Strengthening U.S.-India Ties: A New Era of Cooperation
Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to Washington has marked a significant milestone in U.S.-India relations. The visit resulted in substantial progress across multiple domains, including trade negotiations, defense collaboration, and supply chain partnerships. As India’s economic influence continues to grow, both nations recognize the need for closer cooperation to address shared strategic interests and policy challenges.
Advancing Bilateral Trade Relations: A key outcome of the summit was the announcement of negotiations for a Bilateral Trade Initiative (BTI). Previous efforts to establish a comprehensive trade agreement had faced obstacles, including challenges at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and stalled Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) negotiations. However, India’s recent success in finalizing trade deals with Australia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) demonstrates a renewed commitment to trade liberalization. This shift signals a more proactive approach toward economic engagement with global partners, including the United States.
Deepening Defense Cooperation: Defense collaboration emerged as another significant area of progress. Both nations committed to pursuing new initiatives, such as a reciprocal defense procurement agreement and joint development of autonomous systems. A particularly noteworthy aspect of the discussions was the leaders’ pledge to “break new ground to support and sustain the overseas deployment of U.S. and Indian militaries in the Indo-Pacific.” This statement suggests a deepening of defense ties, potentially leading to increased interoperability, joint exercises, and expanded security cooperation in the region.
The joint statement referenced a U.S. review of its defense export policies, specifically regarding fifth-generation fighter jets and undersea warfare systems.
Conclusion: Prime Minister Modi’s visit has laid the foundation for a stronger, more dynamic U.S.-India partnership. As both countries navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape, sustained engagement in trade, defense, and strategic collaboration will be crucial in shaping a mutually beneficial future.
Strengthening Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Importance of Critical Minerals: Critical minerals are the backbone of the modern economy, essential for advanced technologies in industries ranging from defense and energy to electronics and transportation. However, the mineral supply chain remains highly vulnerable, posing a significant risk to national, economic, and energy security. Addressing this challenge requires a comprehensive strategy to build resilient supply chains that can withstand geopolitical disruptions and market fluctuations.
Challenges in Securing Critical Mineral Supplies: Despite ongoing efforts by both the government and private sector, major vulnerabilities persist. Policymakers must secure stable supplies of crucial minerals such as lithium and graphite—key components in advanced batteries—and tungsten and rare earth elements, essential for next-generation military technologies. India must take a multi-pronged approach, focusing on:
– Domestic resource development to reduce dependency on foreign sources
– Advancing processing and recycling technologies to maximize existing resources
– Strengthening international partnerships to diversify supply chains
– Promoting sustainable mining practices to ensure long-term availability
RAND Questions China’s Combat Readiness
U.S. Concerns Over China’s Military Modernization: Recognizing the growing capabilities of the PLA, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) began publishing an annual report in 1999 titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China. These reports highlighted China’s expanding military capabilities and strategic objectives.
The DoD’s 2024 report references the 2022 National Security Strategy, which asserts that China “is the only competitor to the United States with the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order.” As China aims for “national rejuvenation” by 2049, the Communist Party of China (CPC) is building a “world-class” military to pursue its revisionist ambitions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
RAND Report Challenges China’s Combat Readiness: A recent report by the RAND Corporation, an American nonprofit global policy think tank, contradicts the notion that China’s military modernization is aimed at preparing for war. Titled The Chinese Military’s Doubtful Combat Readiness, the report claims that China is modernizing the PLA primarily to uphold CPC rule rather than to engage in combat.
RAND argues that despite China’s military advancements, the PLA has historically prioritized political loyalty and enforcement of CPC rule over combat readiness. The report suggests that as China’s economic and political challenges grow, the PLA will focus more on safeguarding the CPC rather than preparing for external conflicts.
While China boasts the world’s largest army, navy, and an extensive stockpile of ballistic missiles, RAND asserts that “recent modernization gains have not fundamentally changed the PLA’s political orientation.” The report further claims that China is unprepared for a military confrontation with the U.S. over Taiwan.
PLA’s Modernization and Political Control: China’s Defense White Papers from 2013, 2015, and 2019 consistently highlight the PLA’s modernization focus and combat readiness, refuting RAND’s assertion that China’s military exists solely to uphold CPC rule.
PLA Combat Readiness: India and Taiwan Perspectives: RAND argues that “China has continued to shy away from combat operations.” However, evidence suggests otherwise.
First, the PLA’s doctrine of informatised warfare integrates command, control, surveillance, and cyber capabilities across military domains. The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) maintains high combat readiness, capable of transitioning from peacetime to full combat readiness within short notice. China’s 2023 Dong Feng-31 ICBM tests demonstrated rapid launch capabilities, reinforcing strategic deterrence.
Second, China’s actions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) against India contradict the notion of a passive military. The PLA’s 2020 incursions in eastern Ladakh involved a pre-planned deployment of 200,000 troops, heavy artillery, and armored vehicles. The PLA’s doctrine emphasizes “preparations and alert activities” for border security, evident in its continuous infrastructure buildup and military drills in Tibet.
Third, China’s repeated military drills and aerial incursions near Taiwan demonstrate operational readiness. The PLA conducts extensive joint exercises involving naval, air, and missile forces to simulate potential invasion scenarios. Recent deployments of advanced drone swarms and amphibious forces near Taiwan indicate significant military preparedness.
Is the PLA Combat-Ready?: RAND’s assessment of the PLA as politically oriented rather than combat-ready overlooks key military developments. While the PLA remains an instrument of CPC control, it has also evolved into a formidable force with regional and global ambitions. China’s military strategy prioritizes “winning local wars under the conditions of informationisation,” as evidenced by its modernization efforts, strategic exercises, and real-world engagements.
Despite RAND’s claims, China’s growing military assertiveness, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, India, and Taiwan, suggests a force that is not only modernizing but also prepared for combat operations when necessary. The PLA’s capabilities, doctrine, and strategic actions indicate that it is far more than just a political tool of the CPC.
India’s Gulf Strategy: Why Qatar Matters
Qatar is a key partner in India’s energy security and economic development. Its role in India’s growth trajectory has only deepened over the years, making it an indispensable ally in the Gulf region.
Diplomatic Priorities: Modi’s Special Gesture: Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an exception by personally receiving the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, during his state visit to India on February 17–18. This rare gesture underscored the high strategic importance India places on its relationship with Qatar.
The visit further cemented bilateral ties, which had already functioned as a de facto strategic partnership. Modi’s two previous visits to Qatar and his conferment with the country’s highest honor reflect the strong diplomatic and personal rapport between the two nations.
Strengthening Bilateral Relations Amid Challenges: Despite strong ties, a diplomatic hiccup occurred when eight former Indian Navy officers were detained on espionage charges. Their subsequent release and pardon by the Emir demonstrated the effectiveness of high-level diplomatic engagement and personal trust between the two leaders. This underscores the unique nature of Gulf diplomacy, where interpersonal relationships play a crucial role in fostering trust and cooperation.
Expanding Economic and Trade Cooperation: Today, India-Qatar trade fluctuates between $10 billion and $14 billion, with a mutual commitment to double this figure by 2030. The participation of Indian businesses and the large Indian workforce in Qatar’s economy further strengthens this partnership.
India and Qatar have taken significant steps to enhance trade and economic cooperation, including discussions on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). India’s success in implementing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE serves as a model for future India-Qatar trade agreements.
Qatar’s adoption of India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and the opening of a Qatar National Bank branch in GIFT City are expected to boost trade, investment, and tourism. Additionally, Qatar’s inclusion in India’s e-visa facility will further facilitate business and people-to-people exchanges.
Qatar’s Role in India’s Energy Security: Qatar plays a pivotal role in India’s energy sector, supplying over 70% of India’s natural gas (LNG and CNG) imports. In 2023, a 20-year agreement was signed with Petronet to supply 7.5 million tonnes of LNG annually from 2028, valued at $78 billion. This deal aligns with India’s Viksit Bharat 2047 vision and its climate change commitments.
Investment and Infrastructure Development: Despite Qatar’s significant financial resources, its investments in India have been relatively modest, amounting to around $1.5 billion. However, the announcement of a $10 billion investment in India’s infrastructure sector signals a major shift. This investment will focus on key sectors such as:
– Infrastructure and logistics
– Technology and manufacturing
– Food security and hospitality
The signing of an MoU between Invest Qatar and Invest India will further streamline investment opportunities and cooperation.
Expanding Collaboration in Technology and Security: India and Qatar have identified healthcare, food security, cybersecurity, AI, space technology, and digital governance as key areas of future collaboration. Indian startups are also set to participate in Web Summits in Doha in 2024–25, fostering innovation and entrepreneurship.
Joint Efforts to Combat Terrorism and Extremism: A significant outcome of the visit was the commitment to counter terrorism in all forms, including cross-border terrorism. India has expressed concerns over the alleged support for extremist groups from Gulf-based charities. As a result, both countries have agreed to enhance real-time intelligence sharing to combat terrorism, radicalization, and extremism, which threaten global stability.
Qatar’s Regional Influence and India’s Strategic Interests: In recent years, Qatar has positioned itself as a key mediator in regional and global conflicts. Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the region, a Turkish military base, and maintains strong relations with Iran. The visit provided an opportunity for India to exchange views on volatile regional dynamics while strengthening its strategic position.
Elevating India-GCC Engagement: Under Qatar’s chairmanship of the GCC, India has initiated a Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue and a Joint Action Plan. The establishment of a high-level mechanism led by Foreign Ministers further strengthens India’s engagement with Qatar, the GCC, and the broader Gulf region.
A Strengthened Partnership for the Future: Qatar’s significance in India’s energy security, trade, investment, and regional diplomacy has never been greater. The visit of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani marked a new phase in the India-Qatar partnership, with strategic, economic, and security collaborations expanding across multiple domains. As India deepens its engagement in the Gulf, Qatar remains a crucial partner in India’s extended neighborhood, shaping the future of bilateral and regional cooperation.
EU Chief in New Delhi
Why Europe Needs India Now More Than Ever: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to India marks a pivotal moment in EU-India relations. With trade between the two reaching $126 billion in 2024 and long-pending free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations underway, the visit underscores the European Union’s urgent need for new partnerships. As the EU faces challenges from both the United States and China, strengthening ties with India has become a strategic imperative.
Why the EU Seeks Stronger Ties with India: Recent global developments have reinforced the importance of a robust EU-India partnership. US President Donald Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff on European imports and China’s expanding economic influence have left Europe at a crossroads. In this uncertain landscape, India offers the EU both economic stability and strategic alignment.
Von der Leyen’s two-day visit, accompanied by a high-level EU delegation, included meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and key Indian ministers. This visit accelerated cooperation in trade, investment, technology, and security.
A Mutually Beneficial Economic Partnership: Trade remains the backbone of the EU-India relationship. The EU is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade in goods reaching nearly $126 billion in 2024—an impressive 90% increase over the past decade.
India’s rapidly growing economy, projected to become the third-largest by 2030, presents vast opportunities for European businesses. Key sectors such as automobiles, wines, and spirits view India as a crucial market amid rising global protectionism. Additionally, India’s “Make in India” initiative and its drive to become a manufacturing hub provide avenues for European investment and trade diversification.
For India, the EU represents an essential partner in reducing its dependence on China. European expertise in technology, infrastructure, and investment aligns with India’s “Developed India” (Viksit Bharat) vision and its ambitious goal of boosting total exports to $2 trillion by 2030.
Shared Strategic Interests in the Indo-Pacific: Beyond trade, India and the EU share common security concerns, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. China’s growing assertiveness, cyber threats, and maritime security issues have pushed the EU to deepen its engagement in the region.
India, with its expanding naval capabilities and strategic partnerships, plays a key role in maintaining regional stability. The EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC), established in 2022, has become a crucial platform for cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, digital governance, and green technologies. This initiative aims to strengthen supply chain resilience, economic security, and technological collaboration—critical needs for both partners.
Another key development is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which aims to enhance connectivity between India and Europe via the Gulf states, Israel, and Jordan. This project reduces reliance on traditional trade routes like the Suez Canal and diversifies supply chains, making it a significant geopolitical and economic initiative for both India and the EU.
India’s Role in Balancing Global Power Shifts: The EU’s increasing focus on India is also driven by global political shifts. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has strained EU-Russia relations, while India’s neutral stance has positioned it as a potential mediator. Despite India’s historical ties with Russia, the EU has chosen engagement over isolation, recognizing India’s rising geopolitical influence.
Rather than pressuring India to sever its economic ties with Russia, the EU is exploring ways to collaborate on shared priorities, such as securing supply chains for critical minerals and advancing defense cooperation.
The Road Ahead for EU-India Relations: While the potential for deeper EU-India ties is clear, success depends on translating diplomatic rhetoric into tangible outcomes. Key priorities include finalizing the long-delayed trade agreement, strengthening regional security partnerships, and enhancing technological collaboration.
As global uncertainties grow, India’s role in the EU’s strategic calculations will only become more significant.
It’s the Economy: Trump and Putin Squeeze Zelensky: The year 2024 proved to be a turning point for Ukraine. With Putin securing a fourth term and Donald Trump returning to the White House, US-Russia relations entered a new phase. In this geopolitical shift, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky found himself increasingly sidelined.
Economic Consequences of War: Russia and the US
The Russian Economy Under Strain: Ukraine has become a battlefield of attrition, with neither side able to sustain the war indefinitely. Western sanctions targeted Russia’s financial, military, and energy sectors, while billions in Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Europe. However, Moscow adapted by shifting to a wartime economy, ramping up military production, and securing crude oil exports to China and India.
Despite an initial economic contraction (-1.2% growth in 2022), Russia’s economy rebounded, growing by 3.6% in 2023 and 4% in 2024. However, economic challenges persist: GDP growth is projected to slow to 1-2% in 2025, inflation soared to 9.5% in 2024, and the ruble has depreciated by 21%. Russia has already spent over $200 billion on the war, diverting significant funds from social and infrastructure programs.
The US Economic Burden: The US has spent $65.9 billion on military aid to Ukraine since 2022, an expense that Trump has long opposed. Rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the war’s impact on commodity prices have hurt American businesses. Semiconductor production, dependent on Ukrainian neon and Russian palladium, has suffered, while over 1,000 Western companies have withdrawn from Russia, resulting in significant financial losses. According to estimates, US companies have lost $324 billion due to their exit from the Russian market.
Business First, Peace Second
Saudi Arabia Negotiations: A Business-Centric Dialogue: The recent US-Russia dialogue in Saudi Arabia focused primarily on economic interests rather than political resolutions. Notably, the discussions were led by business figures rather than diplomats. The US delegation included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, while Russia was represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov, and RDIF chief Kirill Dmitriev.
Oil Diplomacy: Russia’s Key Bargaining Chip: With Russia being the world’s third-largest crude oil producer, its energy sector remains a major economic pillar. Despite Western sanctions reducing fossil fuel export revenues, Moscow has continued to thrive, largely due to Chinese and Indian purchases. However, the latest US sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers have disrupted this trade.
US energy companies, particularly Chevron and ExxonMobil, face financial losses due to their partial withdrawal from Russia. Chevron retains a 15% stake in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, while Exxon exited the Sakhalin-1 project, incurring a $4 billion loss. During the Saudi negotiations, Russia proposed joint ventures in the Arctic, an area rich in untapped oil and gas reserves, signaling a potential thaw in US-Russia energy relations.
Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth: The Ultimate Bargaining Chip: With limited options, Zelensky has agreed to a minerals and reconstruction deal with Trump in exchange for US support. Under this arrangement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of future revenues from minerals, oil, and gas to a joint US-Ukraine fund for reconstruction.
Meanwhile, Putin has extended an olive branch to US businesses, offering access to rare earth minerals in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories. Ukraine possesses approximately 5% of the world’s rare earth mineral reserves, with the majority located in regions now under Russian control. These critical resources, essential for defense, aerospace, and technology industries, are valued at $14.8 trillion. Russia now controls an estimated $12.4 trillion worth of Ukraine’s energy, metal, and mineral deposits.
Conclusion: The Economics of War and Peace: The war in Ukraine, has ultimately boiled down to economic interests. While geopolitical considerations remain important, both the US and Russia are prioritizing business opportunities over ideological conflicts. With Zelensky increasingly marginalized, economic deals, not military strategies, are shaping the future of Ukraine.
Taiwan’s 2025 Crossroads: Navigating
Domestic and Global Uncertainty, Challenges for President Lai: President Lai Ching-te faces a highly complex political landscape in 2025, marked by:
– A divided domestic political environment, with strong opposition to his agenda
– Mounting pressure from China, which seeks to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty
– Global instability, as political transitions in key partner nations complicate diplomatic relations
How Lai navigates these challenges over the next 18–20 months will shape his party’s prospects in the 2026 local elections and influence his standing ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
The Road Ahead: The year 2025 will be a defining moment for Lai’s presidency. His success depends on:
– Managing domestic political gridlock or convincing voters that opposition forces are to blame
– Strengthening Taiwan’s partnerships, particularly with the United States
– Handling rising cross-strait tensions without provoking economic or military escalation
