Synopsis : Ever since Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 , USA became the only global hegemonic power with unquestionable superiority in the three elements of statecraft : economic power , military power and diplomatic power. While USA went out of the way to help China to become an economic power for selfish interests for importing cheap goods , it did not foresee the possibility of China becoming a military power with exceptional diplomatic power for eventually challenging the hegemonic status of USA. We are at this situation now . While EU maintained cordial relations with USA for achieving economic success, it did not have an ambition to become a military power and hence USA did not consider that EU could be a challenger to USA. Things are probably changing now . India has never been a global economic power or a military power and USA did not assume that India will ever be a challenger to US hegemony . This also may be changing now . It is in this context , USA is redrawing its plans for maintaining its hegemonic status with top priority for containing and if required confronting China through different strategies. China is a comparable power to USA in all the three elements of statecraft. China has reinforced its relations with Russia and several other countries for creating a bloc of its own . With sufficient economic power , EU is trying to build adequate military power for becoming a global super power . While India is concentrating on actions for becoming an economic power , it is playing its cards carefully without aligning with anyone . In his analysis on “ Great Power Index 2024” Ray Dalio projects that USA, China , India and EU could be Global powers in a decade for creating a multipolar world putting an end to the hegemonic status of USA. USA will fight such a change with all the tools available with it so as to destabilize these aspiring global powers one after the other in a calculated manner . However , USA may not be able to prevent the rise of China and India as Global superpowers and perhaps EU as well .
1.Introduction
The end of the Second World War saw the emergence of two powerful blocs :The Western bloc led by USA and the Eastern bloc led by USSR. Each bloc recruited as many countries as possible within its fold giving birth to a period of Cold war . The Eastern Block led by USSR had Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany , Hungary, Poland and Romania as members . The Western Bloc led by USA had under its fold all the NATO members, certain countries in the Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa . India , Yugoslavia, Egypt, Ghana and Indonesia together founded the Non Alignment Movement as a third bloc and several nations joined this bloc. In effect, this was not a power bloc because of serious divergences within the group and the absence of adequate economic power and military power as a bloc. President Reagan cleverly manipulated the Soviet leader Gorbachev to come out with notions like Perestroika ( restructuring ) and Glasnost ( transparency ) which ultimately made Soviet Union to collapse in 1991 during the presidency of George Bush Sr . USA became the unquestionable leader of the unipolar world after the disintegration of USSR. Successive US Presidents relentlessly tried to keep the hegemonic position of USA through economic and military domination . In the meantime, China which became an economic power with the help of USA started challenging USA’s hegemonic position through different actions . With the help of its partners/allies in Asia Pacific , USA tried to contain China and attempted to take India to its fold during the period of Manmohan Singh and later during the period of Modi as a counterweight against China . As is well known , any hegemonic power , has only two options to deal with a challenging power , ie , accommodation or confrontation . During his second term , President Obama tried to accommodate China without success. USA had only one option , ie , confrontation . President Obama , President Trump ( first term ) and President Biden made several moves to counter China directly and through closer relations with the allies / partners of USA as well as with India . Arrival of President Trump in 2025 saw drastic changes in US policies .
- Great Power Index 2024
Ray Dalio’s “ Great Powers Index “ is a report on each of the leading 24 countries, showing readings for several different parameters . It also uses these measures to provide a prognosis for the next ten years. It analyses five major interrelated influences which drive the changing world order . These are:
- Internal order ( system ) which influences how well people in a country work together
- The world order ( system ) which influences relations among countries
- How the debt/money/economic system works,
- The forces of nature (droughts, floods, and pandemics etc )
- Use new technologies.
The rankings in 2024 ( index in a scale of 1 given in bracket ) were with US at the top( 0.89) followed by China ( 0.8 ) , Eurozone ( 0.56 ) and India ( 0.30) . Strategic autonomy for basic natural resources, Energy security and Food security are factors which help a nation to achieve the status of a global power . US is favourably placed for all the three factors. China , India and EU have problems for energy security . EU has also a problem of non-availability of adequate quantity of basic natural resources.
This analysis will be centred around USA, China , EU and India .
- United States With the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 , United States became the undisputed leader in the world with the status of a hegemonic power .
3.1.President Trump’s second term
President Trump’s second term is greatly influenced by the MAGA movement which believes that USA has lost its former greatness due to globalization, immigration, multiculturalism, and foreign influence. The prescribed remedy is the “America First” philosophy that prioritizes economic protectionism, deportation of illegal immigrants , selective immigration, reciprocal tariffs, and a foreign policy centred around “American domination” in global scene for maintaining its hegemonic status . President Trump’s policy on tariffs is primarily meant to prevent other nations taking advantage of the free market system of USA for promoting their commercial interests as well as to promote local production for creating wealth and employment in USA.
3.2. Problems identified in Project 2025 of MAGA movement
3.2.1. Slowing of economy : Consequent to the globalization there has been a slowing down of economy because of massive import of cheap goods from other countries particularly from China and shifting of manufacturing activities from USA to China . Trade deficit in goods has been increasing year after year and this will have to be stopped . USA represented around 30.2 % of the world GDP in 2000 and it has come down to around 25.8 % in 2024. In the meantime , China’s GDP rose from 3.6 % of world GDP in 2000 to 16.5 % in 2024. MAGA movement believes that “Make in America” for balancing the trade in goods is the only viable solution and an immediate adoption of reciprocal tariffs with a massive programme for investment for local production could be the only solution . Will the American companies take the lead for this transformation ? . Most likely not . The direct consequence of tariff will be higher inflation , reduced consumption and consequent slowdown of the economy with increase in unemployment.
3.2.2. Changing demography
Project 2025 has identified this as a major issue related to immigration . This could be an oversimplification of facts . It is true that the percentage of non-Hispanic white population has been coming down year after year . I give below the data of population in USA in 2000 and in 2024.
| Population | 2000 | 2024 |
| Total population million | 281.4 | 340.1 |
| Non Hispanic white population million | 194.5 | 195.4 |
| Non Hispanic as % of total population | 69.1 | 57.4 |
| Median age | 35.3 | 39.1 |
Source : US census bureau
It is obvious that the population of non-Hispanic white Americans has been coming down year after year and the MAGA Americans believe that they will be minority in 2050 in the country built by their ancestors . However , it will be a mistake to attribute this change in demography to immigration alone. TFR among non-Hispanic white American women has been falling year after year and it was 1.56 in 2022 against 1.65 for the total population and 1.96 for Hispanic women .
3.3.Major risks in US system
3.3.1. With MAGA’s doctrine for concentrating powers in the presidency and the Republican control of presidency, House and Senate , the institutions are becoming weaker . The US Senate which was well known for taking bipartisan independent positions has become highly partisan . The Republican- held House and the Senate have become simple followers of the President even in matters which violate traditions and conventions and even legal provisions needing to go to the courts with multiple appeals .
3.3.2. Illegal immigrants
Illegal immigrants ( estimated to be around 11 million ) contribute considerably for creating wealth in USA. In fact , they are working under deplorable conditions in gross violation of the principles of UN Global compact . What could be the alternative if majority of them are deported ? . Will the working class unemployed MAGA Americans volunteer to take up these jobs ? . Most likely NO . US will be compelled to go for selective migration of unskilled labour . USA successfully adopted the Knowledge- based -economy during Clinton period and every president who succeeded President Clinton continued to accelerate the growth of Knowledge -based -economy for ensuring the domination of USA in the world . This was possible only with large scale migration of engineers and technicians from Asian countries .The situation continues to be so now also . Can USA afford to send back these permanent and temporary residents back to their own countries ? . Probably NO . USA is in a catch 22 situation !!.
3.3.3. Median age
In spite of falling Total Fertility Rate ( TFR ), US has been able to keep the Median age at 39.1 in 2024 through large scale migration of Hispanic population with higher TFR and selective migration of young couple from other countries . The Median age was 35.3 in 2000 and the trend shows the existence of a real issue of increasing Median age . With the present policy of deportation and restriction for immigration , the Median age is likely to reach 45 within a few years and USA is likely to face an acute problem of shortage of active people .
- China
China’s story of economic success is the result of pragmatic policies formulated and implemented by Deng Xiaoping for opening the Chinese market to the companies in the developed world with one important condition to transfer technologies to the factories set up in China . China accepted the best of competing technologies available in the world for setting up factories in different provinces . The technologies were absorbed by Chinese companies independently for operation for a decade or two . Thereafter , China launched a massive project to absorb the positive aspects of these competing technologies for setting up state of the art Chinese owned companies . Simultaneously , China upgraded its universities with associated research parks for converting these universities as centres of excellence in research competing with the best in the world .
In 1993 Jiang Zemin took over as President . Nicholas Kristof of NYT wrote in an article published in the Foreign Affairs magazine that “ The rise of China, if it continues, may be the most important trend in the world for the next century. When historians 100 years hence write about our time, they may well conclude that the most significant development was the emergence of a vigorous market economy—and army—in the most populous country of the world “ . China of today has an economy and an army comparable to USA.
4.1. China’s challenges :
4.1.1. Deng Xiaoping fixed a two term limit for the Presidents for ensuring that there will be the possibility for transfer of power after five years or at the maximum ten years. However , Xi Jinping got this provision changed so that he could continue in power for successive terms of five years .
4.1.2. While the economy has made rapid strides, the disparity in income continues to be high . There have been large scale closure of medium scale factories resulting in retrenchment of employees who were sent back to their own villages . This is causing certain social tensions .
4.1.3. Adoption of one child policy has resulted in a fall in fertility rate pushing the median age up . The median age in China in 2025 is around 40 and it will continue to go up. This could be a problem .
4.1.4. Huge investment in infrastructure projects undertaken by provinces which are not giving adequate return on investment have increased the non-performing assets of banks in a big way . Failure of real estate companies is also causing strain on banks .
4.1.5. China is having territorial disputes with most of its neighbouring States particularly the countries bordering South China Sea and East China Sea . Most of these countries are allies/partners of USA and a conflict in the region could draw USA into the conflict .
4.1.6. China is categoric in its claim over Taiwan and any attempt to take over Taiwan could result in escalation of the conflict .
4.1.7. Most of China’s investments in BRI project in other countries do not give sufficient return . This may cause severe strain on Chinese banks which have advanced the money . China will be compelled to abandon some of thee projects .
4.1.8. Power struggle in the party : China always had power -struggles within the party and the possibility of another power-struggle can not be excluded . It is the iron hand of the Chinese Communist Party which holds the country together. China’s prosperity is controlled by 11 or 12 rich provinces in the East and in the South and the possibility of these provinces asking for more autonomy can not be ruled out .
5.EU With a GDP of around 19 Trillion US $ ( IMF estimate 2024 ) , EU is already an economic super power . EU has an excellent ecosystem for research and development and consequently EU is a leader in technology in several fields. EU does not have enough natural resources within the member-nations and hence EU will be obliged to make arrangements with other countries in Africa , South America as well as Australia for meeting its requirements . An arrangement with Russia could be a preferred European solution EU does not have a unified military command and hence it is militarily weak as a group . In fact , the founders of EU had envisaged a political union as a federal setup and the draft of a Constitution was made by a Committee headed by former French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing for moving forward in this direction. However , EU member-nations s did not accept this Constitution and hence EU remains fragmented in the military sense . NATO is not a real answer for EU . EU has two issues to be sorted out for becoming a Global superpower : A unified military command , an arrangement with Russia for preventing war in European soil .
6.India
India’s GDP was 468 billion $ in 2000 and it has gone up to 4.16 trillion $ in 2024 , ie , 8.9 times in 24 years and Indian economy continues to grow at 6 to 7 % per year now. With great emphasis on self-reliance , India has set in motion a process for substantial increase in local production . India continues to have trade deficits with several countries and has launched an action plan for balancing the trade in a timebound manner . However , India will have huge trade-deficits on energy imports and balancing this deficit through surplus in service -trade . Since India does not have enough indigenous resources for oil and gas , it puts India into a disadvantage . While responsible use coal for electricity generation with adoption of new technologies for recycling of CO 2 could be a solution to some extent and adoption of nuclear power could further improve the situation, energy-security will be possible in India only with the mining and use of natural hydrogen in a big way .
India has made substantial progress in the local production of military hardware including all the equipment needed for modern warfare . In the normal course , India will have enough economic power , military power and diplomatic power in 10 to 15 years for reaching the status of a global power . India has an efficient diplomatic corps and it could be reinforced as India moves forward. In essence , India has the possibility to become a global power within two decades.
- Potential challengers to USA :
China is a clear challenger to US hegemony now . European Union which maintains friendly relations with USA could also be a challenger. India is not really challenger now. USA considers that India also could be a challenger in the near future. USA does not want any one of them to challenge USA’s hegemonic position .
7.1. China , the real challenger to US hegemony
China has comparable situation with USA in economic power , military power and diplomatic power . While it is true that China prospered through trade with USA and is still dependent on USA for its huge trade-surplus , China has been diversifying its exports and is getting ready to face the tariff war . Will USA be able to reduce imports from China through local production or through imports from other countries like Vietnam ? . Certainly not in the near future . The net result on US economy will be higher inflation and loss in purchasing power for working class population. US is dependent on China for rare earth metals and China is taking full advantage of this monopoly -situation . In the normal course , a large scale trade war between USA and China may not take place in short-term .
7.2. Comparison of military strength
Following table gives a comparison as in 2024
| China | USA | |
| Active personnel | 2 million | 1.3 million |
| Total aircrafts | 3309 | 13043 |
| Fighter aircraft | 1212 | 1790 |
| Tanks | 6800 | 4640 |
| Aircraft carriers | 3 | 11 |
| Submarines | 61 | 70 |
Source: globalfirepower.com
It is clear that China has comparable military power with USA as of now . However , the future warfare could be different with AI, drones. robots , lasers etc and hence much will depend on who takes the lead in the matter within a few years .
As of now , one can easily say that China is a real challenger to USA to become a Global power with its own sphere of influence . If it happens , cold war will be the natural outcome with China and USA trying to outsmart each other . The real risk for USA will be the huge national debt , high inflation , loss of momentum of economy and attempts by other countries for de-dollarization . The real risks for China will be an economic crash , internal power struggle , rebellion by rich provinces for autonomy and border-clashes in the South China Sea and North China Sea .
In any case, USA and China will continue to be two major global powers laying the foundation for a de facto multipolar world .
7.3. EU
Since EU does not have a common military command and diplomatic corps, EU is not likely to be a Global power challenging US hegemony . Future will depend on the reorganization of EU for making the great vision of General de Gaulle for having the geographical space between Atlantic coast and the Ural mountains a war-free zone a reality .
7.4. India is not a challenger to the US hegemony now . As and when India’s GDP crosses 20 Trillion US $ and when India develops indigenously all the weapons required for a modern warfare , India is likely to be a challenger to the US hegemony . USA will do everything possible to prevent this possibility . However , US may not succeed
- Conclusions
8.1. Collapse of Soviet Union led to the emergence of USA as the only hegemonic power in the world . USA is trying to maintain this status and will do everything possible to prevent other nations to achieve the status of Global power challenging USA for paving the way towards a multipolar world .
8.2. China is already a challenger to US hegemony setting the beginning towards a multipolar world. China will face considerable opposition from USA and its allies in its march towards the status of a Global power .
8.3. India is likely to be a Global power challenging US hegemony by 2040. India will face opposition from both USA and China
8.4. EU has the possibility to become a Global power with certain restructuring and an agreement for accommodating Russia within Europe. Accommodating Russia within Europe is a necessity for EU to have access to the enormous wealth of natural resources of Russia . This will also ensure the existence of a war-free Europe .
8.5. In a world of mounting geopolitical tensions , it will be necessary for an aspiring global power to have strategic autonomy for supply chain. In a systematic process of transferring manufacturing activities to China during the last 30 years , USA has really lost its autonomy for supply chain for several important materials . It will be necessary for US companies to bring manufacturing back to USA in line with the Make in America strategy of President Trump. It could be painful and expensive . However , there is no choice.
Disclaimer :- Views are author’s own and does not represent the views of IIRF
8th September 2025
