After the Galwan clash last year, subsequent to Chinese incursions in Eastern Ladakh and 13 rounds of Military Commanders’ talks, the progress has stalled. Though, mutual withdrawals from both the banks of Pangong Tso and Patrolling Point (PP) 17 at Gogra took place but now, everything has reached an impasse on the cold and frozen frontiers of Ladakh, for the second winter. The border incursions at PP 15 at Hotsprings, Demchok and Depsang are yet to be resolved. As India had not hyped the Chinese unilateral transgressions in April 2020 internationally and had decided to sort out the issue bilaterally, the Chinese have relegated the importance to the negotiations and the press statement after the 13th round of talks was given by HQ Western Theatre Command from Chengdu and not by the Ministry of Defence from Beijing as hither-to-before. The storyline from the Chinese side is that the LAC on the Sino-Indian Border is not well defined and the local Military Commanders are sorting it out and does not call for international attention. Instead of refuting this narrative; sadly, we are going along with it!
Recently, a US DOD gave in its annual report that China has constructed a 100-home village on Indo-Tibet Border in an area claimed by India. The village is located on the banks of Tsari Chu in the Upper Subansiri District of Arunachal Pradesh. It is a part of Xi’s programme of Border Management, under which more than 600 villages are being constructed along the Indo-Tibetan Border. The villages have settled population, agricultural fields, communication, surveillance and have border guards. The Han border guards in turn have been encouraged to marry Tibetans in the villages with a dual aim of wiping out the Tibetan identity. If Tibetans lose their identity; the problem of Tibet is ipso facto solved; isn’t it? Coming back to border management, India should expect more and more incursions and construction of villages in our claimed areas. Add to that with the passing of the new border law that holds its territory sacred and sacrosanct; China has bared its teeth both in policy and execution. The Tunjungla crossing in Barahoti is an extension of the same trend. Another village further East of the first village has been reported in areas close to the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh. China has all the rights to construct villages close to the border, however, however, if built in a disputed area; we need to contest it.
What galls is the first official statement given by someone; most probably a bureaucrat of the Government of India who said that the area has been under the occupation of China and we can do little about it. True; it was an incursion after the Longju incident in 1959; still, such a statement is uncalled for. Just, catch hold of the official who gave this statement and sack him as he implies that a country of India’s stature and size is not only accepting the adverse occupation but also has vowed and reconciled that we will do nothing about it. Isn’t our land as sacred to us as the occupied Tibetan land for the Chinese? Chinese have no qualms to pass a border law while negotiations are on but we are hesitating and showing our helplessness to claim our own land? I think some sanity did dawn and a new statement was issued; “China has undertaken construction activities in the past several years in border areas, including in the areas that it has illegally occupied over decades. India has neither accepted such illegal occupation of our territory nor has it accepted the unjustified Chinese claims”. Fine; what next? What about a ‘note verbal’ and calling the Chinese Ambassador to the Foreign Office and dressing him down? What are our countermeasures? More important; do we need the US, Annual Report to spur us to action?
It gives an impression that with a standing Armed Forces of over 1.4 million we are prone to accept an adverse occupation? If politically, not expedient to physically evict the village and destroy the construction; we should build another village or post a couple of Kms away in areas ostensibly on the Chinese side of the LAC. Also, continue sending note- verbal accusing China of violating all agreements such as; Peace and Tranquillity, CBMs, Settled Population as the Political Parameters signed in 2005 and Border Defence Cooperation of 2013. Tell the world about the violation by the Chinese as they have scant respect for agreements and treaties or to the rule-based international order. We have to launch a diplomatic offensive and hold China accountable otherwise the world has seen how China usurped the littoral countries of the South China Sea of almost all their islands, territorial waters and EEZ. All are silent now and not even an eyebrow raised at China. The annexation has become a permanent feature as sloppy, supine and discordant attempts by the ASEAN has vindicated the futility of following appeasement policy towards China. Lessons of history have to be learned quickly lest we make the same mistakes again.
China giving Nuclear and Missile technology to Pakistan is well documented and I do not propose to recount it but what is on dismay is the unbridled arming of Pakistan with new modern Tanks VT4, CH4A and CH4B drones, HQ-9/P HIMADS (High to Medium Air Defence System) that can intercept aerial weapons platforms of adversaries ranging from an aircraft to a cruise missile at a range of 100 Kms. If such blatant arming of Pakistan is being done with no respect to our sensitivities, then why are we shy of arming Taiwan with nuclear and long-range missiles? It puzzles me as to why we are straining at the leash that has been tied to our necks by ourselves. We need to revisit our foreign policy. Just heard a happy augury that President Biden has invited Taiwan for the Summit of Democracies. We also could realign our policies toward Taiwan.
What is alarming and unacceptable is statuesque on the Ladakh border? It is the second winter and for nearly two years that we have not been able to carry out our routine patrolling in Depsang Plains. I am repeatedly writing about it so that the fact is not out of our minds. As I have said before, anything that has been accepted as a temporary measure will become permanent. It is exactly the game plan of the Chinese; to present a fait accompli to us to accept their version of the 1959 LAC. The more we prolong to revert to pre-April 2020 dispositions the more untenable it will become in times to come.
You must have read about the Biden-Xi virtual meet. Xi (Lie) Ping has said that China in its History has not taken one inch of land from anyone? Brazen, outright, unabashed Lie! Trying to capture Senkaku from Japan, daily simulating attacks on Taiwan, annexed Tibet and the South China Sea, attacked Vietnam, creeping incursions in Thailand, Myanmar, and Nepal, claims Arunachal and persistent incursions, annexed Dokolam, intruded in Sinchulumpa, claims Jakarlung, Pasamlung, and Sakteng in Bhutan, incursions in Barahoti in Uttarkhand, occupation of Aksai Chen, Depsang, extorting Shaksgam Valley an Indian territory from Pakistan, claims areas in Tajikistan, Kryghizistan, Kazakhstan, occupied inner Mongolia and has an eye on Far East Russia; Vladivostok. The list is not exhaustive and Xi (Lie) Ping says not an inch has been taken by China? One needs pathological and genealogical predilection to tell lies with such equanimity and poise. However, I still feel that he has read the history written by historians who are members of CPC, who specialise in manufacturing history? It would be interesting how their historians have written on the Tiananmen massacre of students, and butchering of 87000 Tibetans in Mar 1959? Their historians also claim that 40 percent of Tajikistan belongs to them and the entire South China Sea; of course, substantiated by the discovery of some broken pottery left behind in one of the islands by Adm Zeng He in the 13/14th Century? We need to learn a great deal from historians of CPC, who can churn out brand new history every alternate day.
I heard Jaishankar’s interview on Bloomberg where for the first time he pins the blame on China for the bad patch in the bilateral relationship. He also said that it is left to China as to what relationship it wants to have with India? First of all; Jaishankar, do not leave it to China alone. We need to dictate how our relationship should progress with China? We need to corner China diplomatically, economically and militarily as it ought to see India in a different light. It cares little for its relationship with India as far it is having a vibrant trade with a favourable trade balance. It also sits smugly while dealing with the border problem bilaterally without involving the rest of the world. As I have written before; not once in the 76th UNGA, SCO, BRICS, or in the Official statements after meeting heads of states of other countries; we have ever mentioned the Chinese incursions in Ladakh. China is very happy with India and has responded with an inconclusive 13th round of Military border talks, incursions in Tunjungla/ Barahoti, building villages close to the unresolved borders with literally no concern to our sensitivities. We are going gaga over China for giving an indication to hold the 14th Military Commanders’ talks. I fail to understand why we display such diplomatic nicety and yield diplomatic and physical space to China? Why are we not playing Tibetan, Taiwan and Xinjiang Card on the diplomatic bridge table?
Somehow, I am disappointed with most of our traders and a few of our people for not shunning the Chinese goods? The bilateral trade with China has reached an all-time high and is at $100 billion; a 30 percent increase from the pre-pandemic level. We need to enact a law punishing those border countries which do not contribute to a peaceful border by the imposition of heavy import duty. We also need to shore up our domestic production and also go into an alternate supply chain and break our dependencies on China. Initially, some difficulties have to be borne as our traders have become excessively dependent on cheap and inferior mechanical and electrical goods from China. Go to any hardware or electrical shops; rest be assured the first choice of the seller is to sell Chinese goods. You have to ask deliberately to show you goods manufactured in India. Customer awareness is absolutely essential without which this change of preference cannot be brought about.
Diplomatic Offensive
The next four months of winter our diplomatic offensive to expose China should be relentless, proactive and persistent. Following themes should be invoked by adducing proofs. We need to put China on the defensive diplomatically.
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It was China that initiated the offensive in Ladakh violating all bilateral agreements. Proof has to be shown by comparing the imageries of 20 Apr 2020 with those of 10 May 2020.
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It was China that occupied the buffer Zone North of Pangong Tso from Srijap to Finger 4. Again, imageries have to be shown to the world to validate our claim.
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India was pushed to pre-emptively occupy Kailash Range; South of Pangong Tso as China had amassed troops to capture it with a view to having a contiguous front on either side of the lake. Again, imageries should be displayed to prove our claims.
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China is executing a ‘Repeat Strategy’ that it had adopted in the South China Sea: Silent occupation, repeated incursions, stationing marine police and coast guard in order to substantiate their claims to waters of other littoral countries. Deploy strong naval forces backing such intrusions, diplomatically feign ignorance, and intimidated coast guard vessels and fishermen of littoral countries. Exploited and sowed divisions in ASEAN by buying of Laos and Cambodia who have always blocked any collective statements against it. Thereafter, give permanency to their occupation by dredging new islets and extending islands and constructing airstrips and harbours. Followed it up by stationing Armed Forces, deploying artillery, missiles, fighter aircraft, and battleships. Later, passed laws to incorporate the area under the Sansha City on Woody Island under the Hainan Province. Thus by ‘Creeping Invasion’ they have annexed the whole of the South China Sea. The same strategy is at work on Indo-Tibetan Borders. Now, sadly, no one talks of the South China Sea but only seeks the freedom of navigation in Indo-Pacific as if the ownership of the South China Sea is accepted and the only thing that needs to be done is an uninterrupted flow of world trade? Just last week Chinese Coast Guard ships used water cannons to prevent the Philippines’s supply ships from supplying their detachment permanently stationed in the Second Thomas Shoal which they call Ayungin Shoal. The US has threatened that it would invoke Art IV of its Mutual Defence Treaty with Manila if such a thing happens again. We have to counter China’s Repeat South China Sea (SCS) Strategy that is at play in Ladakh.
Measures to Counter China From Repeating its SCS Strategy in Ladakh
China that was used to the policy of surrender by Nehru, accommodation by Narasimha Rao, appeasement and taking donations to RGF, and signing MOU between CPC and Congress under the leadership of Manmohan Singh, has found that it is not able to make inroads into the NDA regime. Probably, it has bitten more than it can chew? Politically, this is not the time for Xi to yield grounds to India just after the 19th National Party Congress and running up to the 20th Party Congress in Oct 2022 that could formally give Xi his third term? Rather it would be Xi’s crucial year where he has to show himself as the core leader who can take on the US and brush aside India. I think the confrontation is not likely to end till Xi can prove that he has made India bite the dust. As this is not likely to happen, I appreciate the confrontation would be carried forward beyond the third winter next year. India should not let it happen and force China by enacting its counter-strategy in Ladakh.
We should counter China’s moves in Ladakh. Let us spend this winter as we have done the previous year. A high degree of surveillance has to be continuously done to ensure that we are not surprised; both land and aerial incursions to occupy strategic heights by PLA should not be ruled out. Though China is most unlikely to take such a step, however, we cannot rule out such an option as the newly appointed Commander of the Western Theatre Command has to prove his elevation. I personally believe the Chinese troops may not be able to prove themselves during winter and it is worth putting them on the backfoot by increasing our troop levels in the Middle Sector, which has been generally silent except for the Tunjungla-Barahoti incident. Let the Chinese react and keep guessing as to what we are up to? We should also simulate troops movement along the border and concentrate troops in different locations at selected locations all along the border. There are a number of ranges across Arunachal, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Ladakh that can put the Chinese on the defensive as we had done with the occupation of Kailash Range in Eastern Ladakh. Make a list and occupy a couple of them after thorough planning and faultless execution. We have to make China react and not just react to his moves and surrender the initiative. Beat the SCS Repeat Strategy at play in Ladakh with a counter-strategy.
To conclude, the time is critical to Xi as he has to prove himself in the next eleven months with a narrative that he has consolidated his motherland that was usurped by imperialists during the century of humiliation. The 1959 LAC has the stamp of Mao and the occupation up to it would give him the comparable status that he is craving for. Unless we force China and impose a counter-strategy, he is unlikely to yield: If not; well, we could lose Depsang for good and accept a fait accompli of losing territories up to the 1959 LAC? Time for action and unfolding of our Counter Strategy. If properly briefed the country has the political will at this point in time. Who will bell the cat?
