Synopsis : Any war should be considered as avoidable and the UN security council is responsible for sorting out difference of opinion among Nations before it escalates into a war . Five permanent members of UN have a great responsibility for maintaining peace and order in the world through dialogue . Yet there are five major ongoing wars now and the total casualties in 2024 were as follows : Ukraine – 49881, Palestine- 22386, Myanmar – 13049 , Sudan – 9401, Ethiopia – 7846 ( source https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war ). Israel-Iran war is the latest one . Is the apprehension of Israel about annihilation by Iran’s nuclear weapons real ? . Probably Yes. Does not Israel have nuclear weapons which could always work as a deterrent ? . The answer should be YES. Are there no mechanisms under UN to sort out this matter ? . The answer should be YES. Yet , there was a war showing clearly the fragile world in which we live.
1.Introduction
Common sense would say that it was possible to avoid this war . However , what is uncommon nowadays is common sense . It is quite clear that Israel started the war causing huge damages to Iran . However , Iran counter-attacked in a decisive manner much to the surprise of Israel. Preliminary estimates show that there were 28 dead and 3000 wounded in Israel and 400 dead and 3500 wounded in Iran . The toll could be higher on both the sides . The loss of properties is still under evaluation .
Is the apprehension of Israel about annihilation by Iran’s nuclear weapons real ? . Probably YES. It could be the result of the threat by president Ahmadinejad ( 2005 to 2013) for total destruction of Israel . Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei had also issued very strog statements against Israel . Does not Israel have nuclear weapons which could always work as a deterrent ? . The answer should be YES. Are there no mechanisms under UN to sort out this matter ? . The answer should be YES. Yet , there was a war showing clearly the fragile world in which we live. The eight year Iran -Iraq war had shown that Iran has the resilience to withstand a long war even if the entire Arab world , USA and USSR were against Iran . Strangely, Israel did help Iran with supply of military equipment and qualified technicians for maintaining the war planes supplied by USA to Iran during the Shaw regime . If Israel and USA had thought that they will be able to wipe out Iran through brutal force , they were mistaken because Iran has the resilience to withstand such attacks . It also means that they have not understood the lessons of history from the Iran-Iraq war . With a population of 93 million with hardworking and enterprising people and immense reserves of natural resources and strategic geographical location , Iran has the capacity to survive all these attacks .
2.What was Israel’s objective ?
Netanyahu convinced majority of the population in Israel that a nuclear Iran will wipe off Israel and hence Iran should be prevented from possessing nuclear weapons and a direct attack was necessary . One has to look at the political compulsions of Netanyahu . He is leading a coalition of 6 parties with a thin majority with 68 seats in a parliament of 120 seats . Two far right parties with a total of 13 seats are part of coalition and have always been clamouring for an attack on Iran . Netanyahu was losing public support and all the opinion polls showed that Netanyahu will lose the majority if an election was held today inspite of the fact majority of the people support him for his action against Hamas. He had a very narrow victory in a vote in Knesset on 18th June 2025. His survival instinct as a political operator convinced him that it is the right time to attack Iran . However , he had overestimated Israel’s capabilities and underestimated Iran’s capacity to counterattack .
3.US flip flop
President Trump threatened Iran with massive attacks by US unless Iran agrees for negotiations with US. As usual, Iran ignored these threats irritating President Trump . MAGA Americans were not unanimous on attacking Iran . President Trump sent the B 2 bombers for bombarding the nuclear sites and proclaimed victory for obliterating the entire nuclear facilities of Iran . IAEA announced that there was no signs of radiation . If both these statements are correct, it would mean that there is a new way to destroy questionable nuclear facilities without radiation !!!. Since Netanyahu’s political existence depended on continued attacks on Iran , Israel wanted to continue the operation . President Trump put his foot down and Netanayhu had to comply . President Trump’s real concern was not the Middle East . It was really his own interests because he could have got into trouble if he dragged US into the war in the Middle East .
4.Regime Change
Regime change in this context has two dimensions : regime change in Iran and Govt-change in Israel . Both Israel and US wanted a change of regime in Iran . When they realised that such a regime change is not easy , both backtracked . Ayatollah Khomenei has already presented a list from which his probable successor will have to be chosen . Death of Khamenei may not mean regime-change . While majority of the people in Iran would like to have a more liberal social order , the grip of clergy on the Govt is so tight that a major change in social order may not be easy . It will be interesting to remember the way in which USA and UK together destroyed democracy in Iran through clandestine actions by overthrowing a democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953 and putting him in prison and house arrest till his death . If USA and UK together had not undermined democracy in Iran , it could have been a prospering democracy now .
On the contrary, the situation in Israel is different . Being a democracy , change in Govt is a normal process. Netanyahu is likely to lose the next election paving the way for ATID party for taking over the leadership. Proportional Electoral system in Israel would always need the formation of a coalition .
- Conclusion
5.1. In my view , Iran and Israel ( including Palestine ) will be two influential nations in the Middle East in future and they are destined to live with cordial relations in their own interests and in the overall interests of the region . With its population of 93 million , Iran is the most populous nation in the Middle East with a total population of around 300 million ( excluding Egypt and Turkey )
5.2. Both USA and EU will be needing Iran more than Israel because of Iran’s strategic geographical location for connecting the mineral- rich Central Asia to the Indian Ocean through Iran ( Chabahar port ) and to the Mediterranean sea through a land route through Iran , Iraq and Syria . India-Russia-Iran promoted multi – mode International North South Transport Corridor ( INSTC ) is in the right direction . Part of INSTC could be used by both USA and EU . Peace in Syria is also crucial for promoting the land route to the Mediterranean sea and both USA and EU are interested .
5.3. The two state theory in Palestine will have to be abandoned for having a single nation of Israel accommodating Palestine with some adjustment for political autonomy and a combined economic zone . The proposal made by the UN mediator Count Bernadotte in 1948 could have led to a solution of a Single State of Palestine with a Jewish State and Arab State within Palestine with Jerusalem to have an independent status . However , he was assassinated by extremist-groups of Jews in Jerusalem . It was unfortunate . It may appear strange that both Iran and India voted against the UN resolution for the partition of Palestine based on religious criteria.
