Two of the topmost countries in the chart of the world’s best Chess playing nations have today locked horns with battle lines drawn in Ukraine. The US which ranks 65th in the world ranking is still planning its moves from across the Atlantic. I am not sure if there is a correlation between playing Chess and practicing state craft. But going by the rankings it does seem so. No 3 on the list is China followed by Israel and US , with India close on the heels. That Pakistan does not figure in the first twenty may be a coincidence but going by its track record in wars it is not surprising. The game of Chess does however provide a template for war gaming which is a prelude to any strategic moves.
All battles on land, sea and in air are primarily fought in the minds before they get executed on the ground. This presupposes razor sharp mind which can predict the enemy’s moves in advance. I will leave the Chess theory for another day. Let us talk about Ukraine and Putin.
Putin is the new poster boy of modern geo politics. Or so it appears. He has pulled off a spectacular move changing the broad Neo-Europe narrative which is a fast emerging political equation and shape of things to come. How much of it he can convert into reality is difficult to predict but his first move seems strong and solid. He has put the best foot forward. Though most observers are cautiously watching and are not ready to jump to conclusion I am prepared to hazard a guess.
The contours of a new axis appears to be on the anvil and are emerging on the horizon. These may be early days but it is a well thought and carefully orchestrated plan to change the geo politics of Eurasia which may have far reaching implications. The rug has been pulled under US feet by some very clever moves that Putin must have planned for a long time.
His understanding of the geo politics of Europe is becoming clear.
Let us analyze how Putin went about his game plan. Cut back to 2014 – Putin first smelt the simmering discontent when there was mass protests by pro-Russian and antigovernmental factions in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts where there were strong under current of an insurgency movement. The parties involved in the civil war were the Ukrainian Government and two districts of Crimea. It was a referendum on status of Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Putin lost no time and was quick to capitalize by fueling the unrest. Soon it turned into an armed insurgency supported by the Russian federation. It was a shrewd political move backed by Russian military. It was called the ‘Russian Spring’. Ukranian territory of Crimea was quietly annexed following a Crimean Referendum with covert support from Russian military. There was some noise in the UN with many voices of dissent but the dust settled down soon. Putin had got his foot in the door. At the White House the Obama administration was too involved in the the middle east and planning escape route out of Kabul.
The swift operations culminated into annexation of Crimea by Russia. Government forces which tried to crush the insurgency killed 48 armed insurgents that escalated into a limited war. Today although Crimea is de facto under Russia, a civil war like situation exists there with nearly 15000 killed and solution no where in sight. Matters if any has got worse with a fresh round of shelling to contain the situation by the Government forces. The evacuation of rebels into Russian neighborhood is on at a frenetic pace.
Before I go further just a flashback that Crimea had been annexed by Russia in 1783 during the Russian-Turkish war but became an autonomous region in 1917 but within Russian Federation. It remained so till 1991. Today Russia controls Crimean Donbas though not recognized by the UN. A truce was signed between Ukraine Russia and EU under the aegis of Germany and France called the Minsk Agreement. This forms the basis for all future negotiations for a peaceful resolution. It may give Russia the necessary legitimacy in the international community. Donetsk and Luhansk became signatories giving Putin even more legitimacy The Minsk agreement gave Putin the veil of respectability and political clout and further added to his stature.
There are over 1,50,000 Russian troops today marshaled on the Ukrainian border and rearing to go. Russia has successfully created a disinformation campaign painting Ukrainian Government as the potential aggressor. The underlying aim of Putin was to convince NATO and West into believing that Ukraine’s belligerence could lead to a possible war. This could ignite the Russian pride and spark a war to punish Ukraine. Putin has managed this with dexterity.
His first phase has gone as per plan. This was only the precursor to a larger scheme of things, yet to come. What is so special about Ukraine that has the whole world watching with trepidation. Ever since the break up of the Soviet Union, Russia has suspected the motives of the US. Taking advantage of Anti Russian sentiments US and the NATO alliance has tried to change the strategy from one of containing communism in Western Europe to that of taking the NATO into the break away States where Russia still enjoys considerable influence. A resurgent Russia under Putin is unlikely to take that lightly, if recent developments are anything to go by. Putin has demonstrated that by getting a foot hold in Ukraine. Future of Europe will now revolve around the outcome of what happens to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s strategic location has always been subject of envy for the rest of Europe. It has the largest geographical area after Russia and serves as a buffer between Russia and rest of Europe. It enjoys a temperate climate and its proximity to the Mediterranean Sea provides it with abundance of maritime opportunities. It has over 18 developed ports that has helped build its sea trade. It is one of the largest grain exporting countries and has highest steel production.
Its proximity to Russia and past political affiliation makes it very vulnerable to easy annexation. Culturally it has more commonality with Russia. It has one of the powerful military in the region acting as a frontline state for the NATO against Russia.
It has massive reserves of precious ores like Uranium , Titanium , Manganese alongside energy ores like coal, gas reserves. Ukraine has the largest technically qualified human resource. It is a developing country with advanced industrial infrastructure and has manufacturing capabilities of high-tech machinery , nuclear plants, Defence equipment manufacturing and variety of industrial goods and machinery.
Putin’s next move was to sideline US in the NATO club by maneuvering Germany and France.
French President Emmanuel Macron, had warned European countries that they can no longer rely on America to defend NATO allies. “What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO,” Mr Macron declared in a no holds barred interview with ‘The Economist’ way back in November 2019.. Europe stands on “the edge of a precipice, and needs to start thinking of itself strategically as a geopolitical power; otherwise we will “no longer be in control of our destiny.”
These words must have been music to Putin’s ears. France had always followed an independent line when taking a position. It maintained a fierce cultural and political identity even during its worst period in history. It’s exclusion from the newly formed AUKUS has left it fuming adding to fuel of Anti-US sentiments.
Germany after second world war became dependent on the US for its reconstruction. Europe had been devastated after the great war and Germany under combined attack from the Allied Forces had taken the brunt. It was bifurcated into East and West Germanies. In a matter of three decades it emerged as foremost industrially advanced nations. Berlin Wall collapsed unifying both Germanies. In all its history Germany has fallen too often only to rise again , stronger than before. Germany needed US assistance and protection from possible Russian invasion soon after the great war. At that time NATO countries accepted US leadership unilaterally.
They needed a sense of security and a long period of political stability. But now Germany is emerging as the undisputed leader in Europe. With collapse of USSR the cold war bogey no longer exists. Euro Union must have its own leader. Europe has never been United in the true sense. Even EU is just a confederation or a coalition with few things in common. Desire for a truly federal Europe has always been a distant dream and an unlikely possibility. Germany has always nursed great ambitions while France has always preserved its originality even during its worst time. Yet when it comes to the US it would prefer loyalty to one their own and not to the US who is an outsider -across the Atlantic . Days of US hegemony will end soon if the Triangle forge a new alliance.
Geo Politics is dynamic and ever evolving. Fortunes change with time. US has never been a reliable ally. What ever US did for Europe under Marshal Plan was purely for its own interest and not out of any altruism. Germany is now ready to don the mantle of regional leader in Europe. Together with Russia and China a new axis could be in the offing. US is totally out of sync and finds itself irrelevant. Its political clout in the world has been on the wane. A series of military setbacks in West Asia after Vietnam rout and recent Afghanistan fiasco has exposed US’s capability to provide global leadership. With China emerging economically stronger, EU is looking for indigenous leadership. Like the French President said NATO is ‘ Brain dead’. There appears little chance of revival of NATO. At best it will fade away. Europe may witness a political Renaissance . The days of military alliances may be over. There is a growing realization today that militarization of nations is no solution to ideological conflicts. The focus is on development and improving quality of life. With China following a capitalist approach and Russia emulating the Chinese economic model, Europe may see an economic resurgence.
With reluctance of Germany and France, the two major European powers, chances of Ukraine’s admission into NATO looks slim. None of the other countries are in a mood for high pitched jingoism . Putin’s plan to drive a wedge and exploit the fault lines in the NATO alliance seems to have paid off. Buoyed up by lukewarm response for Ukraine’s admission into NATO, Putin is trying to arm twist the Ukrainian President. Putin seems to have done his homework well. It has not been an overnight effort but culmination of a long time dream now come to fruition . He does not appear to be rattled by the White House threats. Putin has never threatened to invade and annex Ukraine. But he is clear that Ukraine will not be brought into NATO fold. US wants to use NATO as a spring board to take the battle into the Russian area of influence. Beyond political motives US has other concerns too.
During ‘Gold War’ US made hay earning trillions of dollars creating a scare among the West European countries that the communist invasion was coming. The US Arms industry went into an overdrive. US economy has thrived on creating bogey of the spread communism. The strategy was to create flash points and keep arms industry going. We saw that in Vietnam , by citing Domino theory . Then in the garb of providing security to Saudi Arabia it signed security deal and invaded Kuwait. The world saw creation of Taliban and arming Pakistan to fight the Soviet Union and later got caught up in a two-decade long struggle to contain Taliban. The US Arms lobby is too powerful and most underrated. They can manufacture trouble and manufacture arms to solve the problem.
But after its fiasco in Afghanistan US seems to be losing its grip. Cold war has gone cold and dead. This is economically hurting the US. Europe is now looking for an economic revival. China is today an economic giant. It has kept its dictatorial governance free from economic development. The proposed BRI initiative is going to be a game changer and something the Neo Europe and Russia be will looking forward to. US land mass across Atlantic Ocean is physically separated by a huge water body isolates it emotionally. White House has no issue that can forge emotional bonds with Europe. Days of fears of Russian invasion are passé.
What happened after the Great war was a period of reconstruction and containment of communism. All these are old geo political dynamics. Things have drastically changed after the cold war and US appears to have lost its influence and hold. Russia because of its locational advantage will have an edge and will not like to fritter away that advantage. Russia has ensured that its old constituents despite enjoying their sovereignty continue to stay with it emotionally. It is not easy for former USSR nations to switch loyalties over night to NATO. Many old USSR Breakaway States( East Block ) are wary and highly vulnerable to NATO influence. So Putin’s aggressive moves against Ukraine may just be a muscle flexing and an attempt at brinkmanship. China will back Russia in case of US intervention. Without that understanding Russia would not have taken this bold step. This is an opportunity China will never let go to settle scores with US.
Putin’s strategy to annex Ukraine may have been well thought out plan with back door diplomacy and tacit support of friendly nations. All this may be achieved without pulling the trigger. All those massing of troops and deadly weapons and missiles may be part of the muscle flexing exercise. This may yet be an excellent exhibition of elements of Grey Zone Warfare , so feverishly discussed by the US Think Tanks but practiced by Russia and China. Most US Think Tanks are dominated by Left intellectuals who migrated to US before the collapse of the USSR. Today the US political mind space is a shadow of the old communist thoughts.
Putin may well have borrowed a page from Chanakya’s military strategy. There is a famous quote of Chanakya. ‘ Regardless of whether a snake is noxious, it should claim to be venomous.’
Every move of Putin appears a Sutra ( formula) by Chanakya. At the time of writing this things are still unclear. Having achieved his aim of creating cracks in the NATO alliance, Putin claims to have pulled back some of his troops. Although US denies this, Putin seems to have convinced the world partly that the US is sensationalizing the claims. Putin is using elements of Grey Zone Warfare to pressurize Ukraine and isolate it so that it is open to rapprochement.
So where does that leave the US ? On the high seas of Atlantic, perhaps. US appears to have been out smarted having lost credibility among countries like Germany and France.
Are we going to see a neo power center developing. May not be in the immediate future but it appears inevitable.
All eyes are on Putin’s next move . He has kept everyone on tenterhooks. Full scale invasion of Ukraine is unlikely . Putin knows how much to stretch and when to pull back. Putin wants legal guarantees that NATO will not invade Russia. Assurance from West that Ukraine will not be admitted into the NATO fold may be way out to diffuse the situation for the present. But Russia’s defence lies in the annexation of Ukraine. This, Putin will try to achieve by Kama, Bheda, Sama, Danda. A leaf taken out of Chankaya’s Arthashastra.
US is right now suffering from a leadership vacuum. Biden is remote controlled by some vested lobbies who want to strengthen the NATO and keep it as a conflict zone. A military alliance like the NATO means huge money spinner. I think US should encourage people to play Chess and also implore their Think Tanks should ‘Think’ more.
Author is the founder President of IIRF . Views expressed above are personal views of author . They do not represent the views of IIRF.
