others on merit . The present system of reservation has created a mediocre society and it should be abandoned for creating a merit-based society where everyone will have equal opportunity based on merit and performance . This will also help to put in place fully the notion of “ equal rights for all “
5.4 . Civil rights vs religious practices
An egalitarian and modern society should function on the basic principle that everyone has equal rights under civil laws irrespective of his/her religion / caste . Indian Constitution provides the right to freedom of religion to all the citizens under articles 25, 26,27 and 28. This is uniformly applicable to all the citizens and it is not a minority-right . The problem starts when one attempts to mix civil laws with religious practices and brings in the definition of minority -right based on religion . The fact remains that articles 19, 25,26 27 and 28 are applicable to all religions .
5.5. Uniform Civil code : Article 44 of Indian constitution says, “The State shall endeavor to secure for the citizens a uniform civil code throughout the territory of India.”. It is for the Indian parliament to debate this subject and adopt laws for ensuring uniform civil rights in certain areas : civil marriage , inheritance of properties etc . Making a legally binding civil marriage obligatory under a uniform civil code does not deprive anyone to have a religious marriage respecting tradition . This is what is happening in several European countries . As a nation what is our objective ? . Is it not for giving every citizen the right to choose his/her partner regardless of the religion or caste they belong to guaranteeing him/her all the civil rights as per our Constitution ? . The answer should be YES.
6. Conclusion
a) India has the potential to become the biggest economy in the world by 2050 if it follows the right policies for creation and distribution of wealth with the participation of the entire cross section of active population either as an entrepreneur or as an employee so as to give everyone the possibility to have a decent life-style . This is the only way to bridge the widening disparity of income between the top and bottom quintile of the population . India’s position as the most populous country in the world with a very favourable age-pyramid should be transformed into a positive factor for economic success. .
b) India’s strategy to become a military power should be centred around its capacity to build AI assisted/controlled weaponry .
c) India’s ambition to become a superpower should be centred around a strategy for getting accommodated by US . A suitable strategy should be developed for dealing with China depending on the outcome of China’s challenge to US for becoming a superpower . It could be through competition or even confrontation.
