Rise of China and its Trouble with Taiwan and South China Sea (SCS)

History and Background

China is among the oldest civilisations of the world. It was contemporary to Egypt, Sumer, and Indus valley civilisations in ancient days. China occupies the fourth largest land mass of the world after Russia, America and Brazil and has the second largest population of 1.4 billion only next to India.  However, unlike India and USA, Chinese population is culturally, ethnically, and linguistically very homogeneous. Ethnic Han comprises 92 % of Chinese population. It is also the dominant cultural group of China. Baring a brief Mongol occupation lasting less than a century in the 13^th century, China had never seen a complete foreign rule on its land. It always had an uninterrupted dynastic rule of multiple ethnic Chinese rulers till the modern ages.

Hundred years of Humiliation

Notwithstanding what is mentioned in the above para, China in the 18^th century during its last dynastic ruler of the Quing dynasty, faced a huge humiliation after his medieval army was defeated repeatedly by the superior British forces in various opium wars between 1839-1860. Having defeated the imperial armies, Britain had forced a humiliating Nanjing treaty on Quing rulers of China in 1842 that opened the gates for variety of unjust economic exploitation of China by foreign powers. Britain also snatched the island of Hongkong from the Chinese rulers by forcing a 99 years lease on them. Taking advantage of the weakness of China, Russia also colonised some part of China like the regions Vladivostok in 1858. Between 1937 and 1945 Imperial Japanese forces also invaded China, committed genocide, and occupied its eastern part for less than ten years. For thousands of years China had lived with the notion that it was the centre of the world civilisation and others around it were inferior barbarians. Comprehensive defeat at the hands of foreign powers and their sustained economic exploitation for a century by Britain, Russia and Japan shocked China as a nation to its foundation and left a deep scar on its collective psych. Today Chinese scholars recall this period as the hundred years of humiliation. A sense of bitterness therefore, exist in China that finds reflection in its revisionist foreign policy today.

Taiwan Factor

While China under the dynastic rule reached its lowest point, a western educated Chinese leader Sun Yat Sen formed a democratic party that overthrew the last young ruler of Quing dynasty in 1911 and setup a pro-west democratic form of government in China. Democratically elected Kuomintang party of Sun Yat Sen and his successors ruled China till 1949 when it was driven out of the mainland by the Communists party of China led by Mao Tse Tung. The elected deposed democratic government under Chiang kai sheik took refuse on the island of Taiwan from where they continued to function as the legitimate elected govt representing China in the UNO till 1971. This democratic government in Taiwan hoped that one day they will defeat the communists in the main land and restore the democratic rule back to China. When that did not happen for long, America under President Nixon and Henry Kissinger changed US policy towards communist China. They played Communist China against Russia and gave the permanent seat to the Communist China in the UN security council in 1971.  They also integrated communist China into the world market making them a member of the World Trade Organisation. (WTO)

China’s Rapid Economic Growth

After the Communist takeover of mainland China in 1949, it did not develop much under the regressive economic policies of communist policy makers. China under Mao Tse Tung remained a backward country till 1970. Moreover, the accesses of cultural revolution of Mao Tse Tung era created much discontent and discord in the Chinese society. All this led to a student’s uprising that ended at the Tiananmen Square on being suppressed brutally in 1989 by Deng Xiaoping. However, after Tiananmen Square episode,  Deng Xiaoping introduced an array of liberal economic policies to open up and boost the Chinese economy to improve the lot of an average Chinese. With the help of American finance, technology and free market forces, Chinese economy, infrastructure, manufacturing, and exports multiplied by leaps and bounds in the first decade of the 21^st century. Chinese GDP shot up from 734.5 billion Dollars in 1995 to 17.3 trillion Dollars 2021 making it the second largest economy of the world after America. China has also emerged as the topmost exporting country of the world with highest foreign exchange reserve of 3.5 trillion Dollars. In many sectors like rare earth, lithium, cobalt, Integrated Circuits (IC), mobile and IT spares, power transmission, computers and EVs, China has acquired near monopolistic position in export of components. Through careful planning , over a period of time , China has created critical supply chain dependency of the world manufacturing that makes many world businesses vulnerable to its disruption. The unprecedented growth of Chinese economy has also manifested itself outside its boundary in the form of Belt and Road Initiative through which China spent trillions of dollars to built intercontinental road, railways , gas pipelines and shipping facilities to connect China directly to South Asia, Central Asia, Europe and Africa. It also acquired many strategic deep sea ports for itself at Djibouti in Africa, Gwadar in Pakistan , Hambantota in Sri Lanka,  Kyaukpyu  in Myanmar and Kompot in Cambodia along its sea lanes of communication and energy supply lines called the “string of Pearls” causing much concern among the Indian strategists.

Chinese Assertiveness and Revisionism

When China opened its economy in 1989 under Deng Xiaoping, he knew that the Chinese growth would upset the world. Therefore, he projected China’s growth model as a “peaceful growth” and instructed the Chinese policy makers to keep a low profile in the world  affairs by “hiding their strength and biding their time”. As a result, the initial  rise of China remained smooth and un-noticed till 2013 when everything changed Mr Xi Jinping came to power.   Sudden increase of economic and military power had given China a new confidence and under Xi Jinping China started seeking remedies to the many historical wrongs done to it during the hundred years of humiliation. This assertive and aggressive foreign policy of China was termed as the “Chinese revisionism”. Under above policy China led by Xi Jinping has set following goals for itself-

• Unification of Taiwan by 2049
• Claim ownership of South China Sea.
• Revision of Chinese borders.
• Make Chinese Army and Navy larger and stronger than America

• Unification of Taiwan – Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones which are essential for various digital devices and weapons. That makes Taiwan a very important country for the world.

  

  Though US along with majority of states including India have accepted “One China policy” in principle, most countries are against its forcible unification in China through any kind of military action. The current democratically elected government of Taiwan has declined to merge with China.   Unfortunately, China is threatening military action which US is trying to prevent through forming new alliances in Indo-pacific like the AUkAUS, QUAD etc.

• Trouble in South China Sea – Importance of South China Sea (SCS) lies in the fact that China conducts 80 % of its foreign trade through it. Communist China had been claiming most part of the SCS through its “Nine Dash Lines” since 1949. Problem is that China’s nine dash claim transgresses the claim of many neighbouring countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, Malasia etc in South East Asia. Philippines even went to international court and won a verdict in 2016 against Chinese claims but China has declined to accept the ruling of international court and forcibly fishing in the territorial waters of its neighbors. To enhance its claims, it has also created four artificial islands called the Spartly island and militarized it.

  

  China is also objecting to the presence and movement of foreign ships including military vessels in SCS without its permission. US, western powers, and India are sticking to a policy of Free and Open Seas in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of Seas (UNCLOS).

• Chinese border Disputes – China has territorial disputes with 17 countries1. These countries include Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Singapore, Brunei, Nepal, Bhutan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Tibet, and India. Under its new foreign policy of assertiveness and cartographic aggression, China has put forward un-tenable claims over many parts of its neighbour’s land causing tensions, skirmishes, and concentration of troops in border areas. In India China has claimed the entire Arunachal as part of China and refusing to delineated the undefined borders between India and China in the Leh , Ladakh and Ksai Chin regions.
• Growth of China’s Military Power – China has emerged as the largest defence spender in the world after USA.  It spends $270 billion every year on its defence compared to only $73.6 billion spent by India. With 2 million defence personnel, China has the biggest standing army in the world which is equipped with the most modern weapon system. Its navy is the second largest Navy of the world but likely to surpass America numerically by 2030. China also has the third largest Airforce in the world after USA and Russia. China  has a huge indigenous defence industry and technology to support its army.  All this makes China a world class military power next only to USA and Russia.

Conclusion

Considering above, it is apparent that China has emerged as the top economic and military power of the world today. China’s spectacular growth coupled with Mr Xi’s aggressive foreign policy and revisionism is causing US-China tensions to rise over the years. The risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea between China and the United States and its allies and other parts of Asia and SCS  is growing. Taiwan strait in South China sea and India’s eastern borders are the two active flash points where armed conflict cannot be ruled out in future. China’s strategic ingress into South Asia with economic and political interference through its BRI projects like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) connecting China’s Xinxiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar Sea port, Leh-Kathmandu Railway project in Nepal, Kunming-Kyaukphyu railway project in Myanmar,  99 years lease of Hambantota sea Port in Sri Lanka and its strategic foot hold in the Maldives poses a huge strategic challenge to India in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) where it had traditionally enjoyed the status of a regional power. To improve its security situation and retain its influence in South Asia and IOR, it has become incumbent on  India to improve its relations with its neighbours to prevent them from drifting away into the strategic lap of China . This will compromise India’s influence in the region severely and will be a big setback to its security. Therefore, China today is a big strategic challenge to India and India has no choice but to address it in all its earnest.

Author is the former Air Officer – in – Charge Administration ( AOA) of the Indian Air Force. Views are authors own .