Decades of negotiations and Joint Working Group meetings have not made any worthwhile progress towards settling the long-standing border dispute along the 3488 Kms India China border. China has shown no desire, over the past sixty years, to resolve the dispute, and in fact, their multiple claim lines including some outrageous ones and their inconsistent stance have actually resulted in an increase in the number of contentious points along the border. China uses the disputed border as a convenient pressure point against India. Border Stan-doff in Chumar in 2014, Burtse in 2015 and Doklam in 2017 were typical examples of this. China rolled out the Wuhan virus in December 2019. Even now, after a year, the whole world continues to reel under its impact with China being the only exception. Detection of new mutant strains is only making things worse.
At the dawn of twenty first century, China was already well on track vying for the numero-uno position in the world order. As 2020 panned out, the situation looked tailor made for China to come to the world’s rescue in fighting the virus and its painful economic disruption. But instead of availing the opportunity to earn global good will and enhance its soft power, China shed all pretense of the ‘benign Chinese rise’ and exploited the crisis by adopting a tough stance on trade with countries like US and Australia, attempting aggressively to gobble up companies in the strained global markets and blatantly using a “debt trap strategy” against third world countries. This hurry to establish an economic monopoly seems to have been dictated by the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) professed goal of transforming China into a ‘fully developed and advanced nation by 2049’and the fear of “Growing old before growing rich”.
In its relentless pursuit to become a High Income Country (HIC), China feels constrained by its inadequate access to the oceans and perceives a desperate need to break the stranglehold in the Malacca strait. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) provides China a gateway into the Arabian Sea and Middle East, and a viable alternative to get around the Malacca strait strangle-hold.
Although Indian Army’s surgical strike across the Line of Control with Pakistan in 2016 and the Balakot air strike by Indian Air Force in early 2019 had demonstrated a renewed Indian resolve to shift gears in Jammu &Kashmir, these incidents were not really inconsistent with the periodic spikes witnessed in the India-Pakistan border dynamics, and China, therefore, had no reason to be unduly disturbed by these. But, unexpectedly, the changing trend continued and in August 2019, the Indian Parliament, through a two thirds majority, passed a resolution for abrogation of Article 370 and reorganization of J&K state. This took China and Pakistan by surprise. These developments, combined with India’s renewed Border infrastructure push, especially the Darbuk – Shyok – Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) road with an additional link under construction from Nubra valley via Saser La, suddenly altered the existing equation in Ladakh. Indian armed forces now had access to Highway 219 across the LAC as well as to Aksai Chin and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Equally significant is the fact that Gilgit-Baltistan, through which CPEC runs, lies just to the West of DBO. It is also significant that an earlier resolution to unify Kashmir, which had looked insipid and meaningless when it was passed by the Indian parliament in 1994, suddenly shed its insipid looks and seemed within the realms of possibility. In the backdrop of these developments, China perceived a certain degree of vulnerability to its critical lines of communications in Aksai Chin and even the CPEC. It had to act fast and chose the time tested salami slicing strategy to remove the newly manifested vulnerability.
Over the years, a number of border agreements such as the 1993 Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement and the 1996 Agreement on Confidence Building Measures have been signed between India and China to deal with any incidents that may take place along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Although border incidents involving hand to hand scuffles to physically block the other side’s patrols from moving beyond agreed limits was not an uncommon occurrence, protocols laid down in the agreements successfully prevented these incidents from flaring up into use of fire arms or attempts to cause any injury during such ‘scuffles’. It is, however, important to note that almost always, such incidents were triggered by seemingly deliberate actions by Chinese PLA and every time it was Indian troops that walked the extra mile to prevent any major flare up. This had become an established pattern.
Summer of 2020 saw the Chinese repeatedly indulging in incursions and retaining troop presence beyond mutually agreed limits in Ladakh, especially in Depsang plains, Galwan Valley and the Finger area along the North Bank of Pangong Tso. PLA cleverly combined these actions with aggressive overtures along their border with Nepal and Bhutan also, in an attempt to convey the impression of activating the entire northern border of India. On 15 June 2020, PLA troops violated all protocols and norms and attacked unsuspecting Indian Army personnel with rods and sticks killing 20 Indian soldiers in Galwan valley. In the Indian response, China reportedly lost over twice the number. All these happened without any exchange of fire! The entire country mourned and honoured the death of India’s martyrs. In sharp contrast, in order to claim a moral victory, PLA felt compelled to hide its causality figures and deny its fallen soldiers the honour and recognition they deserved. Although the Corps commander level talks which followed prevented any further flare up, China refused to pull troops behind mutually agreed limits and restore status quo ante. Instead, it unleashed its propaganda machinery claiming that Indian troops had triggered the turmoil and China had only acted in defence and taught India a proper lesson in the bargain. In the garb of free press, surprisingly, handful of Indian media houses and even some of the self-proclaimed Indian strategists also subscribed to this Chinese propaganda. Through this widespread false propaganda, Indian army, Indian government and the country as a whole was being projected in poor light. For the Army, the false propaganda of ‘China having taught India a lesson so easily’ by some people within the country was far more hurting than the hazards they faced.
It was under these circumstances that the Indian Army sprung a surprise on 29/30 August 2020. For the first time since 1962, Indian troops made a total departure from their established pattern of response to Chinese incursions and carried out a counter move and occupied the Kailash mountain Range, South of Pangong Tso. It was a perfectly legitimate action as the features they occupied are well on the Indian side of the LAC. In its sheer audacity and far reaching implications, this perfectly legitimate action took the Chinese and many critics of the Army even within India, by total surprise. It had made the Chinese incursions along the North bank of Pangong Tso irrelevant and unviable while giving Indian troops domination over the Maldo area, Spangur Gap, Pangong Tso and also created certain degree of vulnerability for the Xinjiang highway. Altogether, in many ways, it turned the tables on the Chinese and for once India retained the initiative in the sector. Although PLA continues to be in an advantageous position in the Depsang plains to the North, control over Kailash Range makes India’s overall position in the sector far more balanced than it has ever been after the 1962 war.
What can China do now? Evicting the seasoned Indian troops from the Kailash Range may not be an option. The rugged, treacherous, high altitude mountainous terrain imposes severe restrictions on employment of equipment and use of high tech gadgets and war fighting equipment. The single biggest asset under such conditions is human resource, the high altitude oriented, acclimatized, seasoned, experienced and motivated soldier. This is the asset that India cashed on to successfully counter the PLA. Rotation system of the Indian Army ensures that at any point in time, at least one third of all soldiers and officers of every combat unit of the army are high altitude trained and possess a high degree of high altitude experience and expertise. High altitude expertise does not come with training alone as it requires prolonged stay and exposure to the extreme weather and terrain conditions. India can rightfully boast of the best mountain troops in the world. This capability, combined with a highly professional, combat oriented Air Force and a Navy, which, either alone or with allies can cause considerable disruption to Chinese Shipping, makes the overall Indian position far stronger than something that China can run roughshod over.
It is also a fact that while its economy may be on very sound footing, the Chinese armed forces may not be so. The last successful battle it fought was in 1962 where the PLA was actually given a walkover except in isolated pockets. Thereafter, whether against the Indian Army in Nathula in 1987 or against the Vietnamese in 1979, PLA’s record has been poor. Another major factor which is generally glossed over is the fact that the Chinese armed forces are in the midst of a prolonged transformation mode, transforming from a force structured, equipped, manned and trained to guard its borders to becoming a professional global military superpower with focus on the oceans, space, cyber, power projection and acquiring out of area and expeditionary capabilities. A great deal of PLA’s human expertise and experience in the mountains has been traded for acquiring a different set of skills while embarking on this journey of becoming a global superpower, and at the moment, the PLA looks unsure of its capability to execute a classical offensive operation against any well entrenched adversary in the mountains. It is also a long way short of acquiring the status of a global superpower with glaring voids in requisite leadership, experience, credible allies, and proven ability for coordinated action by globally dispersed forces. Further, some critics of PLA even say that for far too long the Chinese have focused so much on ‘winning wars without fighting’, that they have forgotten the art of ‘winning wars with fighting’. So, it is logical to conclude that the PLA, at present and for a few years down the line, would try to avoid any major armed conflict in the mountains and is not likely to go beyond uncontested actions such as grabbing unheld areas, posturing etc and may be in extreme need, resort to stand off strikes. The Indian armed forces and the Indian Army in particular, have caused the Chinese a dilemma for the time being. Through sheer professionalism and dedication, our soldiers and their commanders have effectively put a stop to the PLA’s practice of unfettered rogue intrusions, imposed caution on PLA and secured much needed time for the country to fill our capability voids and be totally prepared. Indian soldiers have once again stood tall against all odds and done the country proud.
We must continue negotiations with China in real earnest without throwing away the strategic advantage that our troops have achieved through a magnificent tactical action, displaying thorough professionalism and herculean effort which called for extreme human endurance, dedication and sacrifice to occupy the treacherous Kailash Ranges and remain deployed there during winters.
We must remember that, with China, talks will only lead to more talks; they always make it appear as if resolution of the problem is within easy reach, while deliberately keeping the resolution elusive. China will also continue to woo our neighbours and foster very close ties with them and also spare no efforts to nurture strong anti-India segments in India’s neighboring countries.
China’s strategy and approach against its adversaries is always multi-dimensional and never restricted to Military or economic dimensions alone. This facet of the Chinese strategy is brought out clearly in the 2019 Annual Report of Department of Defence to the US Congress titled, ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China’. The report states “China harnesses academia and educational institutions, think tanks, and state run media to advance China’s security interests. China’s foreign influence activities are predominantly focused on establishing and maintaining power brokers within a foreign government to promote policies that China believes will facilitate China’s rise, despite its stated position of not interfering in the internal affairs of foreign countries”. It is also obvious that China finds democratic countries like India a fertile ground to unleash its ‘Three Warfares’ strategy encompassing psychological, legal and media war fares.
Authoritarian China has serious fragilities too which it is extremely sensitive to and fiercely hides. For far too long, purely for deriving economic benefits through trade relations, the World closed its eyes to the harsh, ruthless, undemocratic systems within China. This had given China a great deal of comfort and a moratorium from any interference or even criticism from the world community about its savage, autocratic systems, while at the same time enjoying a free hand to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. This must stop. India must join hands with other nations and exploit every fissure in the Chinese system, however small it may be, to make China feel the pain and look inward. China fears pro democratic ideas more than it fears any adversary. The time is ripe and opportunity begs for actions like supporting democratic ideas in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. People of Gilgit-Baltistan, on whom the CPEC has been thrust upon, must get support from India and the world community to fight for their legitimate rights. Also, as the level of prosperity increases in China, its autocratic governance system is bound to prove inadequate to meet the ever-increasing aspirations and demands of its huge population and related security challenges. Social media focus and propaganda efforts to exploit such opportunities must become an on-going process. We must explore and create options for ourselves. For a start, as China does not accept the existing borders of Tibet and considers Arunachal as South Tibet, India should have no hesitation in revoking its stance about Tibet’s status and should go even one step further and link it with China’s recognition of J&K.
The ease with which China can be made to feel threatened and the limit to which it can go to stifle even random, feeble individual criticism is exemplified in what it did to the Arsenal Soccer player Ozil, a German Muslim of Turkish origin who voiced concerns about the Uigurs of Xinjiang. Arsenal promptly dropped him from the club at the behest of China!!The latest target of the all-powerful Chinese Communist party is Jack Ma, the celebrity new generation business tycoon of China. China also feels easily threatened by religious faiths and religious institutions. China’s fierce determination to appoint a person of its choice as the next Dalai Lama is a reflection of this fear. China also destroys churches and is the only exception where the Pope cannot appoint Bishops; the Communist Party of China appoints its own Bishops. In May 2020 China even went to the extent of removing Crosses from Churches in the country. Dragon has a weak underbelly which must be thoroughly exposed and exploited.
In the eventuality of an India-China war, the question will not be who wins, but whether India can impose a cost on China higher than what it would be prepared to pay for a perceived victory and that is the capability India needs to focus on. With a long-term adversary like China and the perpetual irritant Pakistan, we do not have the luxury of delaying or diluting our defence preparedness. It is also relevant to note that in the India-China scenario, the terrain dictates that conventional means of armed conflict will continue to retain its relevance, with the newer, emerging dimensions of modern war fare becoming ‘add-ons’ to conventional capability. Therefore, modern conventional military capability suited for the terrain will remain imperative for India. We also need to shift our main defence focus from the Western to the Northern borders. India needs credible tri services conventional capability combined with strong political resolve to deter China. The Indian navy and Air Force will be called upon to play crucial roles in any future India China conflict. The time has also come for forming appropriate military alliances. Rejuvenation of QUAD is a right step in this direction.
The game has only begun. We must learn our lessons fast. The respite our soldiers secured for the country against all odds, may, at best remain valid for a short term. The dragon may even look for desperate face-saving actions as early as next summer. There is no option for India but to remain ever vigilant to-counter China. There should also be no doubt about the need to ensure adequate defence preparedness at all times and providing necessary wherewithal to our armed forces on priority. Above all, the nation must recognize the herculean efforts and dedication of the Indian Armed Forces and salute the Indian soldier.
