Elephant in the Room – Unravelling the Indo-US-Russia Triangle
Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi’s state visit to USA on 20th June , 2023 indeed marks a turning point in the enigmatic relationship that two nations had shared till recently. While the administration and the apex leadership understand the inevitability of this strategic convergence and accept the geopolitical realities drawing Indo-US relationship closure, many old school analysts in western think-tanks and a section of vocal western media finds it difficult to comprehend how India manages its highly contradictory strategic relationship with two powerful but intensely hostile arch enemies i.e. United States and Russia. They are at a loss to understand how both powers accommodate India in this diametrically opposing relationships?
IIRF (Americas) President, Mr Guruprasad Sowle welcomes PM Narendra Modi to USA.
Later IIRF participated in a meeting with PM along with other leading American think tanks on 20th June , 2023 , in New York –
Geopolitics in this unique case has to be viewed and understood not in terms of cold war era mindset of closely held military alliances and military blocks but on an entirely new plain of realism of a multipolar world in which both US and Russia need India to balance the disproportionate rise of China in Asia. This puts India at a very sweet spot in the world of geopolitics today. Conversely India too needs both Russia and US to hedge its strategic interests in Asia against Chinese rise and also needs rapid economic development and for closing its gap in critical technologies. So how does India do this balancing act ?
Watch President IIRF (Americas) statement after the meeting
To think of it, it is pretty clear that India has little to no strategic role to perform in Europe hence its relationship with Russia or its neutrality in Europe actually means very little to US strategically. Whereas in Indo-Pacific, India has a huge strategic role to play , but Russia has no influence over the happenings in this region. Hence again, Indo-Russian ties has little to no bearing on US strategic interests in Indo-pacific. At the same time, the stark reality of today is that India has the power to tilt the strategic balance in Indo-Pacific in either direction. Therefore, in Indo-Pacific region, US cannot afford to let India not be on its side.
Under these circumstances all India needed to do is to convince US that its relation with Russia shall in no way impact US strategic interests in Europe or in Indo-Pacific. In real terms India has demonstrated superbly and firmly to both US and Russia that it is not available to the either parties to be used as an instrument to harm the other party. Its recent conduct has also brought home strongly that it will, under no circumstances allow its relation with either to be misused by the other party for any coercive diplomacy. Both US and Russia now understand it and respect the fact that India’s relation with them are not at the cost of each other .
As far as India’s world out look is concerned, US administration seems to finally come to the conclusion that India is indeed a pivotal state and therefore a natural ally of USA in Asia. Bipartition view in US exist to believe that India will never be a global threat to USA – ( Russia or no Russia ! ). Culturally India is a peace loving civilization but unlike China, it has no global ambitions for revisionism. Geopolitically India is a status quoist power in South Asia who has no ambitions to re-draw the boundaries of its neighbors. It is also the most legitimate net security provider to its neighborhood and to the Indian Ocean region . Another contrasting realization among the Eurocentric planners of global affairs is that with the unprecedented rise of China in Asia, a weak and in-effective India is no longer in the strategic interest of the West . US today wants India to break the ceilings of the ‘goldy lock zone’ of their relationship and become strong enough to counter-balance China’s rising influence in Indo-Pacific as well as South, Central and West Asia. To maintain power equilibrium in this fast changing world, US can not leave India in Asia economically and militarily non-consequential .
As far as people to people relations are concerned, Indo-US soft power chemistry is phenomenal in nature and way way ahead of Russia or any other developed nation. Average Indian loves America immensely. Indians always viewed American democracy positively . Highly upward mobile educated and skilled middle class of India resonate strongly with the values of a free society of America. Thus the current intensification of Indo-US relation rests not on fragile grounds of hesitant distrust, but on solid grounds of hard calculation reflecting geopolitical realities and inevitable convergence of US and India’s geopolitical interests.
Extremely sophisticated and meticulously handled Indo-US-Russian relationship by Hon’ Prime Minister Modi and his equally deft Foreign Minister Hon’ Dr Jaishankar on the one hand and maturity and farsightedness of President Joe Biden and his administration will indeed go down in the history as a classic example of golden diplomacy and a classical case study in the literature of International Relations.
(Views are authors own)
Excellent take on an extremely sensitive geopolitical equation
Thank you General
A very insightful piece. However, the US seems to be in a ‘Catch-22’ situation vis-a-vis India, IMHO. While the DoD wants to partner India, which is its corner stone strategy to balance China in the IPR, the State Department worries about a Rising India and its Strategic Autonomy. So it uses its tool-kits with Soros, Equity Labs, et al to generate anti-India sentiments. How the White House will balance this dichotomy holds the key to Indo-US relations.
Thank you General for your sharp, analytical views. American democracy, like any other democracy in the world speak not in one single voice. American openness allows differing views on their national as well as international issues. If there exist a viewpoint there can be many dissent. Opinion making industry in west are free to have their own perceptions about Indian democracy. What ultimately matters is what the majority wants in a democracy. You will agree that Indian democracy has come a long way. It is mature and resilient enough to take care of aberrations infused by extraneous forces . There is a limit to what external forces can do to the internal dynamics of Indian democracy. Indian democracy consists of 1.4 billion free, vibrant, aspirational, educated, skilled and relatively young demography spread over 3.287 million Sq Km territory who are not such easy targets for manipulation from outside. Ultimately the wishes of the people of the two great democracies will decide the fate of this relationship.
This visit of PM Modi is significant in many ways. For IIRF it is an opportunity good to be utilised. Not only does it speak highly of Mr Guru, our US face, but also reflects the role private sector is going to play in future US India partnership particularly in ICET.. My best wishes for the forthcoming meeting with Honourable Prime Minister Modi jee.
Thank You Admiral. Your views are valuable to us . As advised , IIRF will be focusing more on the Indo-US Defence Industry co-operation and hi tech sector cooperation issues in the coming days.
This indeed will be a historic moment in the journey of IIRF, when PM of India on American soil will be giving his ears to an Indian think tank. My heartiest congratulations to all the founding members of IIRF. Your toil has borne fruits now. The future generations will benefit from your hard work, dedication and commitment. My good wishes to you all.
Thank You Group Captain.
This visit of Modiji is definitely going to be a milestone in the annals of Indian diplomacy. Invitation to IIRF members in US to meet Modiji itself shows the contribution of IIRF as a think tank in the fields of strategy, economy and diplomacy. Congratulations to all founders of IIRF and a grand salute to their tireless contribution towards understanding world power dynamics.
Thank You Group Captain.
A great opportunity for IIRF’s US face, in times of an
extremely sensitive geopolitical equation, to reflect on the role the private sector is going to play in future US India partnerships. Best wishes Guru Sowle for your forthcoming meeting with PM Modi.
Thank You for the generous comment from a Journalist !
I congradulate the IIRF founders for arranging a meeting of our beloved PM and the president IIRF at U. S. Indeed a proud moment for all.
Thank you Mr Ravindran for your views.
Never before have we witnessed such major initiatives between India and US, attempting to forge strong ties through cooperation in areas where interests of both countries converge. Mr Guru makes very relevant observations about the possibilities of unprecedented breakthroughs in the days ahead.
A boost in India-US bilateral relationship holds huge potential to positively impact on global geopolitics.
Thank you General for your generous comments.
Modi ji is going to address Congress here. The speech would be Modi’s second to a joint meeting of the U.S. legislature, a rare honor for a leader once denied a visa to enter the United States over human rights concerns.
Thank you Madam . IIRF welcomes more views from the Indian diaspora like you.
It is an honor and privilege to welcome our Honorable PM , His Excellency, Narendra Modi! Thank you all for your posts and responses on this Historic event, In the ultimate analysis, No partnership is perfect, but some partnerships are more equal than others, I see India – US partnership to be the most impactful International synergy in the 21st Century. Indian leadership, including our hon PM and our Foreign Minister have positioned India on a strategic platform in the World Stage. Indian Americans are excited about this History being ,made by Shri Modi on his upcoming visit. India a a big brand in America now in all spheres, Whitehouse am sure is looking at India as one of its best friends in making this World a better place, in the ever changing Geo Political Situation. Please standby for more updates from me on my meeting with the PM and his Visit. I would also like to thank Shri Taranjit Sandhu, Ambassador of India to the Unites States : Consul General in Houston, Shri Aseem Mahajan; Consul General in New York, Shri Randheer Jaiswal ; Dy Consul General, Dr Varun Jeph and the Indian Mission to UN for inviting me to this historic meeting with Modi and it is indeed a huge acknowledgement to IIRF team in US and india to be able to make this impact on the world stage and contribute to the Indo-American corridor. And also thanks to all my fellow board members in US and in India for being there. A special shout out to our Advisors and Patrons.
Nations have, or ought to have, long memories. Sour experiences of the past maybe forgiven under changed circumstances, but they should not be forgotten; in the harsh world of international relations, every country worth its salt looks after its own interests, first, foremost and every time.
India’s markets, a large and aspirational young population and its emerging confidence are the reasons why countries that are not our neighbours woo us, and our neighbouring countries hedge against us. Citizens can only hope that our national leadership keeps their feet firmly on the ground and deal with suitors strictly on their capability and willingness to contribute to India’s future.
We can not agree more with you Brig Sanal. A nation worth its salt must stand on its own feet. PM Modi’s ‘Atamnirbhar Bharat’ is all about it. However, nations also need to learn from each other and technology is vital for progress. No one nation has all the technology needed for progress. The globalized world is highly inter-dependent today and no nation can survive alone in isolation. Co-operation , collaboration and complementarity are the right mantra.
While it is an excellent commentary on the current geopolitical scene but I don’t entirely convinced that we should not strive to be a swing state alone, because India has potential to influence geopolitical scenario in future much more because there are certain strengths of India if leveraged properly can help India to become a power which can not be ignored. It’s market, it’s IT based technical prowess, its growth in certain military technologies which are its own,its demographic dividend, it’s influence on smaller countries of Africa and Indo pacific due to its vaccine maitree and many other such initiatives can help India to get recognised as a country which can not be ignored.
You are right General. We can not agree with you more. India’s global stature and geopolitical standing does not permit it to remain content with being merely a swing state. That is why Dr Jaishankar consistently asserts that India is striving not to be a member of any power block but emerge as an independent pole in the region to promote peace , stability and progress. PM Modi’s assertion that we no longer live in the era of wars implies that in todays geo-economic state rivalry, the “logic of conflict” should be expressed in the “grammar of commerce.” Dr Jaishankar again puts it very aptly in his iconic book ‘The India Ways’ that in todays world we need to learn to live with frenemies. Global adversaries are competitors not enemies. World needs this kind of sensibility and Indian ethos and Indian diplomacy provides it. Thanks.
In the emerging world order, two facets are clearly discernible. The first is that while the US will be displaced by China as the leading economic superpower, it will continue to be the leading military superpower for the foreseeable future. The second is the emergence of China as the next superpower and its concerted efforts to overtake the US both economically and militarily. The ensuing competition is turning out to be one between democratic nations and dictatorship of Chinese Communist Party.
India has been right so far in following an independent foreign policy, India’s aim is to emerge as an independent pole in a future multi polar world. Aligning with nations that have a strategic necessity to contain China’s destabilizing revisionist policies at the cost of other nations is thus essential.
Very true General. Thank you for sharing your views.
Great initiative. Will go a long way to enhance India USA strategic partnership
Thank you General
This is a great opportunity for both countries. The Indus International Research foundation has done well in organising this meet.
Thank you
It is a great gesture to welcome the Prime Minister of India. PM Modi is really doing great work for India and will ensure that the a great civilization and the greatest democracy forge their great ties again. Jai Hind
Thank you Colonel
India and US, the two largest and the oldest democracies of the modern world are natural allies. Realpolitik and many mis-readings on the ground by both resulted in a relationship that kept it in a limbo for a long time. In the case of USA, it was probably because of the super-power syndrome. Also it was believed in US that despite all the known drawbacks of Pakistani establishment, it was the preferred choice over India to keep the Russians at bay. India at that time was least developed and therefore, lacked the confidence to deal with USA on an equal footing. Even when the Brits and the US began moving their carrier forces into the Indian Ocean, India had no choice but to seek USSR help instead relying on its own infant Navy. Those troubled times are now over since the early part of this century. PM Modi’s pragmatic approach to realpolitik has now found support in the US. Indo-US relationship was on an upward trajectory since President Obama’s Presidency and continued during Trump and now Joe Biden’s Presidency. That the two need one another has been clearly understood, by both the nations. Recent improvement in relations between the two countries is the result of above process. While military understanding and co-operation has been attained to a large degree, it is the economic relation that needs further intensification. Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s Visit to US at this juncture, has rightly attracted extraordinary interest in many quarters. Indo-US trade along with access to critical technology are high on the agenda. However, a lot more is yet to be done. PM Modi and President Biden are expected to do the needful in this direction during this state visit.
Indus International Research Foundation Americas, an arm of the IIRF India is trying to contribute its bit in this direction to improve the Economic and Commercial linkages between the two countries. Mr Guru Sowle, President IIRF Americas, will meet Mr Modi on 20 June 2023 in New York and discuss with him what more Indian diaspora and the Indian Think Tanks in America like the IIRF can do to take this relationship to another level. We wish IIRF an excellent interaction with the PM Modi during his state visit to USA.
Thank you colonel for your analysis of past and encouragement for future for the Indo-US relationship.
India has always had a pragmatic approach to foreign policy. Thus while India is willing to be a partner of USA, it should not burn boats with Russia. India has had issue about balancing Maritime interests between Russia and USA, especially given that Russia is a major supplier of Naval Technolgy. At a deeper level China being excessively dominant is not even a good idea for Russia. So even Russia will benefit from a powerful India. USA would do well to engage with India to keep China in check. In the current context, India is perhaps the best placed major country to bring Russia and NATO backed Ukraine to the negotiating table.